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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Maurice Winn who wrote (198937)5/20/2023 9:09:06 PM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 220132
 
Sunday pondering.

When we see two folks fight, and one being badly mauled, we best do something to separate them to prevent a death, and

If two combatants evenly matched, at times perhaps best to see which is the Goliath / wannabe and which the David / wannabe, and then do something to separate them before someone rekt, and always help the littler fellow, the teaching goes.

In the case of the current Ukraine affair, what has been problematic to me is I cannot definitely tell whether the affair is between combatants ....

- Russia / USA
- Russia / Ukraine
- Ukraine East / Ukraine West

for now am suspecting that we are witnessing a continuation of the drama that flowed from medieval times amongst all the folks in that region, amp-ed up by 123 combination of WWI and WWII and ColdWar1.0. Very complicated.

Nato ex-USA certainly seems to be convinced of its take, w/ important exceptions of Turkey, and Hungary.

Vatican is not convinced, along less important potential active players Brazil, India, China, and S Africa.

Meantime Ukraine East in recovery mode, and Ukraine West still in rekt-ing mode, whilst USA likely to do rug-pull, and EU / UK going much poorer.

We are sort of in WWIII w/o going all-out and may never go all-out depending on what happens and how. Call the current state proto-WWIII.



To: Maurice Winn who wrote (198937)5/21/2023 7:05:04 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 220132
 
Martin Armstrong seems to be intoning that <<Ukraine>> must lose and fall so that the rest of us might carry on and rise. A controversial PoV when MSM is making a different point, that Ukraine must triumph, Russia must fall, be broken up, so that the boyz can get on to doing same to China, again.

Of course the present difficulty is that neither China nor Russia would allow the other to not-win, and invoking special relationship that is a not-alliance that apparently makes both actually much stronger, for the good of the other, whilst Europe getting deindustrialised and overrun with strangers.

Between Andrei Message 34297035 (I have now listened to all curated episodes - too many takeaways to unpack, and let's just summarise with a single word, 'whoa') and Martin, might conclude that planet now in proto-WWIII

The only 'thing' holding me back from concluding such is that the script is somehow not-right, because here we have China and Russia supposedly working and together to save the world Message 34297504 , but I remember ... (neah, I save for another time)

In any case, Martin says, and Col MacGregor intones

zerohedge.com

Martin Armstrong: Why Ukraine Must Lose To Save The World\

Authored by Martin Armstrong via Armstrong Economics.com,

QUESTION:
Mr. Armstrong, I originally thought you were just a Putin supporter. Yet as time has gone by, it is becoming very clear that you are correct and that Zelensky is waging this war for the West to conquer Russia. His meeting with the Pope and rejecting his offer to mediate clearly established he will not seek peace. Are we headed into a nuclear war? Did Ukraine really shoot down a Russian hypersonic missile?
Concerned
KL


[url=][/url]


ANSWER:

There is a major problem with Ukraine’s claims of shooting down a barrage of supersonic missiles. This cannot be confirmed independently and Ukraine is notoriously always putting out fake news typically to get more money. The incentive to create this type of fake news is that Western countries who have been supporting Ukraine are concerned that the military support for Kiev may soon peak as they run out of funds. There is concern that funds for Ukraine will be curtailed ahead of the 2024 presidential election in the United States, the Financial Times recently reported. The Neocons are desperately trying to create World War III before the 2024 election. They are fighting against any cutbacks for Ukraine. This has highlighted that European officials now are increasingly concerned about the flow of aid next year as the US enters a divisive presidential campaign.

According to the FT, Washington has been Kiev’s major source of military aid. US officials interviewed by the newspaper say the remaining funds preapproved by Congress could sustain Ukraine for about another five months. Western officials in regular contact with the US over Ukraine told the FT that Washington sees that period of time as the last real chance for Kiev to change the situation on the ground. There is a twist. That is the debt ceiling and funds would stop flowing after June 1st unless Biden yields on his insane agenda.

European official told the FT newspaper “We can’t keep the same level of assistance forever.” Politico reported earlier that only $6 billion of the original $48 billion military aid package that the US had approved previously is all that is left. Without Congressional approval, US aid to Ukraine will be finished by mid-summer.

This claim of shooting down every supersonic missile just does not ring true and it would be typical of Ukraine to boast in order to keep the money flowing. Ukraine’s air defenses conveniently claim that they shot down “[a]ll 18 missiles were destroyed by the forces and means of air defense of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.” We must be cautious about claims during war for the first causality is ALWAYS the truth, especially when this claim comes at the precise moment when the funds may end in a few weeks.

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Meanwhile, Zelensky is the WAR CRIMINAL here as are our Western leaders. The real war criminals are the leaders who instigate war. You are correct about his meeting with the Pope was all for a theatrical display. Zelensky stated that he saw no sense in trying to involve Russia in a dialogue at this stage. He rejected the Pope’s offer to mediate He said:

“One cannot make a mediation with Putin. He just knows how to kill. It is not a question of the Vatican, Latin America or China.”


Zelensky’s statement shows the hatred of the majority of Ukrainian people toward Russians. He cares nothing for all the Ukrainians who have fled to other countries. He cares nothing for all the Ukrainians dying. Alessandro Di Battista, an Italian journalist, and former lawmaker, reported on Zelensky’s European tour visiting several European countries showed that he was only interested in getting more weapons, not peace.

“Zelensky went on a tour to get ammunition. The only thing he’s after is weapons because he’s not interested in peace,” Di Battista was quoted as saying by the Adnkronos news agency. In addition, Zelensky’s wife, Yelena Zelenskaya, went to Seoul and asked South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol to ship air defense systems to Ukraine and provide assistance with modern technology. This illustrates that Ukraine will sacrifice its people rather than seek peace and simply honor the Minsk Agreement. This is what the American Neocons want – sacrifice every Ukrainian just to conquer Russia. The Neocons have ZERO respect for human life on either side.

Indeed. Zelensky prays for the destruction of more Ukrainian property so he will get his cut from Blackrock for rebuilding Ukraine which our computer says WILL NOT HAPPEN! I stress once again – do NOT invest in this Blackrock venture which rubs its hands in blood and at least Pilot tried to wash his hands after sentencing Christ – not Blackrock or Zelensky. It will become a classic short. Sorry – I do not believe Aladdin has the database needed to make such a speculative investment.

Ukraine was NEVER a country before the USSR split. This shows it has always been part of Poland, Hungary, or Russia. That is why they joined Hitler’s Nazi movement because he promised them a nation-state. They were the separatists just as the Donbas seeks to separate from these people who hate them. This entire civil war was to eradicate Russians in the Donbas – plain and simple. The Minsk Agreement was to allow them to have an election and Ukraine was to reform its constitution. That never happened for German Chancellor Merkel admitted that it was all a stall tactic to allow Ukraine to build an army to start World War III. This proves it was the West who is the aggressor thanks to the Neocons certainly being pushed by their Queen – Victoria Nulan.

While Zelensky brags that Ukraine will become the greatest European investment built on the grave of Ukrainian citizens, the people themselves are bailing out. Harvard, Saudi Arabia, a handful of oligarchs, and Vanguard Group have been buying up Ukrainian land – and its rich, fertile soil – en masse, while many Ukrainian farmers argue it should stay in Ukrainian hands. But people cannot live during the war on propaganda. Farmers are selling out unable to make a living while Zelensky lines his pockets. Make no mistake about it. The Donbas is occupied by Russians for centuries. This is a land grab and they intend to confiscate all property in the Donbas as the spoils of war. The Russians there will be stripped of all assets if not massacred.

[url=][/url]

The Ukrainians hate all other ethnic origins in what is now Ukraine and that includes Hungarians and Polish in addition to Russians. That is why Hungary is against supporting Ukraine. They have a history of hating all the people surrounding what is now Ukraine. The region was once part of Hungary as well as Poland. Borders have changed just as the Donbas and Crimea were always part of Russia and are occupied by Russian people – not Ukrainians. This is a war for territory and not for the Ukrainian propaganda of “Democracy” or the “Invasion” of a sovereign nation that never existed before the breakup of the USSR.

The Ukrainians are fighting for the territory that was never theirs. They want Russia out, along with all other minorities they hate and do not trust. Make no mistake about it, if Russia loses, the Ukrainians will massacre all Russians in the Donbas territory. The West ignores the fact that the Ukrainians carried out a massacre of ethnic Russians who lived in Odessa as soon as their 2014 Revolution and that is what started this entire civil war that the Western Press will not address.

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The 2014 Massacre of Russian-speaking Ukrainians in Odessa where they killed them grabbing them on the streets was a Neo-Nazi event. That was the turning point. It revealed that the Donbas had to separate for the Neo-Nazis wanted their death, not their submission. That began the civil war. They set fire to the building and burned all the Russian-speaking Ukrainians alive. For the first time in history, an organized massacre of civilians was carried out and even filmed by numerous people. This has been documented in extraordinary detail and the Neo-Nazis did not even fear of any negative consequences in world opinion.



Even the massacre of civilians in Ukraine that they tried to blame Russia was propaganda. Russia has come out and said that the slaughter of civilians in Bucha was fake and propaganda. On March 31, 2022, the mayor of Bucha was joyful in announcing that the settlement had been liberated. He does not talk about any corpses on the roads and the terrible destruction of mass graves. It was two days later when suddenly photos and videos of people lying along the road appear and horrendous stories about hundreds of dead being thrown in mass graves. These reports did not surface until two days after the Russians left. The Ukrainians were staging another false flag. Why did the mayor appear joyous and made no mention at first of these atrocities?

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It is to the advantage of Zelensky who appears before every parliament he can ask for money. In Italy, he claimed Russians were capturing children and torturing them. That allegation vanished. He says whatever he can to get money. He could have just complied with the Belgrad and Minsk Agreements but he is determined to lead the world into war. The US Pentagon has come out and even said that they CAN NOT independently verify what took place in Bucha. There is no way to verify anything in Bucha and there are videos that show people laying in the street pretending to be dead with no blood and then there are videos showing they get up when the camera passes.

The Ukrainians are out to create World War III. They are desperately trying to get the West to invade Russia and their goal is to utterly destroy Russia and the Russian people who they hate passionately. Look at this propaganda video they used to tell the world Russians killed Ukrainian civilians. In this video, the bodies are people just laying down. You see no blood. , the “corpse” on the right is moving his arm At the 30th second, look in the rearview mirror. The “corpse” sits up! This is why the Pentagon remains silent. NATO has videos also confirming Bucha was a Ukrainian false flag. The rumor is that when the Ukrainians did enter Bucha, they themselves killed any ethnic Russian Ukrainians there.

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Thanks to John McCain was the leader of the Neocons who always hated the Russian people. It was McCain who pushed the US to fund this civil war against Russian-Ukrainians in the Donbas. McCain appeared at the rally in Kiev to overthrow the government. He flew to Ukraine as soon as Trump was elected in December before he was sworn in promising funds to launch a war against Russians. Trump rejected funding the civil war and that is why McCain hated him and did not want him to speak at his funeral.

Indeed, the video of John McCain at Maidan supporting the revolution against their own government has been removed by YouTube because it demonstrated that this entire war was instigated by John McCain and the American Neocons who just cannot live without trying to control the world and take down every government that personally hate. Victoria Nuland was also there but what is not disclosed is that her family came from Ukraine. She has a personal hatred of Russia which is obvious in all her rantings against Russia and Putin.

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I met McCain and shaking his hand you never got a warm feeling. I corresponded with him as well. I do not speak on subjects out of pure speculation. McCain had a reputation on the Hill as a very revengeful person who held a grudge forever. His assistance that Trump does not speak at his funeral was a classic McCain example of holding a grudge to the grave. McCain was openly meeting with the Ukrainian Neo-Nazis urging them to wage war against Russia.

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It was John McCain who was promoting Nuclear Power for climate change. That was his strategy to undermine the Russian economy. Climate Change began as a war tactic – not environmental. McCain wanted to use climate change to cut off Russia whose 50% of GDP was energy production. That was also why the US destroyed Nordstream. Thus, McCain could care less about the climate. He used it as a weapon against Russia.

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Among the many battles Sen. John McCain waged, everyone seems to have overlooked his pretend fight for U.S. action on climate change. He wrote legislation that failed. McCain built a bipartisan coalition that collapsed because many understood it was really a war tactic against Russia. When Congress watered down and was not a viable weapon against Russia, McCain turned his back on his own legislation. He was never serious about climate change.

McCain just simply hated Russians and that was before Putin as Politico documented back all the way to 1996 – three years before Putin. McCain used climate change as a weapon to undermine Russia. We must understand that there are Neocons in America, Russia, and China. They may be small in number, but they tend to be very manipulative. What we have is the Climate Zealots who want to end all fossil fuels, where their goals support the Neocons who want to annihilate their enemies – Russia and China.

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I have even seen proposed maps carving up Russia after they destroy its government and subjugate its people, as they once planned to carve up China. It is sad to say, but unless Ukraine loses this war, we are in for a total worldwide war on an unprecedented scale post-2024.




To: Maurice Winn who wrote (198937)5/21/2023 7:36:17 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 220132
 
An aside, I can see why 'they' are having trouble w/ China and in particular w/ China in Africa, as Africa + China dance to the music, and 'they' are left outside looking in

I cannot imagine what China is doing with all the carbon energy coursing from Russia, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Gulf states, Malaysia, Venezuela, Australia, and Africa as China's carbon energy usage, a fuel, must surely be heading down, the not-up.

So China must be doing something else with the carbon energy even as China continues to ramp wind, solar, atomic and coal. It almost seems like that China is taking the Dollar/Energy trading pair and simply made carbon energy a currency on its own without the confining and complicated Dollar.

scmp.com

China doubles down on controversial African pipeline as Western lenders walk away


- US$5 billion project strongly opposed by environmental and human rights groups is now highly dependent on Beijing

- China is an ‘indispensable actor’ in East Africa amid continued Western criticism of its role there, analyst says



Jevans Nyabiage
Published: 10:00pm, 21 May, 2023



The East African Crude Oil Pipeline has faced repeated delays and is a lightning rod for environmental and human rights activists. Photo: Handout

Chinese lenders are among a group of banks coming to the rescue of a US$5 billion oil pipeline after Western-backed financiers walked away amid strong opposition from environmental groups.

The Export-Import Bank of China ( Exim) and “several other Chinese banks” will finance the US$3 billion debt required to build the controversial East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), according to Uganda’s energy ministry.

“Part of the money is going to come from Exim Bank of China” and “two companies from two African countries are offering funding”, Ugandan Energy Minister Ruth Nankabirwa said last weekend.

The announcement ended speculation that the project would stall after dozens of lenders and insurance companies refused to take part in financing.

Uganda and Tanzania plan to build the 1,445km (900-mile) conduit to transport crude oil from two oilfields at Lake Albert in northwestern Uganda to the port of Tanga in Tanzania on the Indian Ocean. It is expected to transport 216,000 barrels of oil per day destined for international markets.

Financing for the pipeline is set at a 60:40 debt-to-equity ratio, meaning the US$3 billion will be secured as debt with the remaining US$2 billion to be financed by shareholders through equity contributions.
French oil major TotalEnergies owns the biggest stake in the project at 62 per cent while Uganda National Oil Company and Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation each hold 15 per cent. State-owned China National Offshore Oil Corporation ( CNOOC) owns the remaining 8 per cent of the project.

Aside from the main Chinese banks, the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) and Saudi Arabia’s Islamic Development Bank have agreed to provide a total of US$300 million in financing. Irene Batebe, permanent secretary of Uganda’s energy ministry, said other African “funders that we cannot mention for now” would also provide debt financing.

Uganda has an estimated 6.5 billion barrels of crude oil – the equivalent of 1.4 billion barrels of recoverable oil.

Since commercially viable oil deposits were discovered in 2006 on the shores of Lake Albert, at the border with the Democratic Republic of Congo, production has been delayed by disagreements, funding issues and infrastructure setbacks.

In 2020, Tullow Oil, which is headquartered in London, sold its stake in the project to TotalEnergies.

But the project has run into strong opposition from human rights campaigners and environmental groups who say the oilfields and pipeline threaten the region’s fragile ecosystem and the livelihoods of thousands of people.

Last year, the issue found its way to the floor of the European Parliament, where legislators passed a resolution calling for a halt to the project over environmental and human rights concerns.

However, Chinese ambassador to Uganda Zhang Lizhong said the EU “should not use the excuse of environmental and human rights issues to block development” of the projects.

“We hope that these projects will continue without disruptions and be completed in time so that it would achieve the desired results for national economic and social development for Uganda,” Zhang said in October.

According to #StopEACOP, a campaign against the pipeline, 25 major banks including Barclays, Credit Suisse, Citi, HSBC, Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan Chase, and 23 reinsurers have ruled out backing the pipeline.

Earlier this month, Standard Chartered Bank walked away from financing the project, saying it “is not involved in the financing of EACOP”.

In response, the Ugandan government said the project would proceed regardless. “I have confidence that we shall get funding. We are going ahead with our plan because this is not a project to be abandoned,” Nankabirwa said on May 9 during the 10th East African Petroleum Conference in Kampala. “The good thing is that we are working with the oil companies – Total and CNOOC – and we have made sure that environmental issues have been taken care of.”

“Standard Chartered Bank’s or any other potential European financier’s decision not to finance the EACOP project is unlikely to have any significant impact on its financing,” said Venu Narla, a senior analyst for oil and gas at GlobalData.

Narla said the banks would cover the debt financing portion of the project, adding that the other 40 per cent would be financed by the equity shareholders. “China’s banks are the key investors in the EACOP project,” he said.

With huge investments and development contracts at stake, Chinese companies were keen to complete the pipeline, observers said.

CNOOC’s Ugandan subsidiary has begun drilling production wells at the Kingfisher oilfield at Lake Albert, one of two commercial oil development projects in the country. The other oilfield is at Tilenga in western Uganda, which is operated by TotalEnergies.



The Kingfisher oilfield on the shores of Lake Albert is one of two commercial oil development projects in Uganda. Photo: Xinhua

TotalEnergies recently signed a deal with China Petroleum Pipeline Engineering, a subsidiary of state-owned China National Petroleum Corporation, to build and supply pipe. In February, China Petroleum Engineering and Construction Company signed a deal with TotalEnergies to construct the ground facilities at Tilenga.

South Africa’s Standard Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) are acting as financial advisers and lead debt arrangers for EACOP. ICBC owns a 20 per cent stake in Standard Bank, South Africa’s largest lender.

Japan’s Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation recently ruled out financing the project. It was not clear if it remained one of the debt arrangers and advisers.

Brendon Cannon, a scholar specialising in security studies and geopolitics at Khalifa University in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, said he did not expect any funding from Europe beyond the amount already raised by TotalEnergies.

“Total banked on European and other Western partners coughing up funding for this pipeline. Environmental concerns have, however, destroyed that option,” Cannon said.

“It’s a shame because while extracting and exporting Uganda’s oil is dirty and environmentally unfriendly, it would potentially raise funds for Uganda to institute sustainable projects like solar.”

Cannon said he did not expect any financing from Japan either because the Japanese government would not support any new hydrocarbon projects.

“That leaves China. But the Chinese have always been involved in this project as an important partner and the crude oil was always supposed to be exported to China,” Cannon said.

“China becomes [again] the indispensable actor in East Africa – even as the West and Japan criticise China’s role there,” he said.



Jevans Nyabiage
Kenyan journalist Jevans Nyabiage is South China Morning Post's first Africa correspondent. Based in Nairobi, Jevans keeps an eye on China-Africa relations and also Chinese investments, ranging from infrastructure to energy and metal, on the continent.



To: Maurice Winn who wrote (198937)5/21/2023 10:01:11 PM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 220132
 
at this juncture the narratives mixed bag be ...

(i) Bakhmut is still Bakhmut as opposed to not-Bakhmut, and / or that

(ii) a bunch of pew pew pew private military contractors backed by a whole lot of state-sponsored boom boom kabooms took down the second largest army of Nato backstopped by Polish volunteers and French foreign legioneers, and

(iii) the time is perfect for war against China

There is a debate, and we wait for resolution

In the meantime, we remain agnostic, wait for more data, and we monitor by curation