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To: deltarider who wrote (4418)2/12/1998 6:40:00 PM
From: tech  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 10786
 
One thing that you are leaving out is the increase of expenses.

You can not just measure the increase in revenues, without also taking into account the increase in expenses to attain those revenues.

I don't know what the new number is on how many people ALYD is planning to hire for 1998, but from what I remember Gruder had stated they planed to have approx. 500 employees FYE 1998.

Now if we look at the last 10 Q
link: sec.gov

_____________________________________________-

Nine Months
Ended
9/30/97
--------------

Operating Expenses
===================
Payroll and related costs $9,369,319
Depreciation & amortization 455,329
Other operating expenses 2,403,611
--------------

Total Operating Expenses $12,228,269

With an avg. of 230 employees.
_________________________________________________

This works out to approx. $4,526 avg. per employee per month.
[ ( ($9,369,319 / 9 months) ) / avg. 230 employees ]

Now if ALYD is going to add another 200 or more employees in 1998, that would mean additional $10.8 million in payroll costs alone.
(at the 1997 avg. cost rate of $4,526 per employee)

Another thing to note is the the ever increasing shortage of resources and qualified staff.

I think it would be logical to assume that as time goes by ALYD will not be able to keep their cost per employee down and each additional employee hired may have to be paid more and more as resources continue to dry up, and salaries for old employees may also have to be increased to keep them.

some companies, like KEA, are using other incentives to make sure they don't lose any of their staff .... and the flood gates haven't even opened yet.

link: biz.yahoo.com
'' Keane payed out $1.1 million, or the equivalent of one cent diluted) per share, as an additional 401(K) match for employees.''

Now I am not saying that ALYD won't be profitable, or that they won't have some good growth, all I am saying is that you have to take into account all these different aspects when you are talking about potential growth.

It would not be logical to assume that payroll costs in 1998 will be able to be kept at 1997 rates and additional employees would be able to be added at those same rates.

link: news.com

Any other winners
amidst this gloom and doom? "Computer programmers," said U.S.
software giant Oracle president Raymond Lane, whose firm had 1,000
open slots for programmers waiting to be filled for the bug
problem--among an estimated 200,000 open positions in the U.S.
information technology industry. "It is very difficult to keep programmers
nowadays. Salaries have gone up by 25 percent in the past year. These
technical people could leave a job anywhere in the world and tomorrow
start a new job somewhere else,"
he told Reuters.


The same supply and demand forces that will hit the companies who have yet to begin their year 2000 projects, or those who plan to do some of the work internally, will also hit the y2k companies who need to hire additional staff to meet demand for their services. I personally feel that we may see salaries increase by 35 to 50% once the bulk of the work comes in.

We can't just look at the revenue side of the equation without looking at the expense side.

JHMO.




To: deltarider who wrote (4418)2/12/1998 11:42:00 PM
From: Runner  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10786
 
Sold all my IMRS today, bought more ALYD. I usually wait till it drops closer to 15, but I have my doubts this time. Soon all tool companies will fly. This is already a great year for trading one company for another. Waiting for a panic. We need a well published failure in the Y-2000 field to get the snowball started.