To: Don who wrote (541 ) 2/13/1998 7:34:00 AM From: Don Respond to of 1181
The post below is Ian's response to my TA of YURI, it's unbiased and should provide additional useful info. Check out his TA page at ze.net Degon, I basically agree with your analysis, YURI is forming a decreasing volume pennant flag (pennant flag means a little symmetric triangle) right on top of its 20 exponential moving average (20 ema). The 20 ema appears to be support as it consolidates. Usually these flags are continuation patters (and right now the trend is up). It's gotta make its decision which way to break out of the pennant triangle any day now... My personal style might be to wait and see which way it breaks, but I'm pretty sure it will be to the upside... The key is volume, (like you said, the couple of down weeks in the 2nd half of Jan were low volume, then it turned around at the beginning of Feb and shut up on high volume). The only thing that concerns me is the very high volume down day on 2/6.. on this day the money flow was very negative... However, since then, the money flow has been positive during its flag, which is good. The 12-26-9 MACD on the weekly chart crossed its singal line the week of Jan 16, and has been in an uptrend since (bullish). For the 12-5 weekly stochastics, there was a %K %D crossover at 20 (as you know, 20 is considered oversold) on the same week as the MACD crossover. 14 RSI and 11 CCI are forming rounding bottoms on the weekly chart (bullish), and are in uptrends on the daily chart (have not broken trendline). As far as DMI on the daily chart, +DI is above -DI and ADX is in a nice uptrend that started from a low of 16 on 1/2. For those of you who have no idea what all these technical mumbo-jumbo indicators are saying, they are all positive and bullish.. but indicators aren't everything, what matters is what the price does. I'm pretty sure the price will break to the upside, but no guarantees :). The direction of the market could always influence what happens. Oh, i forgot to mention, this whole uptrend is the last 10 weeks is sitting right on top of the uptrend support line that starts at its all time low in March 97. This appears to be good support. (But it's a very slow uptrend.. if YURI breaks to the upside here, one would hope to see a much steeper uptrend--at least if you're long). Personally, I would not be holding a short at this time... Ian