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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sepku who wrote (12463)	2/13/1998 6:12:00 PM
From: rag2rag	Respond to of 77400

regards, ASND 34 7/8 CSCO 64 7/8 you are expecting ASND to reach 50 which is + 42 % you are hoping CSCO will reach 100 which is + 56 % which one will happen sooner ? Why not sell ASND, buy CSCO now rather than waiting for a take over. I am long on ASND and have a small position in CSCO . IMHO, both will do just fine on their own, provided the Global situation does not deteriotate. Ideally, ASND will get into a friendly merger after they have realized their higher potential. ASND at 80 ?? ( I am dreaming) regards, jag-dish

To: sepku who wrote (12463)	2/17/1998 12:50:00 PM
From: The Phoenix	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 77400

Sytle, Well I must say that I agree with everything you said... I know, it even surprises me! Nonetheless IMO you've taken a very sane approach to trading ASND these days.. Also I noticed your comment about ASND meeting stiffer competition in traditional markets due to CSCO's foray into these spaces. Not to belabor the point but I believe this was our one area of contention a few months back. Nuf said. I agree that ASND will likely do better in the next few quarters; reduced earnings targets will be a big help. As for their new products - they are gaining interest in the market, however ASND remains weak on the marketing/sales side of the house. I say this because I don't believe ASND has ever been lacking for technology yet they still have had difficulties in making $$ targets. I should say that I don't have any inside knowledge. But Cisco, with what some say are not market leader products, has picked up market share in many of ASND's traditional target markets. If in fact Cisco's products aren't as good as ASND's then I can only attribute Cisco's success to better relationships through marketing and sales. So, even though ASND has a bunch of new products the results remain to be seen, however I do agree that ASND will beat the lowered targets analysts have set. As for Cisco at 100+ by years end. Remember John Chambers said Cisco is a $20B company by 2000. If this is the case Cisco will need to hit $9B by years end - minimum. They've got $4B in the books and I believe .92 cents (Q2 is diluted whereas Q1 isn't). That means they need another $5B and about another $1 in earnings which will give them a PE right around 50 - a PE they've been holding onto due to future expectations. Again I'll mention that future growth an earnings have already been articulated by John - a $20B company by 2000. That means what..... about $14B in 99 and $20 in 00? Now, I have the same problem with these numbers that you would have...that is...revenue growth... it has not been there up to now. However, if Cisco makes $9B in 98 - that IS 50% revenue growth. To get to $20B in 2000 Cisco needs to maintain this growth rate which as you and I both know get's more difficult as the numbers get bigger. I do believe however that Cisco may indeed get there by targeting new markets and really begining to turn the screws on their market dominance. In either case I don't think Cisco is fully valued - yet - and certainly $9B in revenues in 98 with $2B in income ($2/share), earnings are within reach given that $900M and .92 cents are in the books already. Gary