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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (75367)	1/2/2023 10:05:55 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	1 Recommendation Recommended By ajtj99 Respond to of 97932

I'm reading a lot of 2023 predictions and I hesitate to do the same however I will say what I am doing though I've commented in the past as I go. Last year I was defensive with few long term holdings and mostly day trading. My long term holdings were high yield dividend stocks, and early in the year midstreams and energy which I sold by midyear. I was early on selling the energy but my midstreams are still slightly below where I sold so other than missed dividends, it was correct. As I said I would, I have sold almost all my high dividend stocks. I'm only holding ones that yield in the 10% range and have dumped everything else though I have been swing trading a few. (Bought BDJ a week or so ago at $8.40 and sold Thursday or Friday at $9.06-7) I dumped THQ, UTG, UTF, DNP etc. My feeling is dividends were last year's trade but now that Treasury yield is near 5%, why would people tolerate equity risk for the same yields in 99.9% safe treasuries? People buying even lower yield blue chip stocks like 2-3% I think are crazy. The only people buying I think are funds forced to be 100% invested in something so that is the safest place to hide. As I said before, I am cautious about utilities as they spend on solar/wind farms and the infrastructure to reach them and hook to the existing central grid by mandate. I am feeling a bit safer because of the split house/senate now however I'm still not confident that there isn't still risk in the current entitlement trend about everything these days. What if utilities are deemed a "right" even if nobody pays their bills? Healthcare is mandated to bill below costs? We are already seeing the effects of politics on investment and supply in some sectors like energy. The hostile environment has resulted in less new oil discoveries this year than any other time in history. Where is future supply going to come from? As for black swan risk, there are many but off the top of my head just because of recency, I listened to a speaker that pointed out that what we are currently doing with China and Russia is basically what we did with Japan leading up to WW2. We are restricting supplies they need for billions of people. Japan bombed pearl harbor for us cutting off oil and rubber. Will China lash out over semiconductors etc? I don't think we are at that point yet but we are progressing down that path at the moment. Meanwhile China is cornering the market in raw materials, olive oil etc. We are already in an economic war. As for everyone screaming commodities, I'm not convinced. This isn't 1970s inflation. This is services not goods inflation so far. Liquidity will determine the path forward. If the Fed blinks and/or the White House keeps throwing money out to "help" fight inflation, then yes, it will spread back into goods. Otherwise, barring droughts, war etc, I don't think corn, beans, pork bellies etc will be the trade. Oil? Not sure. Russia will sell to China and India so they will buy less from everyone else leaving more for those sanctioning Russia. It's a wash in my view. Whoops, have to run so I'll leave this incomplete.

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (75367)	1/2/2023 10:45:55 AM
From: Sendme	2 Recommendations Recommended By Lee Lichterman III Lou Weed Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97932

Trying to fit price action into a Wycoff pattern isn't really following the structure as closely as I would like to see. So the alternative would be a possible Elliott corrective wave. I see an expanding flat and then a running flat. 3 Elliott Wave Flat Patterns to Know and Understand \| CariGold Forum Three Types of Elliott Wave Flats (elliottwave-forecast.com) The theory would suggest that they happen more often in waves 2 and 4 of a bigger wave count. So looking out at the 15 minute chart, this could be a wave 4? 30 minute chart. That would fit in with a potential bearish chart that would suggest that this is just a wave 1 down on a 4 hour chart? This could just as easily move up first this week, we are again in the middle of any type of pattern which is difficult to predict. The better entries IMHO are going to be more towards the 3900 level if it goes up first or down at 3700 if it goes down first.