Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sense who wrote (197071)	3/8/2023 10:38:04 PM
From: sense	Respond to of 217573

An addendum... on the nature of rate risks and "losing control of the narrative"... I do think a proper awareness of risks... requires acknowledging that the dollar... sucks... and still is... remains... the cleanest dirty shirt in the laundry... i would prefer... along with many others... that we require actually clean laundry, still... And, under no illusions that "making gold money, again"... results in banishing monetary frauds from the market... as a couple of thousand years of history confirms... both in the immutability, not immiscibility, of the metal... and in the remarkable malleability of the ethics of monetary system managers... I'm not a fan of the Fed... as should be clear... or "fiat" generally... or Biden's crew, in particular... as have seen WAY more than enough "ignorant" over the last two years... But, that the Fed are snakes... does not mean that they're the only snakes worthy of attracting our notice ? No shortage exists there, it turns out... rather than a surplus sufficient that "sharing" is not at all inhibited ? So, a quick check of "balances"... shows the US's shirts are getting cleaner... since 2021... when debt to GDP peaked at 135%... now perhaps at 124%... the future being dependent on "choices" not yet made ? Eurozone was down around 80% pre-covid... up over 100% post Covid... and... who knows, and who knows what it means... given an ongoing shooting war with Russia on the European continent, currently ? Europe clearly in for a rough ride... given the events of the last year... and no obvious short term "fixes" to the problems infecting the continent, now. The coming depression likely to be worse in Europe than in many other places... but, at least, thats likely to seem somewhat less important while dodging incoming rounds ? Japan, historically has been "the outlier' at something like 235%... a puzzle for everyone on that, it seems... which one might assume is "a cultural thing"... or... just chalk it up to accommodating demographics ??? But, China has been ramping rapidly... and, particularly in recent years... more only, as driven by inexplicable and costly craziness in Covid policy... making it far and away the new outlier... at something over 300%... assuming you can trust the numbers... which I think you should not do... either in China, Europe, of the U.S. ? All else being equal... that REQUIRES China to sustain its prior trends and succeed in future competition (cooperation) with others... and NOT lose out in that competition with others due to any improper management of its business opportunities... if it wishes to avoid... all of what happens when debt bubbles implode... which is not saying, if that were to occur... which seems improbable, to me... that it would prove sufficient... But, all of that is "risk" that is real enough... as "clearly not sustainable" on an ongoing basis in the routine of business as usual... ? The 2 year spiking to 6%... as now "expected" soon given Powell "whiff"... is undoubtedly going to impose significant pain... on those out over their skis in debt... meaning... pretty much everyone... and, I don't think that means "markets can just ignore it" as some today seem to be saying ? Odds of a shooting war in the Pacific breaking out "at any time" appear much higher this week, too... given continuing and escalating aggressive actions... And, that, obviously, might have impacts requiring re-evaluation ?