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Strategies & Market Trends : The Financial Collapse of 2001 Unwinding -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (11096)	4/28/2023 4:58:34 AM
From: elmatador	2 Recommendations Recommended By carranza2 pak73 Respond to of 13775

Decoupling on economic grounds is called rollover strategy. So China saw the Americans refusal to use Mexican cheaper manpower and told them: Do not go to the US to work for the Gringos ! We give you trabajo in Mexico. Mucho dinero. No transfer money back charges and no harassment por la migra. Let's look at rollover strategy. No one talks about Japan decoupling. Enters old man to explain. Japan post WWII produced canned fruits. Moved up market to make sporting goods like tennis rackets and skis. Rolled over canned fruits to Taiwan. Japan moved up maket once again into electronics and carmaking. Rolled oved sporting goods to Taiwan. Taiwan rolledover canned fruits to the Philippines. See? No decoupling. Just rolling over on economic grounds South Koreans woke up and reasoned: Hang on? Let's do what the Japanese are doing. And founded Samsung and Lucky Goldstar (today LG). (and the Americans went: Who the Hell decided to license the transistor to Japan for $100,000!) But the S. Koreans didn't know carmaking nor electronics to get the fabled Japanese quality. They had a plan: They've got a Boeing 747. Flew Japanese factory specialists for a gig weekend on S. Korea to teach the locals. Flew them back Sunday night. Note at that time, the Japanese were hard working and needed extra money. China started rolling over to South East Asia and to Mexico I asked my friend Alex Sen, he told me no Nike shoes sold in China are not made in China. My Braun electric shaver is Vietnam made. China's Mexico rollover is big. Take the US and NAFTA headon. CBRE data show demand for industrial space in Mexico has doubled from 2020-21 and was forecast to double again from 2021-22, with approximately one out of every four square feet going towards nearshoring, about 70% concentrated around Northern Mexico. Los chinos pensam grande. I am going to go on the speaker's circuit talking about geopolitics strategy.

To: carranza2 who wrote (11096)	7/18/2023 1:34:36 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 13775

China’s Evolving Presence in Latin America China stopped buying US Treasuries and is investing in Brazil! By one estimate, Brazil alone absorbed $5.9 billion of FDI from China in 2021, making it the top recipient country of Chinese investment in the world. Chinese Investment holding steady in LATAM and the Caribbean (LAC) FDI flows from China to LAC have held steady at levels above $4.5 billion annually on average since 2016, based on our conservative estimates. This is remarkable, considering Chinese investment contracted globally during the same period, particularly in the U.S. and the EU, where it plummeted from over $50 billion per year, combined, to under $15 billion. The relative resilience of LAC enabled the region to gain importance as a destination for Chinese investment. Prior to 2016, LAC represented less than 3% of China’s annual FDI outflows. Now, its share has likely grown to between 5% and 10%. To put things in perspective, last year China invested $8.4 billion in the EU, $4.7 billion in the U.S. and $7-10 billion in LAC. The fact that LAC would attract a comparable amount of Chinese investment as did the EU and the U.S.—much larger economies—was unimaginable a decade ago. By one estimate, Brazil alone absorbed $5.9 billion of FDI from China in 2021, making it the top recipient country of Chinese investment in the world. China stopped buying US Treasuries and is investing in Brazil! After Brazil, other LAC nations, such as Chile, Peru and Argentina, have also received sizable Chinese investments on a regular basis in recent years, with individual mergers and acquisitions transactions representing upwards of $3 billion—such as the Luz del Sur acquisition in Peru and the CGE purchase in Chile.

To: carranza2 who wrote (11096)	7/22/2023 7:05:58 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13775

Staley Black & Decker closed a factory in Shenzhen, China after 25 years. In 2020, it opened knew factory in Mexico Stanley Black & Decker, a manufacturer of tools, industrial equipment and other products, announced a new US $40-million manufacturing plant in Apodaca, Nuevo León, Tuesday. The 47,000-square-meter plant will be located in the CPA Technology Park in Apodaca, part of the Monterrey metropolitan area, and will generate at least 2,500 new jobs by the end of next year. Stanley Black & Decker ia also closing Fort Worth plant, cutting 175 jobs The closure of a new, highly automated machine tool plant that opened only 3.5 years ago in Forth Worth, Texas shouldn’t be surprising given these complexities. Successful manufacturing is an ecosystem challenge.

To: carranza2 who wrote (11096)	8/8/2023 4:33:59 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 13775

Arriba Mexico! Mexico seeks to solidify rank as top U.S. trade partner, push further past China Luis Torres July 11, 2023 Mexico became the top U.S. trading partner at the beginning of 2023, with total bilateral trade between the two countries totaling $263 billion during the first four months of this year. Mexico's emergence followed fractious U.S. relations with China, which had moved past Canada to claim the top trading spot in 2014. The dynamic changed in 2018 when the U.S. imposed tariffs on China’s goods and with subsequent pandemic-era supply-chain disruptions that altered international trade and investment flows worldwide. Mexico’s gains mirror its rise in manufacturing, a key component of goods moving between it and the U.S. During the first four months of 2023, total trade of manufactured goods between Mexico and the U.S. reached $234.2 billion. Overall, Mexican imports to the U.S. totaled $157 billion; U.S. exports to Mexico reached $107 billion. Mexico–U.S. trade during the first four months of 2023 represented 15.4 percent of all the goods exported and imported by the U.S.; the Canada–U.S. share followed at 15.2 percent and then the China–U.S. share at 12.0 percent (Chart 1). Downloadable chart \| Chart data China gains follow World Trade Organization membershipChina’s share of U.S trade had steadily increased since it joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001. WTO member nations enjoy preferential tariffs when trading with one another and are protected from nontariff barriers such as quotas and currency restrictions—an incentive for foreign direct investment. They also participate in the development of new international trade rules. Once in the WTO, China’s access to the world’s premier consumer markets, combined with its own economic prowess and ability to marshal resources for growth, quickly transformed the country into a leading manufacturing hub. Within a decade of its admission, critics increasingly accused China of flooding the world with cheap exports while limiting foreign access to its market. China’s trade growth coincided with sharp declines in U.S. manufacturing employment. Sectors and regions especially exposed to China’s trade tended to experience higher unemployment, lower labor force participation and reduced wage growth. U.S. imposes tariffs of China’s exportsU.S.–China trade began trending lower in 2018 after the Trump administration imposed new tariffs on imports from China, whose government responded with a similar action on imports from the U.S. China subsequently lost its position as top trading partner later that year. Approximately $335 billion in trade (66.4 percent of China’s exports to the U.S.) remains subject to the tariffs. The average U.S. tariff on Chinese imports is 19.3 percent, while China’s average tariff on U.S. imports is 21.2 percent, according to the WTO. This exceeded tariffs among WTO members (enjoying most-favored-nation status) of 9 percent. There was a short-lived rebound in China’s trade share during the pandemic that subsequently gave way following supply-chain disruptions, many involving shipping and manufacturing originating in China. Mexico and Canada, which are highly interconnected to the U.S. economy, vied for the top spot. The three economies were formally tied together with the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and again in 2020 with the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement that replaced NAFTA. Mexico positioned as a manufacturing baseMexico’s expanding manufacturing base has offered an alternative to producing in China. Sourcing or producing goods in a nearby country is sometimes referred to as “ nearshoring.” While data on recent nearshoring is thin and evidence of it is largely anecdotal, increased protectionism and related industrial policy are consistent with less global trade, more regional trade, and nearshoring and reshoring (returning production to the home country). More activity in Mexico would support increased bilateral manufacturing with the U.S. It would also bolster Mexico’s standing as the U.S.’ leading manufacturing trading partner, a ranking it achieved in 2022 (Chart 2). Downloadable chart \| Chart data Bilateral manufacturing trade between Mexico and the U.S. represented 16.5 percent of all U.S. manufacturing trade; the Canada–U.S. share followed at 13.5 percent and then the China–U.S. share at 12.5 percent. Automotive industry plays key roleThe automotive industry is an especially active example of the cross-border manufacturing relationship. A U.S. plant typically produces an intermediate good that is then exported to Mexico where it becomes part of the assembly process before a final good is then imported back into the U.S. The supply trade linkages are supported by the presence in Mexico of foreign-owned, labor-intensive assembly plants for export—the so-called “ maquiladoras” Over the past 20 years, transportation has accounted for about 24.5 percent of total bilateral manufacturing trade, followed by computer and electronic equipment, 22.4 percent; electrical equipment, appliances and components, 8.5 percent; and machinery (excluding electrical), 7.7 percent. While Mexico benefits from increased trade with the U.S., the impact on U.S. producers and consumers has been mixed. To the extent that frictions with China account for Mexico’s ascension in the trade rankings, the higher profile comes at a cost to U.S. firms and consumers through higher input and purchase prices. While the principal focus of trade policy was once free trade, greater efficiency and lower prices, that may no longer be the case. Today’s global economic relationships encompass a myriad of concerns, among them national security, climate policy and supply-chain resiliency.

To: carranza2 who wrote (11096)	8/8/2023 4:35:24 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 13775

Mexico’s Exports to U.S. up 54% from 2016 August 2, 2023 Mexico has moved to the forefront of global sourcing conversations since the Trump administration began implementing tariffs on China and Covid-19 disrupted global trade. There has been considerable press coverage and announcements by companies such as HP outlining their plans to use Mexico as an incremental or alternate source to China. How far has Mexico come as a U.S. trading partner? Supply chain solutions provider Descartes recently analyzed the top 10 two-digit (HS-2 digits) commodity categories across industries such as furniture, electronic machinery, vehicles and apparel and the top 10 countries of origin (CoOs) between 2016–2022 to understand how Chinese imports into Mexico are supporting Mexico’s growth. Mexico exports to the U.S. grew 54 percent over the last seven years; however, Chinese exports to Mexico increased by 134 percent in the same period while the Mexican economy only grew 3.4 percent. “Chinese goods are following this shift in trade flows that is increasingly coming from Mexico into the U.S.,” said Chris Jones, executive vice president, industry, at Descartes, in a statement. Source: Descartes Datamyne Mexico ranks as one of the top three CoOs in six goods categories (including electronics, furniture, machinery and automotive), gaining significant market share. Most of Mexico’s U.S. export growth occurred in 2021 and 2022 – which can also be attributed to pandemic-related demand and inflation, especially in 2022. For HS-85 goods (electric machinery, sound equipment, TVs, etc.), Mexico was the third largest provider (18 percent) in 2022 in terms of value to the United States. Over a seven-year horizon (2016–2022), the total value of these goods from Mexico increased 28 percent and the greatest percentage growth was in 2021 and 2022 (combined 30 percent), Descartes found. The value of U.S. maritime imports, however, increased 35 percent in the same seven-year period. This would imply that Mexico lost import market share over the last seven years. Chinese exports for HS-85 grew 171 percent in the same period. Source: Descartes Datamyne In 2022, Mexico was the largest provider (38 percent) of HS-87 (vehicles, except railway or tramway, and parts) goods in terms of value to the United States, Descartes reported. Over a seven-year horizon (2016–2022), the total value of these goods from Mexico increased 49 percent and the greatest percentage growth was in 2022 (23 percent YoY). The value of U.S. maritime imports increased 30 percent in the same seven-year period. This would imply that Mexico gained import market share over the last seven years. Descartes pointed to one important note: $74 billion of the $111 billion in U.S. vehicle imports from Mexico is from goods (i.e., parts, subassemblies, etc.) that were shipped from the U.S. to Mexico and used in the final assembly of automobiles in Mexico, which were then shipped back to the United States. The Descartes analysis shows that Mexico’s position as one of the top countries of origin for U.S. imports continues to grow and that it accelerated in the last two years as a result of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods and the Covid pandemic. In a number of major commodity groups, Mexico is either the top source for the U.S. or a strong alternative. Additionally, Mexico imports of goods from China are accelerating at an even faster rate and taking a strong position in supporting Mexico’s export growth to the United States.

To: carranza2 who wrote (11096)	9/28/2023 8:33:16 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 13775

U.S. Latino economic output grows to $3.2 trillion, according to new study If Latinos were an independent country, their GDP would rank fifth in the world, ahead of the United Kingdom, India and France, the study found. Over the last decade, the U.S. Latino economy has grown two and a half times faster than the non-Latino equivalent The California Latino economy alone would rank as the 21st largest economy in the world, between Poland and Switzerland, according to LDC’s analysis. Latinos’ purchasing power in the U.S. was strong and reached $3.4 trillion in 2021. Collective purchasing power of U.S. Latinos grew between 2.1 and 2.4 times faster than non-Latino counterparts, according to the report. PUBLISHED WED, SEP 27 20237:46 AM EDTUPDATED WED, SEP 27 202312:16 PM EDT Brandon Gomez l KEY POINTS The U.S. Latino economy continues to grow, reaching $3.2 trillion in 2021, up from $2.8 trillion the year prior, according to a new report by the Latino Donor Collaborative in partnership with Wells Fargo. If Latinos were an independent country, their GDP would rank fifth in the world, ahead of the United Kingdom, India and France, the study found. Industry strength for Latinos remains steady in accommodation and food services, construction, administrative support, waste management and transportation. Latinos are the engine of growth in the U.S., says Sol Trujillo The U.S. Latino economy continues to grow, reaching $3.2 trillion in 2021, up from $2.8 trillion the year prior, according to a new report by the Latino Donor Collaborative in partnership with Wells Fargo. Over the last decade, the U.S. Latino economy has grown two and a half times faster than the non-Latino equivalent, surpassing the gross domestic product of the United Kingdom, India, France and Italy, according to the report released Wednesday by LDC, a nonprofit, nonpartisan group focused on reshaping perceptions of U.S. Latinos through data and economic research. If Latinos were an independent country, their GDP would rank fifth in the world, the study found. “We have a massive economy that’s under-invested right now, under-engaged,” said Sol Trujillo, Latino Donor Collaborative chairman, in an interview with CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” Industry strength for Latinos remains steady in accommodation and food services, construction, administrative support, waste management and transportation. While growth for the Latino community remains widespread in the U.S. geographically, the community drove particular growth in the states of California, Texas and Florida, amounting to $682 billion, $465 billion and $240 billion of economic impact, respectively. That is largely due to the Latino community’s strong population share, labor force participation and overall productivity in those states. “I would say if you look at the charts now that we have in our study, 48 out of the 50 states’ growth is tied to this [Latino] cohort,” Trujillo said. Spectators cheer during Puerto Rican Day Parade in New York. Thousands of people lined both sides of Fifth Avenue for the annual parade, which recognizes the achievements and influence of Puerto Ricans and Latinos in the city. Eric Thayer \| Reuters The California Latino economy alone would rank as the 21st largest economy in the world, between Poland and Switzerland, according to LDC’s analysis. In Latino emerging markets, South Dakota, North Dakota and New Hampshire have seen a surprising surge, with the highest GDP growth rates since 2011. In South Dakota, the economic impact of Latinos grew at an annual rate of 11.8% in 2021, according to LDC, slightly outpacing its neighbor. “Businesses operating in these areas must stay ahead of these substantial changes to ensure they remain relevant,” LDC noted in the report. “And be able to meet the needs of their evolving customer base.” The report also found that Latinos’ wages and salary incomes — totaling $1.67 trillion in 2021 — grew more than those of non-Latinos over the previous decade at an annualized rate of 4.7% compared to 1.9% for non-Latinos. But despite the rapid growth, a substantial wage gap persists in the country, with the average Latino worker earning 80 cents for every $1 earned by white non-Hispanic employees. Latinos’ purchasing power in the U.S. was strong and reached $3.4 trillion in 2021. Collective purchasing power of U.S. Latinos grew between 2.1 and 2.4 times faster than non-Latino counterparts, according to the report. “In the rest of this century, this cohort is only going to get bigger and bigger,” said Trujillo. “So those who want to get in early, think about it. Think about capital and fund structures that could flow.” The findings were released alongside the L’Attitude conference examining the state of Latino leadership, participation and representation in corporate America, as well as in the public, media and entertainment sectors. The report is based on data from 2021, the most recent year for which information is publicly available. It includes data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, among others.

To: carranza2 who wrote (11096)	11/14/2023 4:15:09 AM
From: elmatador	1 Recommendation Recommended By Lance Bredvold Respond to of 13775

SURGE IN ASIA INVESTMENT IN MEXICO When it comes to foreign direct investment in Mexico, more than half is now coming from outside the US. Asian companies, in particular, are setting up joint ventures, making acquisitions and building new facilities from scratch. Key areas include automotive, aerospace, general manufacturing and food processing, he pointed out. “In Mexico, builders of industrial infrastructure – industrial parks, warehouses and manufacturing plants cannot keep up with demand. Nearshoring and ‘friend-shoring’ will not only positively impact Mexico but also other Latin American countries where we are seeing foreign investment and trade increase as well,” said Manzano. In Latin America, Mexico stands to benefit the most from reshoring because of its proximity to the US, Martin Redrado, chairman of Fundacion Capital and former president of Argentina’s central bank, told delegates at the APLA Annual Meeting. “The most activity is in industrial and corporate real estate where US and other companies are looking for premises to buy and establish themselves,” said Redrado.