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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bull_dozer who wrote (199356)	6/8/2023 7:43:49 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217679

Re <<JPMorgan>> the mrs bought a "Daily Callable Fixed Coupon Note" from JPM against my counsel. I was not vociferous because I do not mind she being put the underlying 'straggler' asset out of the pair, and in the big picture doesn't matter. I really do NOT like structured-product because I believe they are invariably priced wrong against the buyer, and I believe I can and do sometimes duplicate them with combo of puts and calls. I just do not like complicated / complex wagers. Here be the term in a nut shell ... meaning (1) the wager is that GLD and GDX shall rise, but not more than 100% between now and 22 December 2023. Should either rise 100+%, the note gets called away and wife gets 100% return, plus the yield / premium collected (2) gamble is also that neither GLD nor GDX drops to 70.22% of current price on 22 December 2023, and should either be below 70.22% of current price, wife gets a lot of GDX or GLD depending on which dropped more (3) wife shall earn 6% for 6-months paid monthly (12% apy) - I believe I can do 18% but do not wish to intervene because enough is enough and do not wish to take unnecessary responsibility (4) tax free (everything is tax-free in HK except salary and rental income) because we live under communism Let's see. Now we see why / how JPM plays. JPM is NOT playing with their own money! just playing the market against the market, and getting paid a 6% apy fee, that which we know as good-money.

To: bull_dozer who wrote (199356)

6/8/2023 7:57:53 PM

From: TobagoJack

2 Recommendations

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fred woodall

Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 217679

Re <<Billions of Underwater Debt Securities>>

"I don't think you have to have perfect timing. But you should be comfortable if prices do continue to fall before they start to rally," he said.

kitco.com
Run away from AAPL, NVDA and the entire tech sector as fast as you can and start buying gold - The High-Tech Strategist's Fred Hickey

( Kitco News) - The rally in the tech sector that is driving equity markets is not sustainable, according to one market strategist, who says investors should be looking to diversify their portfolio and move into the precious metal sector.

In an interview with Kitco News, Fred Hickey, creator of The High-Tech Strategist investment newsletter, said that he thinks it's only a matter of time before gold prices push to record highs as the precious metal holds its ground at elevated levels. Unlike the tech sector, Hickey noted that the gold market is on solid ground as prices hold critical support even as investor interest has fallen sharply.

"There is zero interest from the Western world in gold right now. There is less than zero interest in mining stocks," he said. "And yet gold prices are holding around $1,970 an ounce."

Hickey noted that central bank demand and massive overseas interest in the precious metal are helping to support prices as Western investors continue to shun it. However, he added that as soon as sentiment turns, he would expect gold prices to break to significant all-time highs.

"We are going to blast through record highs and I think it will happen a lot sooner than some people think," he said. "It's not going to take much longer before people realize that the economy is at the breaking point."

As to what will prompt investors back into the gold market and the mining sector, Hickey said that investors need to pay attention to what is happening in the tech sector. He said that although the major tech companies like Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) and Nvidia (Nasdaq: NVDA) have seen solid gains this year, it's only a matter of time before the trend reserves as the economy falls further into a recession.

Hickey added that for him, the U.S. has been in a recession for the last year as both equity and bond markets collectively saw their worst losses in roughly a century.

"This is nothing but a classic bear-market rally," he said. A few tech companies are booming, but this is the greatest disconnect to reality that I have ever seen. Every indicator, except for the [nonfarm payrolls report], shows recessionary conditions. You listen to what companies are saying, and they are telling us that demand is dropping, and they see difficult economic conditions."

Hickey pointed out that Nvidia has seen a record stock price, but earlier this week, the Semiconductor Industry Association said that chip sales are down more than 20% from last year.

Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) is another example of an overvalued tech stock. Hickey pointed out that share prices are near record highs, but the company has negative earnings and revenue. "Their growth has collapsed."

As to what is driving this new FOMO (fear of missing out) in the tech sector, Hickey said that the mania is caused by new interest in artificial intelligence. However, he added that AI has been around for decades and is unlikely to cause significant societal changes anytime soon, despite all the hype.

He said that the price action in the tech sector is similar to other recessions like the 2000s dot-com bubble and the 2008 Great Financial Crisis.

"The markets change, the faces change; the names change, but human psychology never does," he said. "We are in a bear market; we are in a recession, but investors just won't give up. They won't give up the dream of the great tech stocks that are going to take them to a new, richer place."

As the liquidity-induced "everything bubble" continues to pop, Hickey said that investors at this point should get as far away from the tech sector as they can. He noted that in other bear markets, tech companies have seen their share prices collapse as much as 60%.

"You should be running as fast as you can away from them," he said.

Hickey said that he has been out of the tech sector for most of the year and has been buying short-term money market bonds with yields of nearly 5%, maturing in June and July. He added that he has been buying gold and mining companies as the bonds mature.

"I have been putting my cash to work. Right now, we are in the weakest seasonal period for gold and this is the time to buy," he said. "The market might not take off next week, but I think we are close enough to the rally that I am starting to buy."

As to what companies Hickey likes, he said that he is focusing on the bigger producers that have solid production in safe jurisdictions like North America and Australia. He added that for generalist investors, companies like Agnico Eagle, Barrick Gold and Newmont are safe investments and will benefit from higher gold prices.

Hickey said that while junior explorers will see the most explosive growth as gold prices push to new all-time highs, investors must be cautious. He explained that if you are not going to do your homework and research, larger producers with solid production are safer bets.

"I have a lot of stuff to cover and I don't have enough time in the day to spend looking at exploration results. You would be safe looking at well-managed companies with good production."

Although Hickey is bullish on gold through the rest of the year, he said he would not be surprised to see prices fall lower in the near-term. He added that he would not be surprised to see gold fall to $1,900 an ounce.

"I don't think you have to have perfect timing. But you should be comfortable if prices do continue to fall before they start to rally," he said.

To: bull_dozer who wrote (199356)	6/12/2023 10:16:49 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217679

Gold bullish, because energy-derived CNY can be converted to physical gold on the SGE, the world's largest physical gold exchange Unclear to me whether sanctioned energy shall be enhanced by sanction-proof gold, or the other way around, but something is happening reuters.com Exclusive: Pakistan paid in Chinese currency for discounted Russian oil- minister Ariba Shahid June 13, 20231:51 AM GMT+8 Updated 8 hours ago ISLAMABAD, June 12 (Reuters) - Pakistan paid for its first government-to-government import of discounted Russian crude oil in Chinese currency, the South Asian country's petroleum minister said on Monday, a significant shift in its U.S. dollar-dominated export payments policy. Discounted crude offers a respite as Pakistan faces an economic crisis with an acute balance of payments problem, risking a default on its external debt. The foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank are scarcely enough to cover a month of controlled imports. The first cargo of discounted Russian crude oil arranged under a deal struck between Islamabad and Moscow earlier this year arrived in Karachi on Sunday. It is currently being offloaded at the port in the southern city of Karachi. Petroleum Minister Musadik Malik, speaking to Reuters by telephone, did not disclose the commercial details of the deal, including pricing or the discount that Pakistan received, but said, the "payment (was) made in RMB)". He said the purchase, Pakistan's first government-to-government (G2G) deal with Russia, consisted of 100,000 tonnes, of which 45,000 tonnes had docked at Karachi port and the rest was on its way. Pakistan made the purchase back in April. About its grade, he said, it is Urals, adding this is one of the lighter crudes available. Pakistan's purchase gives Moscow a new outlet to add to growing sales to India and China, as it redirects oil from Western markets because of the Ukraine conflict. Despite being a long-standing Western ally and the arch-rival of neighbouring India, which historically is closer to Moscow, analysts say the crude deal also presents a new avenue for Pakistan at a time when its financing needs are great. Islamabad earlier this month also outlined a process to open barter tradewith Russia, Afghanistan and Iran, another sign of the South Asian economy seeking avenues to buy and sell commodities without trading in dollars, which analysts say could be a shift from West to East. Pakistan's Refinery Limited (PRL) will initially refine the Russian crude, the minister said. He had earlier referred to the purchase of the shipment as a trial run to judge financial and technical feasibility, but said on Monday that all the tests and trials had been done, which found that the Russian crude was fit to refine and market locally. COMMERCIALLY VIABLE He played down concerns around the financial viability and the ability of local refineries to process Russian crude given Pakistan's historical importation of Middle Eastern petroleum products. "We've run iterations of various product mixes, and in no scenario will the refining of this crude make a loss," Malik said, adding: "We are very sure it will be commercially viable." It will be blended with around 60-70% Arabian light crude for refining, he said, adding, "No adjustments (were) needed at the refinery to refine the Russian crude." Malik wouldn't say how much difference the crude will have at the gas station price in the local market, saying, "It will surely make a difference." Energy imports make up the majority of the Pakistan's external payments. Islamabad imported 154,000 bpd of oil in 2022, around the same as the previous year, data from analytics firm Kpler showed. "We're looking to target one-third of our total oil imports at the Russian crude," the minister said. The crude was predominantly supplied by the world's top exporter Saudi Arabia followed by the United Arab Emirates. Reporting by Ariba Shahid and Asif Shahzad, writing by Shilpa Jamkhandikar and Gibran Peshimam; editing by Philippa Fletcher, Toby Chopra and David Evans Ariba ShahidThomson Reuters Ariba Shahid is a journalist based in Karachi, Pakistan. She primarily covers economic and financial news from Pakistan, along with Karachi-centric stories. Ariba has previously worked at DealStreetAsia and Profit Magazine. Asif ShahzadThomson Reuters Shahzad is an accomplished media professional, with over two decades of experience. He primarily reports out of Pakistan, Afghanistan regions, with a great interest and an extensive knowledge of Asia. He also reports on politics, economy, finance, business, commodities, Islamist militancy, human rights

To: bull_dozer who wrote (199356)	6/15/2023 6:38:32 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217679

Re <<Hundreds of Billions of Underwater Debt Securities>> Martin says to be alert to possibility of one more dunking. Pro version of message should be out soon-enough. ask-socrates.com Gold June Low - Beware of July MONDAY, JUNE 12, 2023 BY: MARTIN ARMSTRONG Everything still appears to be on track. Remember, a market ALWAYS makes a false move in the opposite direction of its real intention. This is how markets create the energy to swing in the opposite direction. June looks to be making a low which can be either intraday or on a monthly closing basis. But this is a well-defined pause and not a panic to the downside. Looking at the Monthly Array, we have a DOUBLE Directional Change in July and we may be on the verge of war and a breakout to the upside. We have had three thrusts upward/ The fourth time is the typical breakout. So those looking to buy gold physically may want to do this before mid-July. Follow Socrates. We are entering interesting times. Details are provided on the Pro service for real traders.