Appears the balloons shall be with us awhile longer, because the balloon is possibly smarter than the spies watching the balloons, as there appears to be an understanding gap.
I would like to see evidence of a balloon that travels on Westerlies as definitive proof that the balloons are steerable.
VanHerck said at the briefing Monday that Norad had failed to detect the earlier balloons and later learned about them from the US intelligence community. “I will tell you that we did not detect those threats. And that’s a domain awareness gap that we have to figure out,” he said. Typically balloons like the one shot down fly above 80,000 feet and as high as 100,000 feet. This time, the Chinese balloon flew low enough to be spotted by commercial pilots and people on the ground. China used the balloon’s “maneuverability to strategically position themselves to utilize the winds to traverse portions of countries that they want to see. But this gave us the opportunity to assess what they were actually doing, what kind of capabilities existed on the balloon, what kind of transmission capabilities existed,” VanHerck said. The latest information only deepened the administration’s conviction that the balloon wasn’t “mainly” a weather-monitoring device as Chinese officials have claimed.
bloomberg.com
China Balloon Saga Spotlights Beijing’s Global Spying Push
Salvaged debris may be intelligence boon for US spy agencies China says scientific research balloons were blown off course
Iain Marlow
7 February 2023 at 08:31 GMT+8
The high-profile spectacle of an alleged Chinese surveillance balloon flying over the continental US is shining a spotlight on the prevalence of similar incidents around the world, from Taipei to Latin America.
While the US is believed to use such devices, officials have said the balloon shot down off the South Carolina coast this weekend is part of a broader global surveillance program rolled out by Beijing. It highlights the escalating intelligence battle between the US and China, utilizing everything from geostationary satellites and signals intercepts to old-fashioned spy craft. Now balloons have suddenly been thrust back to the fore as a key part of that arsenal.
A Chinese surveillance balloon is downed off the coast of South Carolina, US, on Feb. 4.
Photographer: Chad Fish/AP Photo
Officials in Beijing conceded that the balloon that drifted across the US mainland last week came from China, but they rejected the Pentagon’s claim that it was intended for spying, instead suggesting it was a purely meteorological instrument that drifted off track, and accusing Washington of hyping the incident.
That assertion may be harder to sustain as the US recovers parts of the balloon from debris scattered over a patch of about three-quarters of a square mile (1.9 square kilometers). The device was 200 feet (61 meters) tall and similar in size to an Embraer regional jet, said General Glen VanHerck, head of the North American Aerospace Defense Command.
In recent years, Chinese balloons have been spotted over countries across five continents, including in East Asia, South Asia and Europe, a senior US defense official said Saturday. The balloons had been previously spotted near Texas, Florida and Hawaii, as well as the Pacific Ocean island of Guam, where the US has naval and air force bases, people familiar with the matter said separately Monday.
In Taiwan, a balloon was reported to have hovered for several hours over the Taipei’s Songshan Airport, which is also used by the military base, in March, Central Weather Bureau Director-General Cheng Ming-dean said in an interview with local media. He said the balloon was similar to the one spotted in the US last week.
Read More: Balloon Recovery Begins as US Weighs What China Leaders Knew
The news of balloons appearing over Taiwan sparked concern in Taipei, with lawmakers from across the political spectrum urging the military to be on alert and to explain their procedures for how they plan to handle any future incursions. The balloons have been around for a long time, Cheng wrote in a Facebook =AZVT5QEVaUuQLp7jorObh4UzA-AcmDA7xMeBQk73gyoiE30jQ9x9fEdJ9ruIm24Zp6EndXWI1sF7eB5OPSCjUXvQRe9NhQUepjg0XItYpWRjhABX_wE2dMoVbi9Piy3qQTHc-b86FZEd-N7aTvqz-qI5tKDSkaFs6u2gM7JBJMbmFw&__tn__=%2CO%2CP-R]post on Saturday. He previously cited a high-altitude balloon seen hovering over Taipei in 2021.
Japanese media have reported at least two visually-similar balloons floating over different parts of the country. After a sighting over northeast Japan in 2020, then-Defense Minister Kono Taro said at the time he had confirmed it didn’t belong to the country’s Self-Defense Forces’ weather section. In the end, Japan’s police and military were unable to confirm who launched it, or why, broadcaster TV Asahi said. A second incident occurred in 2021.
Under President Xi Jinping, China has overhauled its military — pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into reorganizing the command structure and upgrading everything from warships to missile stockpiles. That includes investing in the near-space area as well. Those are regions “too high for most airplanes, too low for satellites,” which the Chinese consider a separate domain, according to William Kim, a consultant at The Marathon Initiative, a Washington-based think tank.
On Monday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning told reporters that a balloon reported over Latin America was, like the US one, also blown off course because it has “limited self-steering capability.” She said China follows international law, adding that “we will not pose any threat to any country.”
A US Coast Guard helicopter flies over a debris field during recovery efforts of a high-altitude surveillance balloon in the Atlantic Ocean on Feb. 4.
Source: US Navy
US-China Relations: A Long History of Balloons, Bombs and Drones
Balloons like the one blown apart Saturday aren’t uncommon. Alleged Chinese spy balloons were spotted on several occasions during President Donald Trump’s administration, including three instances where they traveled near sensitive US military facilities and training areas, according to people familiar with the matter.
VanHerck said at the briefing Monday that Norad had failed to detect the earlier balloons and later learned about them from the US intelligence community. “I will tell you that we did not detect those threats. And that’s a domain awareness gap that we have to figure out,” he said.
Typically balloons like the one shot down fly above 80,000 feet and as high as 100,000 feet. This time, the Chinese balloon flew low enough to be spotted by commercial pilots and people on the ground.
China used the balloon’s “maneuverability to strategically position themselves to utilize the winds to traverse portions of countries that they want to see. But this gave us the opportunity to assess what they were actually doing, what kind of capabilities existed on the balloon, what kind of transmission capabilities existed,” VanHerck said. The latest information only deepened the administration’s conviction that the balloon wasn’t “mainly” a weather-monitoring device as Chinese officials have claimed.
Balloon Capabilities
“They’re going to want to give evidence that this is indeed a surveillance balloon and debunk the idea that this is some sort of weather balloon,” Kim, of the Marathon Initiative said.
They’ll also be looking to understand the capabilities of the Chinese military. “What are they using to gather intelligence essentially?” he added. “If it’s taking pictures, which we don’t know yet, what kind of camera does it have on? If it’s collecting signals, which is another theory, what kind of intelligence-collection capabilities does it have?”
There’s also interest in whether the US can use the salvaged equipment to assess whether it contains technology from the US or its allies, as well the original manufacturers.
“The key question that no one is asking is who makes these balloons,” said Michael Raska, assistant professor and coordinator of the Military Transformations Programme at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore. If US officials can access the data or software code of the system, they may be able to retrieve some digital footprints, he said.
— With assistance by Bruce Einhorn, Isabel Reynolds, Samson Ellis, Philip Glamann, Chi Yui Siu, Jennifer Jacobs and Jenny Leonard
(Updates with new details on device from fourth paragraph.) |
