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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mason Barge who wrote (4832)	2/13/1998 11:51:00 AM
From: shane forbes	Respond to of 10921

Mason: Jublak's take on semi-equips from Microsoft's Investor.msn site: Is the worst over in Asia? Applied Materials (AMAT) votes no. In its Feb. 11 report of first-quarter earnings (for the three months ending Jan. 25), Applied blew past Wall Street estimates by 10 cents a share (a 20% earnings surprise). But the maker of semiconductor-manufacturing equipment noted that new orders were below expectations. That's essentially what CEO James Morgan predicted a month ago when he said that first-quarter earnings would be great, but the rest of the year looked tough. Citing the example of a Korean chip maker that had delayed a major DRAM plant, Morgan put a negative spin on some great numbers: New orders, he said, jumped 43% from the first quarter of 1997, but fell 6% from the level in the fourth quarter of 1997. I don't want to extrapolate either too much or too little from this news. At the least, Applied Materials' report suggests that PRI Automation (PRIA), a company that sells to many of the same customers as Applied, also faces a tough quarter or two. More broadly, technology investors shouldn't go to sleep over Asia. The next quarter's numbers will take a bite out of more than a few stocks -- creating new buying opportunities. I'd keep some powder dry. I know that's not easy advice when the market as a whole is hitting new highs, but I think we still have some bargains ahead in March and April. --- Prescient or just lucky on PRIA - downgraded today. --- - off topic - (BTW This is getting uncanny. I had a similar diatribe on cable modems vs. xDSL and cable companies vs. RBOCs a few months ago on the LSI Logic thread. Bizzarro...) (I should not have implied that the modem companies had to generate demand. I did not say that well. The profusion of graphics on the Web, video, sound, etc etc pretty much assures demand for faster access. What I meant to and should have said is that they have to convince folks that now the standards debate is over it's safe to come out of the house and buy a modem. This is presumably a non-issue. "Presumably" also the ISP's will continue to add 56K capacity. And re: analog modems and their demise - absolutely! Still we have several years of analog life left. Intel's Grove says it is still "very early" in the digital revolution and that we are still 5 to 10 years away from mass acceptance. (Such as Digital TV!) An informal poll on techweb shows that not till the years 2000-2002 will almost half the people polled get a DVD player and toss their VCR (12% this year, 27% next, 47% 3-5 years out, remaining never.) This is one of those internet vote thingies so it means nothing.)