The KMT side shall likely win the Republic of China presidential election 2024, perhaps, and flag-ceremony or variations of same might happen at anytime between 2024 - 2028, overlapping 2026 - 2032, a reasonable guess.
Should the KMT win the presidential as it just won all major mayoral (the news that has not been covered) ... and no the issue of win / loss had f*ck-all to do with city-level details, then can expect lots of well-equipped tourists arrive by civilian passenger jets, joining 400,000 - 600,000 fishing boats lifted folks, and all to engage in well choreographed peaceful flag-ceremonies at the presidential palace and at TSMC.
One might be correct to argue that the USA election 2024 is not at all important to the world whereas the ROC election 2024 matters much more.
MSM can spin all they wish but truth be told, the most dynamic of ROC, around 400,000 folks, work and live on the mainland PRC, and reunification of ROC and PRC shall be quite swift albeit blood-less than even the 2014 Crimea episode.
Am guessing Team USA has perhaps 70-months window to on-shore / re-shore semiconductor production for peaceful vertical integration might well happen 2028, a guess I always held to.
The biggest lesson out of the Ukraine episode for all ought to be that nuclear weapons are useless once a balance is achieved, and what then decides is old fashioned industrial war strategies, big-arrow logistics, robotic / drone / artillery tactics, and boots on the ground.
Further detailing, as ROC / PRC is a civil matter, any outside interference even if by indirect logistic support means would be an act of invasion and war and without support at the UN level, and deserving of defensive attack, and am sure Japan / S Korea / Australia / New Zealand are well aware, with the first two undoubtedly kept in check by N Korea and the latter two wishing to mind own peaceful trading business once rubber meets road per no-dog-in-conflict ala changing world order
IOW, any fight over ROC would be Mano a Mano with ROC on PRC's side. Food for thought?
Am guessing this below is wishful and naive thinking reuters.com
China likely to have 1,500 nuclear warheads by 2035: Pentagon Best to suspect 3,000 warheads deliverable unstoppably by oven-fresh technologies backstopped by equally unique defensive measures Message 34169451
Then the detailing, that be mathematics of peaceful integration, that which is typically not spoken about in USA theguardian.com
‘We are Chinese’: meet the Taiwanese who want to embrace Beijing rule But this month a poll in Taiwan found almost 12% of respondents still support unification. Other surveys have shown that figure to be about 5%-10%.
taipeitimes.com
... also, the ROC military gets a deciding vote, am guessing perhaps there are reasons why Team USA cannot sell HIMARS and F35s and Patriots and ... to Team ROC because the design details would end up in Moscow without much time-delay.
The truly fascinating 'thing' about the 'spies' recruited by PRC from the rank & file of ROC is that the amount of financial incentives are barely enough for google translate
... because the recruiters focus on the prospective recruitees who are true believers of a legacy-but-very-current-and-fashionable cause Message 33957199
Am guessing that the neoconlibtards really screwed up as far as strategic choreography is concerned, thanks to single-minded focus on Russia-Russia-Russia.
Mistake to treat the people of ROC as morons to be led down the Ukraine path.
reuters.com
Recommendation: GetMoreGold-and-StashSomeCrypto
bloomberg.com
Taiwan Holds Military Officers Suspected of Spying for China
Former Air Force officer recruited group of spies, CNA says US has worries about China infiltrating Taiwan’s military
5 January 2023 at 16:18 GMT+7
Taiwan detained three active-duty officers and a retired Air Force officer suspected of spying for China, the Central News Agency in Taipei reported, a case that hints at the extent of Beijing’s snooping on its much smaller neighbor.
The former officer left the military in 2013 and started doing business in China, where he was recruited to build an espionage ring, the semi-official media outlet said, without saying where it got the information.
Prosecutors suspect he recruited six officers and was paid between NT$200,000 ($6,510) and NT$700,000 via a shell company, CNA reported late Wednesday. He and three officers serving in the Air Force and Navy were detained in the southern city of Kaohsiung, and three other active officers were freed on bail.
Read: China Reportedly Paid Taiwan Officer to Surrender If War Started
Taiwan has struggled to weed out espionage within its armed forces by China, which has vastly more resources. The US — Taiwan’s biggest military backer — has long been worried about the self-ruled island’s ability to keep tech and other secrets out of Beijing’s hands.
Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said in November that China’s spying posed a “ serious threat.” Those comments came as authorities launched an investigation into an infantry officer for allegedly taking NT$40,000 a month from China to gather intelligence and surrender if a war ever erupted, CNA earlier reported.
See: Taiwan Extends Mandatory Military Service, Citing Beijing Threat
The spying problem affects the highest levels of Taiwan’s military. Former Vice Defense Minister Chang Che-ping — once Taiwan’s third most important military official — was investigated in 2021 due to concern about contact with a Chinese spy ring.
He was cleared and became as witness in a case that led to the indictments on spy charges in June of a retired general and lieutenant colonel.
The US is stepping up its military support for Taiwan, which last year detectedsome 1,700 warplane incursions into a sensitive air-defense identification zone and more than 660 ships in nearby waters. US lawmakers in December agreed to a $1.7 trillion spending bill that permits up to $10 billion in arms sales to Taiwan.
Taiwan’s Defense Ministry was tipped off about the latest case by individuals in the military, spokesperson Sun Li-fang said at a briefing Thursday. The ministry will cooperate with prosecutors as they investigate, he added.
— With assistance by Philip Glamann, Cindy Wang and Kari Soo Lindberg
(Updates with comments from Taiwan Defense Ministry spokesman.) |
