Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Z Analyzer who wrote (2476)	2/13/1998 5:03:00 AM
From: Frodo Baxter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

>(Any ideas?) Sure, I have plenty. But I suppose you want good ones. Here's where my bets are. At least the ones I can defend easily. 1) Short APM. How many years till bankruptcy and/or massive dilution? 2 max, I would say. Significant risks: They're nowhere near fair value now, so I guess it's good for a couple irrational breakouts. 2) Short SEG. If QNTM's late with their high-end, so's SEG. Only it's their bread-and-butter. Desktop drives are a complete disaster. I'm starting to believe the longer the delay, the more likely RDRT will be a bigger supplier... which means the other supplier (um, internal business) is having QNTM-scale difficulties executing. By the time they pull out of this tailspin, it'll be the slow summer season, and everybody'll have new generations out (remember, 4 month cycles for Maxtor in recent past). I e-mailed Dell, asking what's the deal with the 9.1G? They said 10 week lead time. Double ouch! Also still have significant unrealized hedging losses on the books, although currencies have improved recently. IMHO, the only thing keeping this stock above bust-cycle valuations is Dow >8000. Significant risks: Still valued as industry leader; could spin-out software biz. 3) Long BSC. Buying a low PE investment bank is like buying a mutual fund. But they are also a play on lower bond rates (due to their high borrowings) and fixed income underwriting (made attractive by lower interest rates). Also, i-banks get taken out at 2-5x book. Significant risks: increased market volatility; interest rates soar. Hard to put a valuation on HTCH, because they're a monopoly. Sure they make widgets, but they have the only dominant market share in this industry.

To: Z Analyzer who wrote (2476)	2/13/1998 5:35:00 AM
From: Stitch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

Z, Sound reasoning. As to suggestions: I do not look too far beyond the DD sector. Its what I feel I know best. But I have been flirting with investments in Asia some and follow the Hong Kong and Asia threads closely. I also now have a small position in VECO and ZIGO. They are not exclusively DD so maybe they represent a way for you to hang in a bit. I am very bearish on HTCH and all the component suppliers right now. They are bleeding with the exception of HMTT. In the media group there really is only one lonely non-vertically integrated account and thats Samsung. There is the removable guys, of course, (Iomega and Syquest) but that isnt big volumes. I just wouldn't want to own any of the 6 or so independent media suppliers right now. In heads its almost as grim IMHO. Best, Stitch