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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bull_dozer who wrote (197341)	3/16/2023 2:38:13 PM
From: sense	1 Recommendation Recommended By fred woodall Respond to of 217764

So, "Nothing to see here, move along"... MOAR QE under new guise... ramps from $9 trillion to $11 trillion... That... vs the $18 trillion in bank deposits... Means... QE is the "new normal" in how "liquidity injection" is done... and no one seems to have a clue what that actually means about "how things work" now ? So, we're going to accelerate the creation of dislocations... by raising rates... while simultaneously "undoing the impact of rising rates"... by slipping a bit of QE into the banks back pockets... when higher rates cause... what higher rates are supposed to cause ? What could possibly go wrong with that ? Now... as direct handouts to banks to "make them whole" because... the Fed made them hole... ? And "There. Fixed." ? Another failing bank is "in talks" to be sold (so we should celebrate that)... while the ECB raises rates by 0.5 %... and markets act like they've been invited to a party, today.... Suggests "smoking crack" to me... ? Yeah... not buying it... literally... It's highly suspicious that they're doing this as "trial balloons" floated... without there being any real certainty about what they are planning... how it will work... or what the details of "that" actually ARE... but, new wrinkles in "more of the same old"... probably don't really matter much any more... given "same shit, different day" reality. Stocks have remained artificially high... expecting "no choice" but to continue "same shit, different day"... ? But, as is clearly true in the banks... it has almost all of them focused on "everything but minding the knitting"... I don't see this as "fixing" anything... but, it continues the trend... of the forced consolidation of banking into fewer and fewer banks... Sort of a banking version of the old TV show... "The Highlander"... "there can be only one"... in the end. So, WEF agenda proceeds... seeking to force consolidation... as "everything will work better" in a world without choice... Lack of transparency seems it is the new guideline... sort of a "go away and let us do what we have to do without asking too many questions about it" approach ? I don't see anyone arguing that "they don't know how to apply bandages"... But, I don't see anyone arguing... "maybe they should stop inflicting life threatening wounds"... and GROW the economy... instead of inflating it ? Meanwhile... remarkably enough... the bandages applied appear to cause more bleeding... The "guardrails" talk... ? An overly simple plot... shows a range of interest rate flexibility from 0 to 20% in 1980... and, in 2023... that range is narrowed from around -1 to 4.5%... That 43 year span and range... continued... suggests... 12.5 years until the upper bound in the range <= 0 ? But, the "zero line" function at the middle bound in the range is probably... the point... there sooner. I think that's reasonable to accept as a "time to die" meter... only with markets growing increasingly restive as the Fed (et al) continue trying to force people and businesses heads underwater and hold them there ? Give it... 12 - 18 months to a market bottom from here... and another 7 year "inflate and distort" cycle... Or, will they cancel the market decline... as "not helpful" to have anyone be allowed to lose money ? As SIVB shows... banks (but not just banks) have been divorced from the idea that they have to be profitable... instead... they pose as administrators of the "more equitable" distribution of the losses... Not giving SIVB any passes on going stupid and "woke" and not minding the knitting... but... The problem is not the small banks... who are dealing with the impossible in the bullshit being thrown at them... The problem is the big banks... being given exemptions from reality... and competition. "Too big to fail" is not correctly defined as "systemically important"... it is instead "a systemic poison"... Global socialism is now slated to run out of other people's money to spend... in ~ 10 years... on current trend. My guess is... accelerations are likely to occur... now that the nature of the composite in errors enabled is coming into clearer focus... 2023 + 10 = hey, how about that... But, QE from $0 to $11 trillion... between 2008 and 2023 ? That means on current pace... QE will equal bank deposits in... 9.45 years... = 2032... ~ October... Where will money in banks go... when people figure out that money in banks really can and will evaporate ? Because... that's the plan ? And, more importantly... when will they figure that out ?

To: bull_dozer who wrote (197341)	3/16/2023 6:35:20 PM
From: TobagoJack	1 Recommendation Recommended By Arran Yuan Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217764

more 'stuff' requires bailing out or backstopping or something at this rate, given that we are talking bonds as opposed to equity, we are being accelerated into a phase when pensions require looking into below attached is probably nothing, from a fund manager friend, and I do not know whether he is long or short or even positioned in the beast. maybe just a single medium sized cockroach gold is nice, for gold does not default for all its fault(s) did get a dollop (low conviction, at 0.5% of wife's windfall) of TLT and who knows, perhaps it will double by the world returning to zirp / nirp like henry reckons Message 34224864

To: bull_dozer who wrote (197341)	3/16/2023 9:07:19 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217764

today, arguably, I heard that the 5+% yield on T-bill is akin to the 18% way back when, once adjusted for leverage in the system as far as effects go if so, un-good, even for gold initially should rates rise further, and not-good, except for gold and near-gold otherwise