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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sense who wrote (198555)	5/2/2023 8:55:07 PM
From: TobagoJack	3 Recommendations Recommended By marcher Pogeu Mahone SirWalterRalegh Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217657

Re <<wait for it>> … is what am doing. 4% on bank deposit is enough risk / reward on balance at current juncture for wife’s portfolio, the one where if i am right, i get nothing, and if wrong, make up the difference. I got a new decision tool to complement my all-or-nothing motto, from Tiffany’s, but by secondhand

To: sense who wrote (198555)

5/2/2023 8:59:25 PM

From: TobagoJack

Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 217657

FWIW

The weak stuff getting weaker

Russell looks to be falling below the lower part of the huge range. Note we have not closed this low since October last year.

Refinitiv

KREdded

It is hard to find superlatives for the latest move in KRE. This is a pure panic move. Second chart shows KRE vs SPX: We don't think this gap will close, but it sure looks scary...

Refinitiv

History of debt ceiling "volatility"

JPM's market intelligence team reminds us:

The downgrade on August 4 led to a volatile market with several declines in the SPX and a peak VIX of 48 (was around 20 into the event)....SPX had a 6.7% decline on Aug 8, 4.4% decline on Aug 10, a 4.5% decline on Aug 18.

Refinitiv

Implied correlations exploding

You know there is panic when the 1 and 3 month implied correlations trade like this....

Refinitiv

The overall systematic downside convexity is huge

Gentle reminder: If it goes down a little it could go down a lot. Systematics can sell over a quarter of a trillion dollars if it goes down "a lot"...Chart below shows potential flow in SPX.

Negative gamma (not bull-GAMMA)

Narrative changed from super-bullish mega-cap unstoppable GAMMA to somewhat erratic negative gamma dealer positions. Dealers are back in short gamma land where they initially needed to sell a lot of deltas. The destabilizer is back...

Tier1Alpha

Fat and flat: but a long way down...

SPX continues trading the great range. We have just seen the SPX put in two of the biggest up candles in a long time, followed by today's biggest down candle in a while. It is a long way down to test the range...