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Non-Tech : Income Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Privately who wrote (49141)1/19/2023 1:18:24 AM
From: Elroy  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 52119
 
Re: Ok, for anyone interested in Income Investing, I''m curious why you WOU

However, I would not recommend UAN to anyone as an "income investment".

Well, lets see. A nice income investment would return you 7% per year in perpetuity, right?

UAN seems like it will probably outperform that, by a long shot.

If you buy it for $103 Thursday, you're going to get $35-$45 back in 2023, and then probably something above $15-$20 in 2024.

That's about 8 years of ~7% returns in just two years.

Yes, what happens down the road is unknown. But UAN is primed to deliver massive income going forward. More income than most securities owned by most people here, I think. If you want income, more income is better than less income, right?

It's possible that something pushes fertilizer prices below $100/ton and UAN goes back to zero distributions. It's also possible fertilizer prices double in the nexy two years, and UAN pays unit holders back their $103 investment in three years. We don't know.

The fact that we don't know the future, AND the future is volatile doesn't change the fact that at $103 UAN looks like a fantastic high income producing investment.

If you've got 95% of your income investments in preferreds that pay 5%, put 5% of your income investments into UAN that will pay ~33% next year, and who knows what the year after that. Makes sense to me. Diversification? What's wrong with diversification? Volatility, yeah, that's why it's paying 33% in 2023. 33% is high, and desirable, and not indicative of impending bankruptcy.

UAN paid $19.00 in 2022, with $10.00 if "one time charges". Even people who paid the high of the year last year (about $180) got more than 10% on their investment. That's an AWESOME return.

$19 last year, $35 this year, maybe $20 the next year, before you know if you've got all your investment back in your pocket. I think that compares very well to a stable 7% per year......