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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DMaA who wrote (2138)	2/13/1998 11:08:00 PM
From: Bucky Katt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

DA--It means things are about 3 times worse than we now think. It means hundreds of millions of Chinese rioting. It means loss of jobs here. A lot of lost jobs. They have nukes. A lot of them. Think they won't use 'em?

To: DMaA who wrote (2138)	2/14/1998 10:56:00 AM
From: Mohan Marette	Respond to of 9980

David: One reason why the Chinese devaluation at this point in time will be bad is because this might create another round of panic and devaluation in other S.E.Countries to keep up with the Chinese,sort of like a vicious circle thing, as these countries heavily depends on their exports.Then the big question will be where will this 'devaluation' end? There are other repercussions as well,both economic and social but the one mentioned above seems to be the primary concern,at least from what I can tell.

To: DMaA who wrote (2138)	2/15/1998 2:46:00 AM
From: lin luo	Respond to of 9980

What will happen if the Chinese devalue their currency? It is like everything 50% off at WalMart. What do you think the little stores on the corner going to do? Controlling your own currency is like controlling three vital signs of your body, especially when you are still young and weak. The Chinese opened everything from stock market to the most dangerous futures markets which basically traded on margins (about 10% of underlying securities). But, they kept their currency intact. They have over $100 billion in US treasury debts. In case of emergency, my view is that they can just dump these debts on the markets to repay their debts. They have more foreign reserves than foreign debts. What do you think the T-bond is going to do, drop 30 points with yield of 10%? and what about the DOW? 60% correction? The whole Hong Kong market is about $350 billion market cap, which is about INTC and MSFT combined. They are heavily influenced by the US mutual funds. Just imagine all the big names only trade INTC and MSFT all the time. So, it not a very efficient market, and trading is more technical than fundamental. The Asian stock markets are not the main concerns to the west. It is the debts and currencies swaps they did with these countries that really make them nervous. These swaps are not really trades, they are based on the company's underlying worth, not their cash reserve. They can lose everything. You simply can not hold them like stocks. The crisis will be over sooner or later. It is not the leaders of these countries who are corrupted or something about the social systems. They have been running their countries for thousand years. They just had bad lucks in the past several hundred years. The wind and water take turns. If you know what it really means.