Welcome to the first weekly report of the 2023 Biotech Values Charity Biotech Stock Picking Contest!
First of all, I don’t want to bring on some curse by mentioning it but this first week has some interesting, and positive results. And a new and improved Report spread sheet. But first the news.
In an abbreviated post-holiday trading week, both the NASDAQ Composite and the Biotech Indices ended in the black by a per cent or so. Looking at the individual stocks we see that some really big winners: I note that in the top four slots, we see that this week at least the contestants had a knack of finding something worthwhile in stocks that the previous year had been, well, dogs. JSPR now +206% was -94% last year, INZY now +77% was -85%, BLCM now +47% was -52%, and CLSD now +46% was -59%. Starting with the big winner, JSPR, on Monday they had a press release announcing J asper Therapeutics Announces Positive Clinical Data from a Phase I/II Trial of Briquilimab as a Conditioning Treatment in Sickle Cell Disease and Beta Thalassemia and then the next day followed with Jasper Therapeutics Announces European Union Orphan Drug Designation for Briquilimab as a Conditioning Treatment for Patients Prior to Receiving a Stem Cell Transplant. On Tuesday the popped up from $0.47 to over $3 a share, a gain of over 500%, before drifting back to $1.48 and a still hefty +200% gain for the week. INZY had a steady improvement throughout the week, for no apparent (to Yahoo! Finance at least) reason. Ditto a thinly traded BLCM. More than two thirds of the selected stocks were in the black for the week. Though that means we did have some losers as well. FATE (a somewhat portentous ticker), dropped -58% after announcing a break up with a collaboration and option agreement with Janssen Biotech, a subsidiary of J&J. They also cut staff by 20%. Happy New Year!. GRPH, down -44% “voluntarily paused” a Phase 1/2 study of their sickle cell disease treatment.
The contest portfolios did great. Only one portfolio ended up in the red, and that was last year’s winner GENEGURU, but he was off only -3%, and none of his picks did terrible this week. (I’m breaking the general rule of not mentioning the less successful participants, which I will adhere to from here on out.) Both the average and mean portfolios posted profits of +$7.2k and +$5.3. The top performing portfolio was BLADERUNNER, taking his 20% position in JSPR and posting a $50k profit for the week. Congratulations! Second place ALONER, made $11k profit for the week, owning CLSD and a number of other high return choices.
And now a few words about this year’s report spreadsheet, which is instantly generated when the inputs from Yahoo! are pasted in (last year I needed to fiddle a bit each week). There are several differences of note. A primary one is presenting the results in terms of the portfolio profit or loss (P/L), as this really is the number that matters as the various contestants jockey for supremacy. This week the “recent” and the “Year to Date” (YTD) time ranges are identical, so I blanked out the reports for one or the other time range.
When discussing the composite indices, I include P/L results for a “Index Portfolio” where $100,000 purchases an index tracker of one index at the beginning of the contest. When discussing individual stocks, the figure of merit for performance is the current stock price divided by the price at the beginning of the contest. The “Recent” performance tracks the change in that value for the week. This is what I moved to at the end of last year, to stop poorly performing issues jumping in front of the more interesting ones, at least in terms of the portfolios. The Average and Median performance over all the portfolios is measured in P/L. That the median portfolio has a gain of $5.3k for four days of trading may exceed any of last years results.
With only 15 participants this year, the top ten include that median, in fact covering fully two thirds of the portfolios each week. I will be reporting the top performers for the previous week as well as the YTD standings. The YTD rankings includes how far back the 2nd and lower placed portfolios are from the current YTD winner. Again, unlike any time last year, BLADERUNNER has opened up a sizable lead of $38k ahead of second place ALONER. I am still comparing the contestants' portfolio results vs the index portfolios', but that was done last year in part because it was a drag showing week after week of negative numbers. If you are beating the S&P Biotech Index, you could take some pride in doing better than the market. If the rest of the year continues in this vein, then I might drop that comparison.
Since there are far fewer contestants this year, should I list the FIVE top performing portfolios for the last week and the top FIVE performing portfolios for the YTD instead of just listing the top TEN portfolios YTD? By listing the top five in two categories, it will, by the nature of the curb of biotech, probably show nearly everyone at some point, or should I stick with the tried and true top ten YTD? I would appreciate any feed back on that.
Also, new this year, I will present the performance of the individual stock picks for the number one recent and YTD portfolios. Here we can see how much BLADERUNNER’s standing resulted form his choice of JSPR. The third column I give the stocks picks total value, and the net P/L, as a fraction of the entire portfolio. The difference between the variations of the fourth and fifth column is that the fifth column includes the effects of the varying allocations. The last column gives a number showing how much change relative to the current price will result in a contribution of $1,000 to the portfolio cash value.
So, until next week. BLADERUNNER has staked a solid claim on the lead, but it is still early days.
Report Time Ranges
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From
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To
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Recent
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12/31/2022
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12/31/2022
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YTD
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12/31/2022
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Index Portfolios’ Performance
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Symbol
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Recent P/L
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Recent %
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^IXIC
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$982.31
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1.0%
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^NBI
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$1,784.24
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1.8%
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^SPSIBI
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$544.12
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0.5%
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Share Performance
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Recent Performance
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Top Five
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Bottom Five
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Symbol
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P/L / Initial Price
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Symbol
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P/L / Initial Price
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JSPR
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206.4%
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FATE
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-58.0%
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INZY
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77.1%
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GRPH
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-44.3%
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BLCM
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48.6%
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PHAT
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-33.0%
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CLSD
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46.4%
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PRVB
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-13.9%
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MBIO
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41.3%
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PDSB
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-13.8%
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Average and Median Portfolio Performance
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Recent P/L
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Avg.
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Median
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$7,244.30
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$5,290.15
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JACK HARTMANN
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Top Ten Portfolio Performances
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Top YTD Performers
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Contestant (Prev. Rank)
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YTD P/L
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vs. Top Portfolio
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P/L vs. ^SPSIBI
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(Rec. P/L)
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1 - BLADERUNNER (— —)
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$49,617.43
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——
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$49,073.31
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$49,617.43
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2 - ALONER (— —)
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$11,253.75
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$38,363.68
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$10,709.62
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$11,253.75
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3 - DEW DILIGENCE (— —)
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$8,450.02
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$41,167.41
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$7,905.89
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$8,450.02
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4 - ERIKOTTO (— —)
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$7,848.56
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$41,768.87
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$7,304.44
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$7,848.56
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5 - TOMATO (— —)
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$6,839.23
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$42,778.20
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$6,295.11
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$6,839.23
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6 - BMAZ001 (— —)
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$6,631.88
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$42,985.55
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$6,087.76
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$6,631.88
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7 - BULBAMAN (— —)
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$5,444.49
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$44,172.95
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$4,900.36
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$5,444.49
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8 - JACK HARTMANN (— —)
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$5,290.15
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$44,327.28
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$4,746.03
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$5,290.15
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9 - RAJU_BIJLEE (— —)
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$3,591.68
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$46,025.75
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$3,047.56
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$3,591.68
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10 - RKRW (— —)
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$2,049.18
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$47,568.25
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$1,505.05
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$2,049.18
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Top Portfolios’ Contents
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Top YTD Performance Portfolio (BLADERUNNER)
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Symbol (Rank)
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Initial Allocation
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Current <Value | Return> %
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YTD % Price Change
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YTD Portfolio P /L
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% Current Price Change / $1,000
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CRDF
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20.0%
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13.8% | 1.4%
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3.6%
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$714.29
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4.8%
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CRIS
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15.0%
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11.9% | 5.8%
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19.1%
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$2,858.18
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5.6%
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ENTA
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5.0%
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3.6% | 0.7%
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6.9%
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$346.09
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18.7%
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IOVA
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10.0%
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6.7% | -0.1%
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-0.5%
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-$46.95
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10.0%
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JSPR
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20.0%
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41.0% | 83.2%
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206.4%
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$41,283.64
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1.6%
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MBIO
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10.0%
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9.4% | 8.3%
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41.3%
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$4,134.18
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7.1%
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MGTA
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5.0%
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4.1% | 2.3%
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22.4%
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$1,121.52
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16.3%
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MRSN
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15.0%
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9.5% | -1.6%
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-5.3%
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-$793.52
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7.0%
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