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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (197316)	3/16/2023 2:00:10 AM
From: sense	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217615

I think "financial crisis" was supposed to be the "final proof" of cryptos utility... as "above it all"... But, thus far, it has sustained greater volatility, not less... and while slaved to the same market drivers... "Independent" of the "fiat system"... is proving as phony as "not a Ponzi"... recent events only proving that another dead bank or two means no conversions into spendable coin will be possible... And the odds of there NOT being another one or two... look vanishingly small. The gold advantage in "doesn't evaporate"... is more closely met by paper fiat than crypto, as, whatever else is true... and even assuming the power stays on and the power bills get paid... as they start adding zeros to the bills faster... you can still stuff a mattress with them... or fold them up into colorful little origami flowers ? So, as I thought before... will have to sift through the carnage once it is over... from "still only the beginning" now... to see if there is anything of real utility that is salvageable... when the market bottoms. Block chain has clear utility... but, its greatest utility might be in things of value other than cash substitutes... (or NFT's generated by AI driven artist bots). I think that it will be hard to find a new use case... that is not a function of "please support our Ponzi scheme" mostly because... allowing the Ponzi scheme based financing... has poisoned the market to other cases ? Fiat is also a Ponzi scheme, of course... but, it does have something of a monopoly, it seems... even within the quite large diversity of the many currencies that do exist... and the CBDC fork... is just another fork being stuck into WEF's rapidly failing plans for world domination and control... I think there are compelling enough use cases... The problem being only... those things tend to ALSO challenge the existing authority in ways they dislike... So, the change being sought... has to occur before the change can be made to begin ? Circularity works better in physical coinage.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (197316)	3/16/2023 2:01:21 AM
From: sense	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217615

Otherwise... Every market move is a good move... if you're on the right side of the trade (and your counter-party survives.) Short list of ETFs for "right siding" recently... but... still good, tomorrow ? AGQ - 2x Silver Bull... pending "the usual" in the "take-down"... but maybe not this time ? (can they afford it ?) TMF - 3x 20 Yr T Bull... rates lower... maybe FAST... or not... or, lower for a good while... but not yet ? FAZ - 3x bear as banks are very, very very bad... its not over yet... maybe "just starting"... takes time to fix. ERY - 2x bear as energy is only very, very bad... recession looming... or, deflationary depression... ? KOLD - short-term... for now, but might be warming trend in spring... Gold / silver driven by inflation vs deflation narratives... but, trump is "financial crisis risks realized" ? Not much to see out there now that is likely to drive "increasing confidence" ? So, some say... they have to raise 25 basis points... just to avoid telegraphing panic... as 0 might do... Or, maybe they DO need to lower right away to avoid... what happens if they raise rates into a gaping maw as deadly vortex of deflapressionarianism ? Correlating timing... between "financial crisis growing out of control" and "stocks going down"... seems, oddly, to just really not have occurred to anyone yet... ? Just lots of indecision and milling about on up vs down, volatility, one moment to another, but not going anywhere... And, rates going down like a high speed elevator is a good thing, right ? S&P closing below 3807.5... which was December 28's counter peak low... should decide it... "Inflation" is TOO HOT signals last week... but, suddenly said to be deflation risks coming on fast ? So... patience required... but, not too much of it... or ??? Market currently undecided what Fed might do... which is perhaps an exactly accurate reading ? What is the right market call based on chart pattern of: Deer in Headlights ? But, it seems a trick question anyway... as, from here, there is no right answer... only choices of wrong ones.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (197316)	3/16/2023 4:29:26 AM
From: nicewatch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217615

You probably saw this before but if not here you go: archive.is Along with the outcome of the court case there is another potential hoop to jump through which is can the trust known as GBTC successfully extricate itself from parent company DCG's lending arm Genisis which is effectively bankrupt and negotiating with creditors on settlements. The huge GBTC discount to NAV was large and existed for a while and better correlated to the more recent bull/bear cycle. When GBTC traded at a premium to NAV during part of the last bull cycle it was a funding mechanism for some funds and qualified investors that invested directly with Grayscale for restricted shares, I think they were locked up for 6 months but could be wrong, and after those shares unlocked they could be sold into the market at the premium to NAV. Worked great for all while bitcoin was going up and GBTC collected its 2% fee. One sticky point for some is that has GBTC ever independently verified its BTC holdings and wallet addresses? The last I read they sort of demurred and made excuses. I'm not saying they don't have the BTC they claim to but there are ways to prove it and as far as I know they have not. Hopefully someone here is better informed than I am about this.