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Strategies & Market Trends : TRIPLE TRADES -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (3215)	6/16/2023 10:47:58 AM
From: robert b furman	1 Recommendation Recommended By Bull RidaH Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4432

Good Morning Bull, As a standard rule I always expect the day after all stocks are assigned (in this case Tuesday) to have some adjustment. It usually can be done in that day. There are always nervous call buyers who were assigned shares - especially when the market goes up into expiration - which we surely have done this month. Often the assignment of shares stretches one's margin of lightens the cash balances and new stock holders are skittish and nervous. That being said we are in an up wave, many count it as a three wave, which you know have the strongest of personality. In a three wave all surprises are to the upside. The recession which was broadly advertised and expected has been elusive. It seems as our memories are very short term. YES rates are up and they've been advanced at a fast rate. IMPORTANT to acknowledge is if one backed off the decade of ZERO INTEREST RATE PROGRAM ( ZIRP), the current rates in any past eras (excluding the ZIRP period would be considered extremely supportive to growth! Hard to believe that the past decade reflects that the Fed was being influenced by political events! SHOCKING JUST SHOCKING. We are currently in good times, and the talking heads have made a mountain out of a mole hill for glamour's sake. Hard to expect a recession when we have demand forcing a building boom in single family housing? I do not have a link for it, but timing a stock market recovery after a recession is closely timed to a housing recovery. At these rates it is possible that what we saw was a rolling recession in select sectors only. Bottom line rates are historically cheap. There is an army of Boomers who for the first time in a long time are getting 5-6 percent on their life savings. Many of us have experienced liquidity events of late, after selling off our accumulated businesses to younger people with more fire in their bellies to grow the business while in their prime. Personally I am amazed to see my account is now earning 5% on notes and bills with the 35% of cash that was lying dormant doing nothing for the last several years. I have for the first time in 7 years have found productive diversification from the funds I received from selling my interest in 3 of the 4 dealerships I was invested in from a lifelong career in selling autos. Not a surprise to me that these are indeed good times for myself and I suspect many boomers as well. My system suggests a strong run for the next three weeks. Yesterday Larbro (who is a longer time student of CLX) sent me this chart of the 35 EMA of the daily clx numbers. The 35 ema has a leading edge which gives us a clue as to where the 30 SMA of clx is taking us. Message 34322284 Bull you were a master of EW when I first learned of it. Count out this chart and I'd value your read. My optimistic self thinks there possibly is much more to come than just the pretty diamond you saw way back. If one considers the late Sept 2022 the end of a corrective wave, one can see a fairly clean 5 waves up and a three wave down with a now completed two wave that just barely stopped in time to prevent exceeding the low of the start of the 1 wave. That puts us squarely in the beginning of the mighty three wave, as the 35 EMA CLX just coincidently exceeds zero and peaks over the dotted regression line? One can admittedly agree that very few are onboard this bull rally, it took a diamond to save the 2 wave from dipping below the one wave's start. Afterall rates are going up and the recession that is surely comeing looms in our future - everyone has had that beat into our thinking. Not a bad setup, for a universally touted recession (which has thus far no showed), to devastate equities in a market of historically low interest rates, as we experience a housing boom. Very few on board this Bull! Could it be the diamond simply saved the day, by preventing the two overlapping the one? They say diamond are forever you know. <smile> I may well be influenced by my favorite holding (COHU) just now showing the actions of true triple. Just yesterday's action gave it a close above $40.00 - first in a long time! I would love to hear your read on my possible over exuberance. Bob Yes it does and we arent there yet by a long shot