To all CREAF followers, VectorVest just changed their rating on CREAF to a buy, establishing a value of $40.90. Last time that I checked VectorVest I think that they had given CREAF a sell rating back in the $18-20 range during the elevator ride down. Also, I was quite surprised that the Nightly Business Report for 2/12 did not list CREAF as a most active or big mover NASDAQ stock, even though the stock was up about 23% today (a higher percentage than the other 3 featured big movers at 18, 20,& 22%).
Remember the days a short while back when CREAF had been regularly trading in the $25-26 range and we were just waiting for the chance to buy it on some kind of dip back in the $23-24 range? Perhaps, with the realization that Asia's woes may be lessening or on the mend, those analyzing or watching CREAF may have come to realize what all the CREAF longs on this thread have known for a long time; there is a lot of intrinsic value in CREAF and it was a screaming bargain while temporarily valued down in the $teens. Good luck to all those long on CREAF. Following is the most recent VectorVest stock Analysis of Creative Tech:
"Thank you for requesting an analysis of Creative Tech from
VectorVest ProGraphics. The ticker symbol for Creative Tech is
CREAF. CREAF is traded on the NASDAQ and options are
available on this stock.
PRICE: CREAF closed on 12-Feb-1998 at $22.60 per share.
VALUE: CREAF has a Value of $40.90 per share. Value is the
foundation of the VectorVest system. It is a measure of what a
stock is currently worth. Value is based upon earnings, earnings
growth rate, dividend payments, dividend growth rate, and financial
performance. Current interest and inflation rates also play an
important role in the computation of Value. When interest and/or
inflation rates decrease, Value goes up. When interest rates and
inflation increase, Value goes down. Sooner or later a stock's Price
and Value always converge.
RV (Relative Value): CREAF has an RV of 1.36. On a scale of
0.00 to 2.00, an RV of 1.36 is excellent. RV reflects the long-term
price appreciation potential of the stock compared to an alternative
investment in AAA Corporate Bonds. Stocks with RV ratings
above 1.00 have attractive upside potential. A stock will have an
RV greater than 1.00 when its Value is greater than Price, and its
Relative Safety (see below) and forecasted earnings growth rate are
above average. In some cases, however, a stock's RV will be
above 1.00 even though its Value is well below Price. This happens
when a stock has an exemplary record of financial performance and
an above average earnings growth rate. In this case, the stock is
currently selling at a premium, and the investor is banking on future
earnings growth to drive the stock's price higher. This information is
very useful not only in knowing whether or not a stock has favorable
price appreciation potential, but it also solves the riddle of whether
to buy high growth, high P/E, or low growth, low P/E stocks.
We believe that RV ratings above 1.00 are required to consistently
achieve above average capital gains in the stock market.
RS (Relative Safety): CREAF has an RS rating of 0.74. On a
scale of 0.00 to 2.00, an RS of 0.74 is poor. VectorVest looks at
safety from the viewpoint of an equity investor (one who is buying
stock of a company) rather than that of a purchaser of debt (one
who is lending money to the company). From this perspective,
consistency of financial and operating performance, stock price
appreciation history, and price volatility are the key factors used in
the evaluation of Relative Safety (RS). Debt to equity ratio,
capitalization, sales volume, business longevity and other factors are
also considered, but to a lesser degree.
VectorVest favors steady, predictable performers. All stocks are
rated on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. A stock with an RS greater than
1.00 is safer and more predictable than the average of all stocks. A
stock with an RS less than 1.00 is less predictable and riskier than
the average stock.
RT (Relative Timing): CREAF has an RT rating of 1.15. On a
scale of 0.00 to 2.00, an RT of 1.15 is good. RT is a fast,
responsive, short-term price trend indicator. It analyzes the
direction, magnitude, and dynamics of a stock's price behavior over
the last 13 weeks; then reflects and projects the short-term price
performance of the stock. Once a stock's Price has established a
strong trend, it is expected to continue that trend for the short-term.
If the trend dissipates, RT will gravitate towards 1.00. Should the
price change dramatically, RT will notice the crucial turning point.
When warranted, it will explode from a Price low and dive from a
Price high.
All stocks are rated on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. If RT is above 1.00,
the stock's Price is in an uptrend. Below 1.00, the stock's Price is in
a downtrend.
VST-Vector (VST): CREAF has a VST-Vector rating of 1.11.
On a scale of 0.00 to 2.00, an VST of 1.11 is good. VST-Vector
solves the dilemma of balancing Value, Safety and Timing. Stocks
with high RV values often have low RS values, or stocks with low
RV and RS values have high RT's. How can we find the stocks with
the best combinations of Value, Safety, and Timing?
The classic vector formula (square root of the sum of the squares)
handles this problem. It combines a set of forces into a single
indicator for ranking every stock in the VectorVest database.
Stocks with the highest VST-Vector have the best combinations of
Value, Safety and Timing. These are the ones to own for above
average capital application.
GRT (Growth Rate): CREAF has a GRT of 17 % per year.
This is very good. GRT stands for forecasted Earnings Growth Rate
in percent per year. GRT is updated each week for every stock.
Watch GRT trends very carefully. If the GRT trend is up, the
stock's Price will likely rise. If the GRT trend is down, the stock's
Price will increase more slowly, cease to increase, or subsequently
fall.
Recommendation (REC): CREAF has a Buy recommendation.
REC reflects the cumulative effect of all the VectorVest parameters
working together. These parameters are designed to help investors
buy safe, undervalued stocks which are rising in price, and to avoid
or sell risky, overvalued stocks which are falling in price.
VectorVest is tuned to give an "H" or "B" signal when a stock's
price is approximately 10% above a recent low, and an "S" signal
when the stock's price is approximately 10% below a recent high.
High RV, RS stocks are favored toward receiving "B" REC's, and
sheltered from receiving "S" RECs.
STOP-PRICE: CREAF has a Stop-Price of $21.00 per share.
This is $1.60 or 7.1% below its current closing Price. VectorVest
analyzes over 6,000 stocks each day for Value, Safety and Timing,
and calculates a Stop-Price for each stock. These Stop-Prices are
based upon 13 week moving averages of closing prices, and are
fine-tuned according to each stock's fundamentals.
In the VectorVest system, a stock gets a "B" or an "H"
recommendation if its price is above its Stop-Price, and an "S"
recommendation if its price is below its Stop-Price.
DIV (Dividend): CREAF does not pay a dividend. VectorVest
focuses on annual,regular, cash dividends indicated by the most
recent disbursement. Special distributions, one-time payments,
stock dividends, etc., generally are not included in Dividend (DIV).
DY (Dividend Yield): CREAF has a DY of 0.0 percent. This is
below the current market average of 1.3 percent. DY equals 100 x
(DIV/PRICE), and is expressed as a percentage.
EY (Earnings Yield): CREAF has an EY of 11.28%. This is
above the current market average of 5.05%. EY equals 100 x
(EARNINGS PER SHARE/PRICE), and is expressed as a
percentage.
EPS (Earnings Per Share): CREAF has an EPS of $2.55 per
share. EPS stands for leading 12 months Earnings Per Share.
VectorVest determines this forecast from a combination of recent
earnings performance and traditional fiscal and/or calendar year
earnings forecasts.
P/E (Price to Earnings Ratio): CREAF has a P/E ratio of
8.87. This ratio is computed daily based upon Price and EPS. P/E =
Price/EPS.
GPE (Growth to P/E Ratio): CREAF has a GPE of 1.92. This
ratio suggests that This ratio suggests that CREAF is undervalued.
Growth to P/E ratio is a popular measure of stock valuation which
compares Earnings Growth Rate (GRT) to Price Earnings ratio
(P/E). A stock is considered to be undervalued when GPE is
greater than 1.00, and vice-versa. VectorVest believes that RV is a
much better indicator of long-term value. The RV of 1.36 for
CREAF is excellent.
DS (Dividend Safety): CREAF has a DS of 0. On a scale of 0
to 99, a DS of 0 is poor. DS is defined as the assurance that regular
cash dividends will be declared and paid at current or at higher rates
for the foreseeable future. Stocks with DS values above 50 on a
scale of 0 to 99 are above average in safety.
RISK (Dividend Risk): CREAF does not pay a dividend. All
stocks in the VectorVest system that pay dividends are classified as
having Low, Medium or High Dividend Risk (RISK). Stocks with
DS values above 50 are above average in safety. These stocks are
classified as having LOW or MEDIUM RISK. Stocks with DS
values below 50 are below average in safety and are classified as
having HIGH Risk.
DG (Dividend Growth): CREAF has a DG of 0 percent per
year. Dividend Growth is a subtle yet important indicator of a
company's historical financial performance and the board's current
outlook on the future use of funds.
YSG-VECTOR (Yield-Safety-Growth Vector): CREAF
has a YSG-Vector of 0.00. On a scale of 0.00 to 2.00, an
YSG-Vector rating of 0.00 is very poor. VectorVest combines
Dividend YIELD, SAFETY and GROWTH into a single parameter.
YSG-Vector allows direct comparison of all dividend paying
stocks. Stocks with the highest YSG-Vector values have the best
combinations of Dividend Yield, Safety and Growth. These are the
stocks to buy for above average current income and long-term
growth.
VOL(100)s: CREAF traded 4286000 shares on 12-Feb-1998.
AVG VOL(100)s: CREAF has an Average Volume of 1538962.
Average Volume is 50 day moving average of daily volume as
computed by VectorVest.
% VOL: CREAF had a Volume change of 178.5% from its 50
day moving average volume.
OPEN: CREAF opened trading at $20.10 per share on
12-Feb-1998.
HIGH: CREAF traded at a high of $22.80 per share on
12-Feb-1998.
LOW: CREAF traded at a low of $19.90 per share on
12-Feb-1998.
CLOSE: CREAF Closed trading at $22.60 per share on
12-Feb-1998.
% PRC: CREAF showed a Price change of 22.8% from the prior
day's closing price.
INDUSTRY: CREAF has been assigned to the Computer
(Ancillary Eqp) Group. VectorVest classifies stocks into over 190
Industry Groups and 50 Business Sectors.
CREAF has well below average safety with well above average
upside potential. It reflects a stock which is likely to give well above
average, inconsistent returns over the long term.
The basic strategy of VectorVest is to buy low risk, high reward
stocks. We suggest that Prudent investors buy enough high Relative
Value, high Relative Safety stocks to keep the overall RV and RS
ratings of their portfolios above 1.00. As you do this, you'll find that
your risk will go down and your investment performance will
improve. Not a bad combination.
Thank you for your interest in VectorVest ProGraphics.
We hope you find your individual stock analysis informative and
enlightening. It is provided to allow you to view the data we provide
on over 6000 stocks every day along with explanations of each
parameter to help you evaluate your selection. As a VectorVest
subscriber you would receive a complete download of the same
data on more than 6000 stocks on a daily basis. This would be
merged with the historical database residing on your computer.
VectorVest Prographics gives you the the ability to sort, filter, and
screen on any parameter or build your own strategies and trends to
bring the best (or worst) to the top. You can also follow stocks in a
Watchlist, track your Portfolio, or read the weekly VectorVest
Views to name just a few features.
If you want to know more, then go to our features page
vectorvest.com. If you would like to try out
the program, then sign up for our trial subscription offer
vectorvest.com.
c Copyright 1997 by MarketSoft, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
2167 Werhle Drive, Williamsville, NY 14221
For additional information, call 1-888-658-7638, e-mail to
sales@vectorvest.com, or visit our internet site at
vectorvest.com
DISCLAIMER: VectorVest ProGraphics is licensed by MarketSoft Inc., and is protected by United
States copyright laws and international treaty provisions. The information contained herein is for your
exclusive, personal use only. You may print a single copy of any stock analysis for your exclusive
use, but it is not to be reproduced for distribution without the expressed written consent of MarketSoft
Inc. You should be aware of the risks involved in stock investing, and you use the material contained
herein at your own risk. This material is believed to be reliable, but MarketSoft Inc., nor any of its
suppliers guarantee its accuracy or validity, nor are they responsible for any errors or omissions which
may have occurred. The analysis, ratings, and/or recommendations made by VectorVest ProGraphics,
VectorVest On-Line, MarketSoft Inc., and/or any of its suppliers do not provide, imply, or otherwise
constitute a guarantee of performance."
VectorVest is registered as an investment advisor with the United States Securities and Exchange
Commission. VectorVest ProGraphics is comprised of reports embodying a unique system of stock
analysis. All contents and recommendations are based on data and sources believed to be reliable, but
accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Users should be aware of the risks involved in stock
investments. It should not be assumed that future results will be profitable or will equal past
performance, real, indicated or implied. VectorVest and/or its principals may purchase or sell any of
the securities cited herin. VectorVest and the logostyle, geometric design are, individually and
collectively, service marks licensed by MarketSoft, Inc. VectorVest ProGraphics is published daily by
Marketsoft, Inc. 2167 Wehrle Drive, Williamsville NY 14221 1-716-565-9630 |
