'they' should call off the war...
...and the truth of the matter should be self evident soon.
I think very little utility in looking to "the usual suspects" for sources of unbiased news about the "day to day" in the war. The least suspicious of media sources these days seems it might be Al Jezeera... and as following them seems it takes most of the "team sports" elements (and thus the keen in interest) out of the coverage, so, maybe that's right. There is unlikely to be anything but propaganda from either side, and that means the "opinion" and analysis pieces from this guy, or that guy, discussing details, if they have that as a focus, with some claim to unique insight... They are simply unreliable... and, in all likelihood, purposeful participants in the "team sports" element... not unbiased reporters.
Also, not hard to parse that element we all can see... as indicating the war isn't going much of anywhere... Tactically it is essentially in a stalemate on the battlefield... but it is consuming men and material at an accelerating pace, now, in order to go nowhere faster at greater cost... clear efforts being made on both sides to tax and "drain the resources" of the other...
That leads to lots of reportage on "numbers"... each claiming how many soldiers or tanks have been lost on the other side... none of which is ever going to be independently verifiable...
Russia's fleet of modern tanks down by 50%; more than 140,000 Russians killed in Ukraine war: Updates
I think you can "monitor" the actual changes occurring easily enough... in those things the two sides agree on... as, where the war is happening, right now... where a particular instance of some success occurs, in a change of a mile or two here or there... or in some thing of value suddenly going up in smoke and it being provable also making it not useful to deny it...
The propaganda effort itself can become revealing... as seems to have occurred in this instance...
Beyond that, a survey of headlines probably more useful in parsing "how things are going" than effort focused on "the body count" or some tactical nuances... which clearly don't matter in a battlefield stalemate.
Clear enough what it means, though, when you see Ukraine begging for more ammo... and, in the tit for tat:
Russia’s Shadow Army Desperately Begs for Help in New Videos
Wagner Group releases graphic video of corpses in desperate plea for more ammunition
There is truth, necessarily, coming from both sides in what they are telling others they need to continue the fight... and in what you can see in the responses to those pleadings..
1st class of Ukraine fighters finishes advanced US training
EU aims to team up with defence industry to speed up ammunition output
Poland’s Duda says when Ukraine can expect tanks from Poland
Poland is considering handing over its MiG-29 to Ukraine
G7 Meeting going on now... with at least two facets:
This:
After meeting with G7 ministers, Kuleba says there will be ‘rapid arms supplies’
And, the next three:
1. No one is pushing Ukraine to negotiate with Putin, everyone sees there is no point
2. Czech president-elect warns against such Ukrainian victory which would ruin Russia
3. Ukraine's Foreign Minister and European leaders respond to Czech leader's hints about Ukraine's concessions in war
So, there are clearly "discussions" occurring that include more than supplying more weapons, faster... but, at the same time as it is clear that they will be supplying more weapons, faster... they are also talking about some element in planning for "an end game".
Perhaps a window being left open to find a solution... before it gets any worse than it is ?
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My opinion / analysis: That's encouraging, that there's more going on than only a constant ramping up with accelerations in supply, each then leading to new escalations in what is supplied. But, also, without Russia opting to retreat back inside their own borders... agreeing to "defend themselves" from inside their own territory, rather than by taking others... there's no path forward that allows for anything else. So, expect a flurry of diplomatic effort may be occurring, behind the scenes... before the new round of fighting begins, with another ramp up in scale, and in violence, and in more potent weaponry being applied... but, don't expect much useful to come of it, other than "more war"... and "changed war". In the degree Russia participates, it will likely be as a ruse, to enable cease fires that allow them to try to fix what's broken in their effort... as both sides are fighting to and beyond exhaustion and/or capacity limits... Otherwise, Russia will seek to use any such moves to create and exploit new divisions in the west that might slow the pace in the ongoing re-alignment occurring in Europe... occurring in result of Russian "miscalculation" imposing the need for NATO to survive and succeed in its primary purpose... and, now, expand and re-arm... while re-thinking future plans. Expect, "more of the same" until we see a real shift in tempo... "a spring offensive" by one side or the other that manages to change the dynamic on the battlefield... and convince the west to start supplying weaponry that can reach Russia where it matters... as in all probability that will be required to begin to "change Russians minds". It might be summer before most in the west are convinced to quit playing at "let's pretend Russia is attacking Ukraine, and not attacking Europe in a delusional quest to re-establish some mythical imperial "greatness" that Russia never had... and never will have... as long as they see themselves only as "cutout" figures... as historico-genetic artifacts... defined by history and trying to measure up... with a train of baggage in historical grievances still to resolve.
That rational people will instead consider "greatness" as a function of 1. the quality in the choices they make now... as those define their future potentials in future terms, [and not in terms of irrelevant historical comparisons]... and 2. in that degree to which they can institutionalize and sustain efforts enabling them in making better quality decisions... Meaning Russia, under "Putin the Great," is once again removing itself from the list of contenders.
I see nothing else altering prior analysis... that Russia is pushing itself to and beyond limits it can sustain. It will begin (continue) seeing its choices imposing reversals... not only on the battlefield (and, obviously, in the economy, in diplomatic relevance, etc.)... but, very likely, in changes in its own borders... as they prove incapable of defending them. I'd not try to put a clock on that... or predict the changes that will need to occur for it to begin to happen... but, also, don't see it being prevented, in future, by the status quo now ? I expect it means there will be future wars in Asia... that result from Russia's impotence and withdrawal from relevance... as Russia continually faces west, envying others accomplishments, instead of looking inward, and east, to their own wide open frontier... as sufficient enough challenges. They lash out... to avoid the risk of looking inward... and seeing what's there to see ?
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Too little considered in the discussion about "how everyone is running out of weapons"... is that its silly, in context of the west's ability to ramp up, if they want to and need to... simply not yet having determined they need to with any sense of urgency. Perhaps that lack of urgency is a mistake... in more than only Trump's pointing it out as an invitation of exactly what they've enabled, now. The EU "aiming to" ramp up, now... more telling in terms of the LACK of any real threat the west posed to Russia... before... given they'd not even had the guns and ammo to threaten them effectively... which Russia clearly knew and incorporated into their calculus in considering going on the offensive against an weak and under-prepared opponent... expecting that to ensure a win without any meaningful opposition.
That failure to plan, is a plan to fail... is a trope for a reason... but, having a plan without the means to execute is obviously little better. The trend, in result, today... is one that will work to reverse decades of neglect in Europe's defense posture... moving the goalposts further and further out of Putin's reach over time...
Otherwise, the war consuming what it is, as it is... is far more about what the war is not...
It could easily be shifted, rapidly, to being more than it is now, were that expected to be useful, or become necessary. Poland is exactly right... that they could supply Ukraine with Mig 29's tomorrow... and change things. Ukraine is exactly right that we could... and should... be training F-16 pilots now... in case we opt to supply them, later... if that becomes necessary.
The west aren't overly well stocked in the guns and ammo used by Ukraine's ground forces to conduct an armed stalemate in trench warfare with artillery duels... because they'd never expect themselves to be bogged down and engaged that way... without an Air Force... in a WW I redux. The war being conducted as a ground war only... does help to limit it, in the pace and in range of potential expansion... if at a terrible cost to both sides. But the relatively limited spread of the war outside of Ukraine, thus far... the lack of any meaningful air war... the even more limited participation of naval forces... with the weapons provided Ukraine being deliberately "range limited"... deliberately shifts the "how" in conduct... relative to the "preparations" enabled before, with no one (except Russia) really planning and equipping for that.
Some of that is hinted at, too, in suggestions re change... as in the provision of aircraft, as above... or in shifting to provide longer range weapons... or in the elements re "learning curve" occurring...
Retired US General Hodges: With long-range missiles, Ukraine can liberate Crimea by end of summer
Other shifts occurring in the west:
German defense minister: Ukraine has to win
Europe’s Rebel Leader Woos Germany to Profit From Arms Race
There are always other "tells" of how well things are going, in stressful times... as occurred, for instance, in the suicide statistics in the U.S. banking sector back around 2008...
A top Russian military official is dead after falling out of a 16th-floor window, the latest in a string of untimely deaths
European natural gas prices hit 18-month low and near parity with crude oil as Vladimir Putin's energy war fizzles
And, the U.S. and China are both re-considering policy options in light of the implications gleaned from "how the war is going" thus far... and "the impact the war is having":
Russia’s year-old war on Ukraine has informed U.S. planning for prospective conflict with China
China to unveil peace initiative for Ukraine and Russia this month, says Beijing’s foreign minister |
