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Biotech / Medical : PFE (Pfizer) How high will it go? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BigKNY3 who wrote (508)	2/14/1998 7:40:00 AM
From: BigKNY3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9523

Here are highlights from "The Peabody Model" posted on 2/08/98 on AOL. The Peabody Report is usually updated every Sunday on the Pfizer Board located on AOL's Motley Fool. BigKNY3 ___________________________________________ The Peabody Model (2/08/98) A complete history of The Peabody Model can be found on the 9/06/97 Peabody Report located on the Pfizer Board in AOL's Motley Fool. The updated major findings of the Model are as follows: 1. Since 1990, there has been a cyclical nature to PFE prices related to intermediate high PFE prices (Peabody Peaks) and intermediate low PFE prices (Peabody Valleys). For those engineers and math teachers out in cyberland, it looks like a sine curve that is consistently moving higher. Since 1990, the average PFE increase from Valley to Peak is +33.0%, while the average decline from Peak to Valley is -15.6%. (the average risk of buying at all-time highs). 2. There is a direct relationship (correlation) between PFE and the general market (r=.55). As the market goes, so goes the direction of PFE. The minute by minute PFE price movement versus the Dow Jones almost always matches. 3. Only 20% of PFE's price movement is related to the PFundamentals of Pfizer. Approximately 50% is related to the Big Pharma environment (r=.80) and 30% is related to the general market direction. Since Big Pharma is also correlated to the general market, 80% of PFE movement results from Pfundamentals that are not even related to the company. 4. Major pharm companies move together. Regression analysis has confirmed this group movement. PFE moves with SGP,BMY, LLY, MRK and ABT (all r>.60) and least like SBH, WLA, its Lipitor partner, AMGN, GLX and PU (r<.50). PFE is even positively correlated with VVUS (r=.20). As of 2/08/98, the major correlation relationships are as follows (greater relationships are indicated by higher positive numbers): ..................PFE.......................... PFE ..................Correlation .......................... Correlation .................. Factors ..................................Factors Big Pharma 80% ........................ BMY...... 71% S&P 500 57%......................... SGP..... 69% Dow Jones 55%........................ LLY...... 63% NASDAQ 37% ........................ MRK..... 64% ..................................................... ABT..... 61% ...................................................... JNJ..... 54% ...................................................... AHP... 49% ......................................................GLX.... 35% ......................................................SBH... 41% ...................................................... WLA....33% ...................................................... AMGN...24% ....................................................... PNU.... 25% ......................................................VVUS....20% Other Model Correlations DJ versus S&P............... 93% DJ versus NASDAQ........78% DJ versus Big Pharma.......78% PFE History (1987-1997) .......................PFE......% Change Date.............. Price.....Prior Year.............Comments 12/31/87......5.82.........25.0% .......Bear market/market crash 12/30/88......7.25..........24.7% 12/29/89......8.69......... 19.9% 12/31/90.....10.10........ 16.2% 12/31/91......21.00.......108.0%...... 2-1 split (2/91) 12/31/92.....18.13........ -13.7%......Clinton elected president 12/31/93.....17.25....... -4.8%........Healthcare reform pending 12/30/94......19.32....... 12.0% 12/29/95.......31.50....... 63.1%....... 2-1 split (6/95) 12/30/96......41.50....... 31.7% 12/31/97......74.56....... 79.7%........ 2-1 split (6/30/97) Monthly and Quarterly PFE Summary (1993-1998) ................... Avg % Chg .................... 93-98 January........3.4% February.......-5.0% March.......... -0.4% April............. 7.0% May............. 5.1% June............2.8% July............. -1.1% August.........1.5% September.... 4.9% October........ 8.2% November.... 4.7% December..... 1.5% .......................... Avg % Chg ..........................93-97 First Quarter........-3.2% Second Quarter...15.9% Third Quarter........5.1% Fourth Quarter......13.9% Since it is based solely on historical price trends, The Peabody Model should always be placed in context of the market environments and anticipated news. As evidenced by the mythical Peabody Portfolio (see section below), the Peabody Model works particularly well for investors with a "buy, hold,and buy more at the Valley" investing strategy. The Peabody Portfolio (2/08/98) On 2/02/98, The Peabody Porfolio hit a classic double! The mythical Peabody Portfolio consists of Mr. Peabody's 13 aggressive PFE purchase recommendations listed on AOL's Motley Fool PFE Board since August 14, 1996 . A total of 200 shares (100 shares pre-split) were purchased at each recommendation. The last purchase of 200 shares of PFE @ 55.125 (8/8/97) has returned 46.7% (2/06/98). To date, the Portfolio has purchased 2,600 PFE shares at an average price of $42.72 (only 4.1% off the subsequent next PFE Valleys). ________________________________________ # PFE Shares Purchased:........ 2,600 Average Price of Purchases:.....$42.72 Current Total Value:.............. $210,275 Total Costs:.......................... $111,063 Total Profit:.......................... +$ 99,213 % Return: ............................ +89.3% % Annualized Return:...........+85.6% Peabody Valley and Peak PForecast (2/08/98): The Peabody Model PForecasts PFE is heading lower to a Peabody Valley of 74.25 by March 3, 1998. If this trend direction is incorrect, it is PForecasted that the current pending Peabody Peak (85 1/16) will increase to 87.00 by February 23, 1998.