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Technology Stocks : The New QLogic (ANCR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dean Wilson who wrote (14316)	2/13/1998 4:08:00 PM
From: Alan Aronoff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29386

Dean, One big difference is momentum. Last Q, the momentum was decidedly on the downside. ANCR broke below its 50 and 200 DMA in the weeks leading up to the earnings report. This Q, the momentum is decidedly on the upside. ANCR has climbed above the 50 and 200 DMA in the weeks leading up to the earnings report. I am assuming there are some positive developments that we will be hearing about shortly. I have no idea at this time whether the market has already overpriced this "news" into ANCR leading to a post-announcement selloff. Wish I had a cat! <g>

To: Dean Wilson who wrote (14316)	2/13/1998 4:08:00 PM
From: Craig Stevenson	Respond to of 29386

Dean, <<Are we going to tank this time come Tuesday?>> The latest word is that earnings will be Thursday, the 19th, instead of Tuesday. As far as the price action is concerned, I honestly don't know. What we do know is that the Q4 numbers are likely to be awful. The wildcards are any news releases, or any information that is revealed during the conference call. Craig

To: Dean Wilson who wrote (14316)	2/13/1998 4:14:00 PM
From: Jay Quinty	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29386

Dean, There's a major psychological difference between this earnings announcement and last. Everyone had big, big, big expectations going into the last announcement. Coming into this one we already know that Q4 stunk up the joint, so expectations are low. Secondly, the price action in the stock is just the opposite this time as it was last quarter. Coming into the earnings announcement last quarter the stock was already on it's way down. Smart money already had the heads up, and was out the door long before the earnings were released. Dumb money, like me, held all the way down and bit the bullet!! (May have even picked up a few more shares at fire sale prices) Based on the recent price action, I submit that the exact opposite is happening, that is, smart money has been buying over the last 6 weeks. That said, I don't have a crystal ball and who knows what the stock will do next Tuesday, or next month for that matter. A lot depends on what is said in the cc. Based on past performance, I won't be surprised to see the stock dip down next Tuesday as a result of some just not able to handle the bad quarter. This is still a story stock and it's going to trade on its future prospects, not earnings. All in my opinion, and I was wrong once.....FWIW <g> Jay