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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (77160)3/2/2023 11:20:44 AM
From: ajtj993 Recommendations

Recommended By
Lee Lichterman III
skier31
The Ox

  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 98287
 
Expectations in October were for a terminal Fed Funds rate of 4.75% to 5%. No that's been ratcheted up to 5.5% to 5.75%. T-Bills are following this track.



To: The Ox who wrote (77160)3/2/2023 11:40:09 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III1 Recommendation

Recommended By
ajtj99

  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 98287
 
I don't have my chart in front of me so just going from a fundamentals perspective, expectations are for terminal Fed fund rate around 5.5%. At some point, something breaks or inflation cools, even if it is a few years from now. So then rates come back down some though probably not ZIRP again. Assume somewhere around 3+% then average it out over the remaining 6-7 years.
4.25 - 4.5%???


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