Re <<What are you basing this 50% decline in QQQ on? Valuation? Technicals or both/more?>>
... something between a wild but intuitive guess, and a monetary philosophy stab
(1) maybe perhaps possibly that the correct worth of QQQ is 29, but had been puffed up since 2008 by QE-unlimited finance.yahoo.com
Continuing the fractal image, year 2000 / 2002, and now, a 75% fall in the cards, and / but I was being polite with the -50% 
(2) the components of QQQ are the usual 'leaders', only a few in the manufacturing domain as opposed to yet another advertising, cloud computing, shopping, or streaming platform, those which are driven by supposed GDP, and also about to revert to the terrible mean, with AAPL and TSLA front and centre, whereas AMZN would be de-globalised, and Meta / MSFT / AVGO weaponised even as shown the exit by others around the planet on national security premise finance.yahoo.com
finance.yahoo.com
finance.yahoo.com
finance.yahoo.com
(3) even if 29 ridiculously low, the pandemic-triggered 190, already super pumped by years of QE-unlimited might be a natural 'bottom' but under normal circumstances, as opposed to at onset of de facto WWIII by other means that splits the galaxy, when fixed cost remain firm, and revenues get chopped, slashed, or otherwise vaporised for the very few but highly cherished manufacturers in the QQQ
(4) rhetorical question, is a Cold War 2.0 enabling rare earth embargo better of worse, as a trigger for QQQ to the right-er valuation, whether in purchasing value or nominal, than a pandemic. On triggering, rare earth more consequential than a pandemic that did little except to overwhelm the hospital networks, arguably
never mind a sea embargo of the province of Taiwan
So, from 318 to 50% of 318, or 159, easy, and if just so, fortunate, to very fortunate.
(5) the NToeAwsBe (Natural Trade, Obvious Exchange, Apparent Wager, Sure Bet) might be short QQQ and long gold, but need enough wherewithal to withstand the interim pain
(6) am agnostic but am guessing that also relevant to the intuitive something and philosophical some other thing, the outcome of the Ukraine situation also complicates the reckoning Message 34259695
(7) however, a big however, am playing it quite defensively, and not-yet-all-in, and am staying agnostic, especially regarding who is right which is wrong, which side shall win, any and everywhere, over all matters
Survival first, the always-true imperative.
For all I know, gold might just and only be a mere consolation prize. |
