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Biotech / Medical : Biotime-Nasdaq's best kept secret? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Wexler who wrote (667)	2/13/1998 11:49:00 PM
From: Jim Roof	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1432

Bill, Here are a few of the outstanding lies. 1.) Hextend does not show superiority over generic hetastarch solutions. Evidence for this comes from the phaseIII clinical trials BUT it is a total misinterpretation of the figures in light of the actual physiological events that take place when volume expansion it administered. Those who point to a lower platelet count and lower hemoglobin/hematocrit numbers are content to say "Look! lower numbers... that's bad!" but in fact the lower numbers have a positive story to tell. These numbers are lower because the Hextend patients did not need as much platelet and whole blood replacement after the use of Hextend because Hextend DID IT'S JOB BETTER. Hetastarch patients lost more blood due to poor clotting and hence needed platelets and more transfused blood. 2.) Biotime has no potential for future earnings (this is your line too). This remains to be answered definitively but I will say that if Hextend is demonstrably superior to hetastarch and exhibits just some of the advantages of albumin (which data indicates) then garnering a mere 25% of the existing hetastarch market in the US alone would put serious earnings behind a mere 9M shares. 3.) FDA approval probably will not happen - a very small percentage of new drugs are approved and Hextend is therefore a longshot at best. Right and wrong. FDA approval for new drugs is staked in favor of dismissal but the fact that Hextend skipped phase I and phase II where the majority of drugs fail shows the FDA's understanding and willingness to approve Hextend with almost no hitches in the process. I am not really knowledgeable about certain ins and outs of drug approval but I understand that what Biotime is going after right now is basically and 'equivalency' approval rather than a new drug approval. The new drug approval could come online later I believe - if that is even necessary. 4.) Biotime is too small to market and produce any product. This one is true. But to offset this is the fact that they are not going to have to do either. Abbott labs will produce and market Hextend for North American use while Biotime's main responsibility in the money making process will be to get the checks out of the mail and deliver them to the bank. Biotime's royalty structure with Abbott is just part of the picture as Nihon (Japan) has signed a letter of intent and Europe is currently being courted as well. I think that BTIM has shown strong support at 12 and your short at 17 may make you some money but I think the upside here is greater than the downside potential. As for your claims that the float is manipulated - upon what do you make this assessment? I would argue that if manipulation is taking place it is that of the short raids tearing into BTIM upon the release of good news and the corresponding lies from Asencio and his ilk. How is Biotime promoting the stock? I have not seen any promotions that seem odd. I have seen Alan Ableson writing factually deficient articles in Barron's that make Oprah's beef scare look like nothing and other publications have panned BTIM as well but upon close examination one almost always finds a short interest at the end of the money trail or a clear misunderstanding of the facts and nuances of this companies business. The trading activity over the last few days is totally in line with the way it has traded for the last 15-18 months. I have been in it for that long and BTIM is capable of almost 'ratchet-like' movements both up and down. Finally, do you think it wise to have just shorted a stock with about 15-20% short interest and a large group of investors who still think that Abbott Labs knows more about Biotime's potential than a rabid shortseller? It will not take much more of a rally for those 1.6M shares to run for cover. From a technical standpoint the move from the mid-20's to the low teens is not extraordinarily bothersome when you consider that someone who has been in this stock for a litel more than a year is still looking at a 100% gain. And those in it for longer are into the 500-1000% area. Oh, I almost forgot to tell you this. You shorted BTIM at about the same price that an insider bought 3000 more shares just about 2 weeks ago. He and the other insiders have not sold a single share yet that we know of and they continue to accumulate. Have fun, Jim