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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elroy who wrote (72471)	3/2/2023 8:12:01 PM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78711

Re: BGS I went back to previous earnings & cash flow and found 2019 year is/was similar to what they see for 2023 (based on their Conference Call). The big difference is the div was cut by 50% and they gained efficiencies from warehouse logistics/processing. Also, I continue to see the packaged Jolly Green Giant stuff in my local grocery store and really have not noticed any price increases compared to all the other prices in the produce market. So go back and look how the stock was priced during 2019. I see $22/share as a reversion to the mean price. That may be where I may start to peel off some shares. FWIW, I loaded up all the way down to the recent low and brought my average cost down to $16.00/share. I think my highest cost shares are $27. Here is the link to Barchart.com for BGS. On the left you can select: (1) Income Statement; (2) Balance Sheet and (3) Cash Flow. You select annual or by quarter. I am not sure about seasonality but you can scan the quarterly revenues to see if this is the case. Remember they bought the company they just sold in 2021 so the revenues after 2021 reflect this Division they no longer own. I believe it contributed 18% to their total revenues. Now take the guidance they provided in the conference call and compare it to the 2019 Income & Cash Flow tables from Barchart.com. Their estimates are almost the same but slightly higher. That's how I arrive at the Reversion To The Mean price target of $20/share - $22/share (range was from $30- $18). For the Debt look at the Cash Flow by quarter but w/ higher rates and depending how they roll over the out years it may/could be higher. The FCF will be definitely be larger (remember the dividend cut) so they have more flexibility to pay down debt. FWIW, I have also been building a position in CAG discussed here. Their dividend is currently yielding 3.69%. Based on a BGS dividend yield of 3.69%, BGS s/d sell for $20.60/share. CAG has more growth expectations and is selling at a 14x PE.