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Strategies & Market Trends : Option Strategies -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (2488)	4/15/2023 8:18:14 AM
From: FIFO_kid2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2591

Bob- I think we are generally on the same wavelength on everything you have said especially government/Fed politics taking center stage and driving the markets since the 2008 credit crisis and the commodity sectors as it takes materials to expand the green economy. I also am carrying a very high cash balance (47%) for the reasoning of finding it very difficult to find something dirt cheap and safe to get aggressive on the buy side because there hasn't been a major capitulation like what typically has happened in the past and finding special situations has also been few and far between since 2021. Admittedly, I do reserve between 5-15% of my invested portfolio to long term trends and sometimes you can be really right on the call. With regards to the artificial intelligence sector I think almost all of those tiny cap names long term are likely going to eventually end up as zeros or dilution sinks like most of the internet sector names during the Y2K crash. I think all of the momentum will disappear after the next Fed meeting if they raise rates because I think a pivot is now built in the recent froth. The only thing I can say about AI now is I would really like to develop a trading bot so I would have much more free time. Ironically, I also own some AMNF but I wish the firm would upgrade its exchange to the Nasdaq but perhaps their reasoning why they don't do it is exposure to institutions and pressure to grow the business faster and maybe they don't want to take on that risk. Again an option strategy under bearish conditions when very short term thinking is desired it is earnings season now so the implied volatility for those names are now up. My past strategy was to select companies with weekly options during the week of their earnings release, sell the put with a .02-.05 delta where you would get approximately somewhere between a .1-.3% premium and if they numbers were good you typically within the day can cover the option at .01 (for the penny options) and go to the next day's releases. If the numbers are really bad you usually have enough margin of safety built in where the put will still expire worthless. If you think the numbers are going to be really bad it is then best to consider passing on it or selling the put on the day of the release.