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Biotech / Medical : Alteon (ALT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Gambler who wrote (213)	2/16/1998 5:08:00 PM
From: Bill Tomko	Respond to of 318

I can't comment as to why it moved last week vs. the week before or next week. That said you have to realize that this is what I call a binary outcome stock,i.e. it either works for a lot or it is a wipe-out. If you believe that it will work out, I strongly believe it will, then this is a very cheap stock. If on the orther hand you don't think it will then you don't want in at any price. A significant element of risk goes out of this stock in March when the last interium clinical review prioir to study completion occures. The products in clinical study together with second generation study represent annual sales potenial in excesss of a billion dollars. With 20 some million share o/s ( counts genetech conversion) the market cap is in the 300 to 400 million range. When compared to the sales potenial and as a mulitple of R&D spending to date, the current price looks reasonable to me. Laslty the action I clinical should complete this June to July accordingly a FDA filing could occure as early as late 4'th q of this year and therefore sales could occure in the 3'd q of 1999 with potenailly 2 more products following, action II and the ESRD study.