Since UAN is a variable distribution MLP, it is going to pay uni[/bl

And given what you said about a number of past dividend being reduced due to "one time issues", not sure how you can expect there not to be any "one time issues" going forward.

Of course we cannot be sure of much of anything going forward - it's the future.

In regard to "one time items" going forward, what I meant was the "known" one time items are over. In the past 18 months UAN has repurchased $9 per share of it own debt ($95 million of 9.25% debt), $1.2 per share in it own units ($12.8m unit repurchase) and spent $3m-$5m per share on turnaround maintenance. Those three known "one time items" are not recurring this year. They cost unit owners about $12 per share in trailing distributions, so to illustrate the distribution power of UAN the distributions were $19 and the "one time items which are not recurring this year" were $12, for a total of $31 of distribution power. That's based on last year's fertilizer prices and the plants operating at ~90% of production capacity. Prices are a touch higher this year, and production capacity is expected to be closer to 100% as the turnaround repairs just completed last quarter. Higher volumes and slightly higher prices means they should be able to distribute more than the "pro forma" $31 from last year. $40 this year is very reasonable.

Today fertilizer prices are a tough higher than they were last year, and (since the plant turnarounds were completed in Q3 2022) the manufacturing capacity is likely to be higher than it was last year. Higher prices and higher volumes indicate the distribution power is likely higher then before.

Nor how you can be confident of projecting dividends with any level of confidence beyond the next quarter,

UAN sells fertilizer forward. That means they've likely already sold H1 production at set prices, and so the key item for H1 distributions is how much they can produce and sell (operations), not current fertilizer price trends. Fertilizer price trends will resume importance in the Q3 2023 distribution, which will be paid in November 2023 (the 4th of the 2023 distributions). So if fertilizer prices are declining, the affect of that decline won't hit the distributions until November 2023.

UAN is IMO a speculative investment. Not an income investment.

Today UAN is $102. If someone buys a $102 security, and gets back $102 in income within 10 years ($10.20 per yaer), that's a pretty awesome income security, right? UAN will (I think) do better than 10 years in returning your investment to you in cold cash. It's an income security for sure, just a highly unusual one.

But you're right, it will absolutely NOT deliver stable quarterly cash flows. It will deliver highly variable cash flows. But, the fact that it delivers to unit holders ALL of its free cash flows and the fact new US fertilizer supply is hard to come by indicate that it is likely to outperform most stable income stocks, IMO.