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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: The Ox who wrote (77893)3/28/2023 12:56:08 PM
From: Sun Tzu3 Recommendations

Recommended By
catou1
skier31
The Ox

  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 98058
 
For the past 10+ years, the median price of UNL has been ~10, which is still well below the current price. When it gets into its wild swings, NG can drop 85%+ from its high in relatively short term and 95%+ in the long run. Both of these values are still well below here.

This is what makes risk management so important. Yes, a company can go bankrupt, but nobody expects a 95% drop in an essential commodity. And as bad as 95% drop is, oil did worse and went negative.

I should find a way to place a watermark on my charts background: "Highly improbable events happen frequently if your timeframe is long enough." ;)

Case in point, SIVB opened for trading today :-O
Check the high to low range of what was a bluechip bank.





To: The Ox who wrote (77893)3/28/2023 1:24:31 PM
From: Sokka2 Recommendations

Recommended By
Lee Lichterman III
The Ox

  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 98058
 
I think one difference is UNG/BOIL closes at 4 EST, and futures at 6 EST for NG. Often NG moves a little in those two hours and throws off a direct comparison the next day.

I've been trading UNG intraday and doing pretty good. Not holding anything for now. I wouldn't be surprised if UNG hits between $5-$6 sometime soon. However, my opinion changes day to day based on whatever the latest is.