To: Edward Murphy who wrote (3827 ) 2/13/1998 12:37:00 AM From: Steven Bowen Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 12468
Ed, just to clarify, the numbers I used to try to value WinStars licenses were channel pops. The minimum opening bids in the LMDS auction are just based on population. If we assume an LMDS license is about 11.5 channels (that's what CVUS uses, I think it would be more correct to use 13, but what do I know) the first set of numbers I used, 0.50 for markets less than 100,000, 1.00 for markets 100,000 to 1,000,000, and 1.50 for markets greater than 1,000,000, would mean that on average, those markets will go for about 5.85, 11.70, and 17.50 respectively. These seem reasonable to low to me, as I would expect the markets such as New York, LA, and San Francisco to be worth closer to $25 per population, or $2.20 per channel pop in WinStar terms. No matter what happens, at least in a few weeks we won't have to guess at these numbers anymore. re "It will certainly be one of the main items on the conference call. I believe the company has delayed the conference call until after the auction results were in." The auction BEGINS on Wed the 18th. The conference call is Mon the 23rd. It sounds as if the auction will go on for weeks. I'm not real sure how the auction will go, but it might be a good guess that they will just bid one round per day. After all, there's nearly 500 markets and something like 140 bidders. The companies will get to submit bids on every market they're interested in, the FCC will have to tabulate all the bids, then distribute them, and companies will have to formulate the next round plans. As long as there's a company left that wants to bid (two companies, I guess actually), the auction continues. What I'm getting at is that the company will probably not have anything they can say about the auction by the 23rd. Actually, as long as the auction is going on (and before the auction), I believe it is against all the FCC rules for companies involved to make any type of comments at all. Collusion and stuff, you know. At the conference call, we'll probably just be able to get a bunch of "no comment" in regards to the auction. If what I'm guessing here is true, then it really makes me wonder why the conference call is so late. I had guessed too that it would be to discuss the auction.