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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (76054)	1/23/2023 7:28:10 PM
From: Sun Tzu	3 Recommendations Recommended By Lee Lichterman III Lou Weed towerdog Respond to of 97164

I held on to SOXS longer than I should have an as a result lost most of my profits. And yes, I gave SOX 60/40 chance to drop. But I don't hold on to losing positions. Losing means it goes up more one volatility adjusted ATR. One day loss, I can take (even though I should not) more than one vol, I really need to have the conviction of the trade to go against the tape. It happens, but not very often. And you have having selective memory. Review my posts and you'll see that I also talked about 2023 being directionally like 2018. Lou brought up my flexibility and I told him I trade what's in front of me, not what's in my head. Here's the SOX chart. My biggest mistake was to not switch sides when it went up from below the green line. I wasn't going to compound that mistake by holding on to it. Had I really done what I knew I should have, I would have gone long. It was a mistake not to. But there is a big difference between letting a trade scape and holding on to the wrong side of the order flow. This chart is messy, but still pretty self evident how my trading style would have traded it. Make a guess where I went short and where I covered. HINT: it was almost a round trip and hardly worth it.

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (76054)	1/23/2023 8:22:52 PM
From: Sun Tzu	2 Recommendations Recommended By Lou Weed towerdog Respond to of 97164

I trade differently than most people you know. I am comfortable with ambiguity and I have said it several times that I always run two opposite scenarios in my head and choose the one that I see unfolding. I don't stay married to a losing position b/c that is not the scenario that gets played out. If you are going to smell BS on what I say, you need get rid of your own biases and selective memory and listen to the entirety of what I say and how I trade. I am not like the people who end up loving Tesla or AMAT or XOM or anything. I don't fall in love or hate a position. I don't believe in a "They" or conspiracy theories or what the government or anything other than what the market is doing. There are no spirits or mysterious forces in my trading system. The market doesn't have to do what I think. It can do anything at any time. It is on me to swim with the current. When the current changes, so do I. Here are some conversations on how I saw the market post October 13 and for continuity I'm including a one from just a month ago so you can see that my thinking didn't change because events confirmed it. ====================== Remember the October 13 bottom? Here's a conversation I had with Andy and with Steve Bradley on the 14th: Andy: "Ironically given your statement of the direction of the stock market you are betting on tails (down). The question is whether 3600 is pricing the odds favorably to to be short. Clearly with a 15% reward vs 1% riskless to you if tails the probability must be pretty low" Andy is a bonafide expert and a professional. And here we are at the bottom of the market after only 1 up day (and I had been short). So what do you think I answered him? Me: "I never short the market when my sentiment channel indicator is below the green line. That is where I wait for positive divergence to buy. Yesterday I nailed the bottom of the market using it." Then later, Steve asked me how I am going to play it and what I think the market will do: Steve: "When you say down then up… are you thinking double bottom around 3500 then maybe 4-8 week rally to 3900 ish?" Me: "Down to ~3525 then 6% - 10% rally. So far it has played out exactly as expected. But there is no room for complacency. The market can do anything at any time. I trade what's in front of me not what's in my head" . You can look up that conversation thread here: twitter.com It played out very close to what I predicted. . And here I am talking about having a good year on December 22nd: twitter.com Me: "Closed all my short positions today (sold at the open when CPI came in). Pretty much nailed the low of the day too. Tomorrow's PCE should be better than expected. Q4 EPS and economy should be good too. Probably more risk on than off for the rest of the year." Steve: "What do you expect for January?" Me: "Not sure yet. But I am more positive than the consensus. If I see a big sell off, I will buy it." =================