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Non-Tech : Income Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RJCogburn64 who wrote (49145)	1/19/2023 10:58:38 AM
From: Elroy	Respond to of 52119

Re: Why would an investor NOT own this? the simplest answer IMO is that it has disappointed so many, many times UAN doesn't give forward guidance on sales and distributions, so it can't really disappoint. Whoever is making up the forecasts is disappointing you. Lots of investors don't / didn't understand the forward sales nature of UAN's business. For example, by now (mid-Jan) UAN has probably (we don't know, but probably) pre-sold its Q1 and Q2 fertilizer production at set prices. If fertilizer prices from today to April TRIPLE, UAN investors tend to get all excited because, you know, the price of the thing that UAN sells has tripled, while the costs have remained fixed. Then, when UAN reports Q2 and the sales price of fertilizer in Q2 has not tripled for UAN, everyone is disappointed. UAN paid $19 last year with $12 in one time charges. That's fantastic for a stock priced below $200. Just because it disappointed individual investors doesn't change the fact that paying $19 is a great income payout for a stock priced below $200. 2023 will be have least $30 in distributions, and perhaps as high as $45. This will become more clear when they report Q4 results in late Feb.