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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Keith J who wrote (7865)	2/14/1998 8:55:00 AM
From: Hawk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13594

"We plan to revisit our current model within the next couple of days, at which time we will also evaluate our target price and valuation which we believe is likely to come up." You gotta be kidding. H.

To: Keith J who wrote (7865)	2/14/1998 10:06:00 AM
From: prakash	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13594

I don't think that the Analyst meeting went all that well. I just checked out ML's report. They are saying the company seems to be comfortable with the top end of Fiscal 98 estimate with is .85 and low end of Fiscal 98 estimate which is 1.5. ML also notes Q3 est may be too aggressive. $17M that came to rescue last quarter wont repeat this time. Now for a high flying company like AOL, the street expects the company to surprise quarter after quarter on the upside. If it's just going to "meet expectations", which anybody can do, the mo-mo guys will find something else that can deliver and move on. Give it a few more weeks, people will realize that AOL is nothing more than a "hot air balloon" and will bring it down. Prakash

To: Keith J who wrote (7865)	2/14/1998 11:24:00 AM
From: yuedong wu	Respond to of 13594

"Company is comfortable with our current $1.50 FY1999 SPS, but feels that our $0.93 FY1988 estimate may be high" -That's AOL's game, they said that last year, and will say that next year. Bring down current EPS estimate so that they can "bet expectation". Inflate next years estimate so that the stock can keep high. "We reiterate our strong buy". -What's the strong buy based on? Growth at 61%, which give AOL a $57 fair value. <g>

To: Keith J who wrote (7865)	2/14/1998 12:00:00 PM
From: jack rand	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13594

>>Here's a blurb from AOL on the analyst's meeting: It's from Alex Brown, AOL underwriter, about which even TMF has expressed embarassment at its PR-like gush and lack of any balance. Just look at how it describes 'risk factors'

To: Keith J who wrote (7865)	2/14/1998 10:13:00 PM
From: Pancho Villa	Respond to of 13594

>>It appears that the Company is comfortable with our current $1.50 FY 1999 EPS, but feels that our $0.93 FY 1998 estimate may be high. << Typical of a soft low free cash flow - low margins operation. >>Given our belief that online media and commerce stand to become multi hundred billion dollar markets long term we feel that AOL stock should represent a core holding for media investors seeking exposure to the rapidly growing Internet.<< A lot of BS from analysts. >>We plan to revisit our current model within the next couple of days, at which time we will also evaluate our target price and valuation which we believe is likely to come up. We reiterate our "strong buy"(1) investment rating on AOL stock.<< They will downgrade after dumping their holdings.