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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Oeconomicus who wrote (2893)	2/12/1998 10:41:00 PM
From: Roger A. Babb	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Bob, I had picked Friday 13th as the beginning of the market downturn. You all may be laughing at me next week, but I am heavy to shorts and cash right now.

To: Oeconomicus who wrote (2893)	2/12/1998 11:51:00 PM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

Is this the same guy who was trying to rationalize how DELL was trading at a low ratio to it's historical comparison to the S&P or some hogwash like that? I started to tune him out because it was so ludicrous. You know the top is near when Barton Biggs throws his hands in the air and jumps on board with a prediction for 9000. Everyone and their Grandma is predicting 9000, with Cramer leading the way. I find it interesting that I haven't heard too many people calling for 8700 or 9200 or 8450, etc. I just hear that simple to pick out of a hat 9000 figure. This looks like a blow off top. Specualtion is starting to kick in and the market is ignoring any bad news thrown it's way. The market did the same thing in 1987. One of the differences back then was the market was ignoring rising interest rates and other assorted events. Now it's ignoring Asia and the rest of the world's problems, threat of war, scandal in the White House, possible global recession, you name it. One of my friend's mother, my sister, neighbors, etc have all asked me if it's time to buy Microsoft. They say "It's splitting again!" They have no clue about how the market works, it doesn't interest them. They just want to buy MSFT because it is going up, they have no concept of valuations. They figure MSFT has gone up for 13 years so it will inevitably go up for the next 13 years. There is an obsession for investing in stocks. As long as people keep pouring money in the shorts will be confounded. Eventually valuations will get so excessive that there will not be enough money sloshing around in the world to push prices higher.