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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (76642)	2/10/2023 1:58:54 PM
From: Sun Tzu	2 Recommendations Recommended By ajtj99 skier31 Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 98055

Good observations and yes to Tuesday - Thursday fireworks. ========== SOX is priced on the basis that this quarter is the bottom. Any hints that the sales are not picking up will likely sink it hard, unless companies strongly state that the sales are in but just slightly delayed. Even then it depends on what else is going on. Equities - especially long dated equities (I know, SOX doesn't belong there), are vulnerable to the change in bond positioning. The priced in narrative has been that the Fed will cut by July and we're heading for a soft landing. The two parts of this statement are somewhat contradictory. If we're having a soft landing, then there is little reason for the Fed to cut rates. And if they see the need to cut rates, then the economy is too soft and the soft landing narrative is iffy. The counter argument to that is that fiscal policy from China (and Biden) will offset the monetary tightening. It is possible. But it is a narrow path.

To: The Ox who wrote (76642)	2/10/2023 2:24:03 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	1 Recommendation Recommended By ajtj99 Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 98055

Tuesday is already getting confusing. They revised up last month's number this morning so now next week's MoM should come in lower than all the estimates but I'd bet a buck nobody mentions it. I sold the stuff I bought the last few days on the pops today. I'm leaning towards up and that the last few down days were just weekly op ex games since there was a lot of puts at 4k and below but also a lot of calls at 4100. Still, the charts do look a bit risky so decided to just wait. The bounce in defensive sectors and the two day weakness in trannies shows it could be a top but I still think they want more up first. They're forecasting a couple nice days so I don't want to be glued to the screen.