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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (2095)	2/12/1998 2:45:00 PM
From: Mohan Marette	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Ramsey: Here are couple of issues you can check out while in China: 1. Devaluation of Yen- See if you can find out anything about how soon the Renminbi will be devalued or at least what the feelings are on this subject. 2. Decreased inflow of foreign capital- How the Chinese are coping with decreased inflow of foreign capital and how is this going to impact the projected GDP growth of 8-9%.

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (2095)	2/12/1998 5:59:00 PM
From: Thomas Haegin	Respond to of 9980

Ramsey, glad I could offer a European view. On SEA effects on Europe I think we are generally less affected that the U.S. in that Europe mainly trades among itself, then with the U.S. then with the countries in Eastern Europe (especially Czech Rep., Poland and Hungary), and Latin America, where especially the Spanish have strong links. Individual cos. may feel an impact: We had reports here that Malaysia has cancelled a CHF 60m order for trainer planes from Switzerland. So this particular co. (I think it was "Pilatus Werke") sure was hit. ABB is also a victim of some postponements and cancellations of big ticket power/river dam projects in the region. But ABB is well diversified, so the imact to them while being relatively big, is not threatening. The same goes for western building contractors that should build in Malaysia and Jakarta. I think German Bilfinger & Berger was affected as was Philip Holzmann. But by and large, we get more upset from slowdowns over in North America and local Europe. I really think (roughly speaking) that in terms of volume and importance "strategic importance" Eastern Europe is to us what the Pacific region is to the (western) U.S. economy, or Latin America at that. Europe should also be a big player in Africa, but I don't see this on a broad scale. The French as the only ones IMO that continue to do quite a lot of business there (Elf, Total, Petrofina; maybe arms dealings as well...). I don't think the typical senior manager at a European corp. is much concerned about SEA, and Japan is pretty much closed to the rest of the world anyway. If I find some percentage statistics somewhere, I'll post them here. On your trip to China, I'd like you go visiting shopping malls and department stores and the like: What TVs do they sell, what women's cosmetic products, what clothes? Local stuff? Imported goods? How expensive or cheap is it? What cars do they use? What buses? Still so many bicycles there? Maybe chat with the hotel manager how his bookings are effected as of late. Has his personal life changed? Friends being out of work? If you fly inside the country, how loaded are the planes, how crowded the airport? How is the political climate? Would be nice if your interpreter could read the local newspaper for you. Has the mood or life changed in Bejing lately? Frankly, I doubt it as Bejing is far away from Hong Kong, Singapur Shanghai and the more troubled southern countries of the region. I've never been to Bejing. A good colleague of mine and her husband went there last autumn. They were everywhere in China. She spoke not too exited about Bejing: Pretty much administration only and not a lot of history to see, except for the forbidden city and some parks. But the city itself is dull and grey she said, very much communist architecture, lots of concrete. She liked Shanghai and the south much better. Hey, above all, do not forget your are on holiday!! So enjoy it, really. Thanks a lot, Thomas