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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (197322)	3/16/2023 6:03:25 AM
From: sense	Respond to of 219716

Analysts said that the fire sale by major economies was a sign of their waning confidence in US debt, as the US faces economic woes such as its debt ceiling debacle. It is likely some of that is "an investment decision"... of the sort that might have proven useful to a number of those banks that were forced to load up on zero interest bond holdings by the flood of easy money pouring in as deposits... But, that seems unlikely to me... that there is any issue with "waning confidence" in isolation... given others debt burdens are two or three times larger... which is both the result of and utility in having a debt ceiling... that is the opposite of a "debacle"... when it keeps debt/GDP sustainable... as debacle preventive. Instead... self styled strategic competitors are seeking to compete by destabilizing the currency regime... hoping to win advantage from that... somehow.. (Granted, there's plenty enough of that going around... not like there's a monopoly on bad ideas.) And, I expect that will work... to destabilize the currency regime... and those things directly dependent on it... like trade. We will find out soon... what unintended consequences occur... when "the new supply chain disruption" turns out to be a function not of port facility backlogs, ships stacking up in ports, etc., but of disconnects in the money supply that prevents translation of flows in re-balancing the supply of "good money" in different markets... The primary impact you should expect of the looming "currency war"... is a greater slow down in trade than that we saw in 2020... as demand cratered. But, in 2023... what will happen instead... is that the demand exists... but is made unable to be met by the restrictions in the currency flows. The system of trade and currency exchange... is a dynamic... that doesn't allow you to randomly re-plumb the flows... ? So, layer that in as a backdrop to already extant "economic stresses"... and add "deliberate disruption of functions"... ? Recession becomes depression... and 18 months becomes 5 years... My guess is that in the degree "it works"... it will impose vastly greater economic stresses on those making it work... than they have had to deal with before...' If you think the dollar and the Fed are bad.... wait until you see what the lack of that bit of discipline imposes in its place... That the Fed we have now... is one of the worst we've ever had... doesn't make "the competition" any better ? So, mercantilism in trade... about to be joined to mercantilist money... as an "improvement" ? Good luck with that.