To: Ken Pomaranski who wrote (47636 ) 2/13/1998 9:09:00 AM From: Tom Carroll Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 58324
RE: Cost of Clik! Ken, Your argument amortizes the cost of the drive over only the first Clik! disk. That, of course, is ridiculous. By the time the digital-camera purchasers who are that stupid start buying the cameras, the Clik! drive will have already become established by people whose pricing skills are a little better than that. My guess is that, if the Clik! catches on as the digital film of choice, then most households will end up buying twenty or thirty of the little disks. Say twenty. That means the price per disk of photos, including the cost of the drive, would be twenty bucks. And that's at the initial retail cost, before the price cuts set in. Go ahead and cut the current price of flash in half. Then you'll get eight megabytes for fifty bucks, or the equivalent of a single Clik! disk for $250. That's a slight premium over the twenty bucks for the Clik! option, don't you think? Granted, the flash cost may come down even more than that in future years. What will be the cost of Clik! by that time, and how many of the drives will be out there and in use? The Clik! strategy mirrors the Zip strategy. By your reasoning, the Zip would never have sold at all, because the first 100 megs you get with that system cost two hundred bucks for the drive and fifteen for the disk, and $215 for 100 megs isn't competitive with hard disks. So far, over ten million fools have fallen for this pricey ruse. Do you actually know any professional photographers out there who are using digital cameras? I do. They love 'em for certain applications, and in some cases are even willing to pay up to ten grand for a camera. But they hate having to either buy a bunch of flash cards at high prices or to lug a laptop around with them so they can download the pics. This niche market, which has money, will gladly pay two hundred bucks for a little external Clik! unit that they can tuck into their camera bags and use to download their photos from their existing digital cameras. And once they get used to that system, they'll be sure that their next digital camera purchase is for a unit that comes with the Clik! drive built in. From there it's a clear road to standardization on the Clik! design. If indeed the Clik! campaign works, then this will most likely be Iomega's entry point into the digital film market. I say "if" in that last sentence, of course, because we still don't know enough to get beyond mere speculation. As to the technical questions about power and so on, there's no use arguing all that stuff until we know more hard facts about how these matters shake out. Because of that, I'm not yet including Clik! in my projections for the company, and you shouldn't either, positive OR negative. Cheers, Tom (long IOM)