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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: THE ANT who wrote (199558)6/16/2023 8:36:18 PM
From: TobagoJack1 Recommendation

Recommended By
Alias Shrugged

  Respond to of 217764
 
Regarding the twitter thread your cited, I understand that quite a bit of USA AI talent are ethnic Chinese, and would be quickly frightened in the away directions when push looking like to shove

the other three links you referenced are very interesting as well

besides thinking so Message 34324206

I think such here under re very interesting as well, particularly this hereunder

for the boys and girls, be they he / him, she / her, or other combinations of pronouns made a mistake, imho, by going against the counsel of globaltimes.cn
"Potentially, the most dangerous scenario would be a grand coalition of China, Russia, and perhaps Iran, an 'antihegemonic' coalition united not by ideology but by complementary grievances."

... and so we are here.

imetatronink.substack.com

The Ontological Incoherence of American Imperial ExceptionalismJingoism by any other name still smells the same

William Schryver
Victoria Nuland - High Priestess of the Empire at All Costs Cult
Jingoism originated during the Russo-Turkish War of 1877-1878, when many British citizens were hostile toward Russia and felt Britain should intervene in the conflict. Supporters of the cause expressed their sentiments in a music-hall ditty with this refrain:
We don't want to fight, yet by jingo if we do,
We've got the ships, we've got the men,
We've got the money, too!
Someone holding the attitude implied in the song became known as a jingo or jingoist, and the attitude itself was dubbed jingoism.
Jingoism

Lost Cause

This is ostensibly a critical review of Arta Moeini’s recent essay published at UnHerd: Is the West escalating the Ukraine war? Nevertheless, its purview extends far beyond Moeini’s isolated expression of the pervasive fallacies my critique addresses.

Moeini’s article emerges from the milieu of the past several weeks, during which time we have observed a pronounced rhetorical revolution in the popular western narratives regarding the NATO/Russia war in Ukraine.

“Lost cause” is in the air. Many who have privately known this to be the case for some time have finally been sufficiently emboldened to publicly embrace the obvious – albeit reluctantly, and often with a good measure of rationalization and lingering misinformation in tow.

To be clear, I found Moeini’s essay a worthwhile read; thought-provoking on multiple levels – although not always in the way I suspect he intended. And I more or less agree with the majority of his observations of matters as they currently stand.

But as the poet well-noted, “you don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.”

Nor does it require an aspiring think-tank geopolitical “expert” to inform one at this juncture that the gambit to use Ukraine as a kamikaze bomber to mortally wound Russia has failed abysmally in every fundamental geostrategic respect.

Indeed, it has backfired in multiple largely unforeseen and now irreversible ways.

More on that below.

Meanwhile, I will address those of the author’s arguments that fail principally due to his apparently obligatory compulsion to echo American exceptionalist orthodoxy.

Of course, Moeini lives and breathes in the stultifying atmosphere of the Washington Beltway ideological miasma. His career aspirations are no doubt compellingly influenced by his environment, and therefore it comes as little surprise that he would be so pliant to its domineering imperatives.

He imagines that he is crafting a critique of the shortcomings of what is sometimes called The Chicago School of geopolitical realism, typified by the works of John Mearsheimer. In reality he is merely finding fault with one set of logical fallacies while embracing its seemingly more attractive cousins:
To understand Western decision-making and the peculiar inter-alliance dynamics of Nato, we need a more radical realism that takes seriously the non-physical, psychological, and “ontological dimensions” of security — encompassing a state or an organisation’s need for overcoming uncertainty by establishing orderly narratives and identities about its sense of “self”.
The incoherence of a call for “radical realism” in order to address the “ontological dimensions of security” and “overcoming uncertainty by establishing orderly narratives and identities” clearly eludes our young author, focused as he apparently is on the geopolitical relevance of the “sense of self”.

That said, it is to be expected that a mind cultivated by the current generation of imperial academicians would be loath to question their catechisms, foremost of which is the conviction that the “indispensable nation” is the one sovereign worthy to define the parameters of a “rules-based international order” and, by virtue of its unimpeachable self-perception, conduct the planet to a glorious destiny.

Moeini continues:
In a recent study for the Institute for Peace & Diplomacy, which I co-authored, we investigated the structural reasons that drive Ukraine’s strategic calculus. We suggested that, as a “regional balancer”, Ukraine took a massive risk in defying the Russian redlines about Kyiv explicitly rejecting Nato overtures and stopping any military integration with the West. This was a maximalist gambit that presupposed Western military support and risked actively provoking Moscow to its own strategic disadvantage.
This is a distortion of what really happened in Ukraine over the course of the past quarter century.

The Ukraine

The inherently disharmonious nation-state currently assigned the toponym “Ukraine” on maps of Europe is incontrovertibly an artificial construction of relatively recent origin. The socio-political and cultural facts underlying this reality were ably exploited by the Germans in the Second World War when the Nazis successfully recruited large numbers of its western inhabitants (primarily from Galicia) to join them in a war of annihilation against the Poles, the Jews, and the more numerous and prosperous “Muscovites” who inhabited the agriculturally fertile and substantially industrialized regions of historical Novorossiya.

This was the polity within the geographic region known as the Ukraine that, beginning as early as the immediate aftermath of the war, was systematically cultivated by the Anglo-American western hegemon as a disruptive force to undermine Soviet power and influence in eastern Europe.

And in the aftermath of the fall of the Soviet Union which occasioned the rise of the global American empire, this was the polity that was methodically groomed to eventually become a disposable proxy for imperial designs which explicitly aspired to dismember Russia and despoil its nearly limitless natural resource treasures.

Any set of arguments aiming to dispute this interpretation of events is demonstrably erroneous, logically fallacious, and historically revisionist – but I will set aside that debate for another day.

My point for now is that Moeini’s characterization of what happened since 2014 as Ukraine exercising its own agency to effect a geopolitical gambit against Russia is a tortured misrepresentation of the facts.

The reality is that the ruling junta in Ukraine – raised to its principality by imperial intrigues – was cunningly seduced into believing it was uniquely capable of becoming the tip of the empire’s spear to slay, once and for all, the subhuman “Muscovites” who had long-dominated the left bank of the Dnieper River, Crimea, and the regions bordering the Black Sea.

Moeini comes close to acknowledging this reality – apparently without apprehending its necessary implications:
“Practically all of America’s security alliances today are asymmetrical arrangements between the United States and regional balancers — a class of smaller, more peripheral regional states seeking to balance against the dominant middle powers in their respective regions. As a great power, America possesses an inherent capacity to encroach on other regional security complexes (RSCs). In this context, it is reasonable for regional balancers to attempt to coax and exploit American power in the service of their particular regional security interests.”

Running with the Devil

What he is describing is a hegemon/vassal relationship wherein the empire defines, measures, and imposes both the quid and the quo of every transaction between the parties.

In the case of Ukraine, this pact with the devil entailed the empire pledging to equip and train a military force which would become the vanguard in a bold maneuver to not only reclaim Novorossiya and Crimea for Ukraine, but also to substantially attrit Russian military capability; humiliate and depose the despised Vladimir Putin, and then, as their just reward, to assume their supposedly rightful place among the great nations of Europe and the world.

As it were, the emissaries of empire took their chosen Ukrainian aspirants to the top of an exceedingly high mountain, showed them all the kingdoms of the world, and the glory thereof, and solemnly vowed, “All these things will we give unto you, if you will fall down and worship us.”

And, without hesitation, the credulous Ukrainians replied, “Hell yes! We’ll take that deal!”

Enticed by disingenuous flattery and the imagined deliciousness of the promised prize, they worshipfully knelt to kiss the ring, and willfully blinded themselves to the inescapable reality that their reach would exceed their grasp.

For, as Moeini further states:
Setting such a lofty objective, however, effectively meant that Kyiv could never succeed without active Nato intervention shifting the balance of power in its favour. By virtue of its decision, Ukraine, along with its closest partners in Poland and the Baltic nations, became the classic “trojan ally” — smaller countries whose desire for regional clout against the extant middle power (Russia) is predicated on their ability to persuade an external great power and its global military network (here, the US and, by extension, Nato) to step in militarily on their behalf.
In this paragraph we are greeted at the door by a glaring tautology, only to then be treated to the first unmistakable specimen of Moeini’s fundamental miscalculation – and yet not his, for it has been the fundamental miscalculation of the exceptionalist gospel since its genesis: our dutiful author characterizes Russia as a “middle power”.

Herein lies the key to the entire exceptionalist fallacy.

I will expand upon this thought further below.

The Immovable Object

Meanwhile, Moeini continues (emphasis added):
Ukraine’s future as a sovereign state would now hinge on its ability to successfully engineer an escalation.…
For it is in Kyiv’s interests to steer Nato into becoming more closely entangled in the war.
The essential premise of both phrases is false – preposterously so. If the author is not dissembling in stating them, then he is tragically disinformed as to the reality of events as they have transpired.

Ukraine is not a principal actor in this movie. They are playing the “cast of millions” part.

This is and always has been a power struggle between the current iteration of western empire and its favorite nemesis: Russia. That is the context in which it is being prosecuted, and defines the terms upon which it will be decided.

“Escalation” was always an essential parameter of the empire’s calculus. The dissolution and vassalization of continental Russia has never ceased to be the prime directive. The imperial suzerains simply failed to accurately perceive that the Russians possessed escalatory supremacy. They erroneously imagined themselves to be the irresistible force and dismissed the historical evidence that Russia is the immovable object.

That increasingly evident reality has now abruptly sobered the western masters of war and forced them to reassess the entire equation of the conflict.

Moeini continues:
… Ukraine cannot defeat Russia without Nato fighting on its side. The question now is whether the West should allow itself to be entrapped into that war and jeopardise the fate of the entire world in doing so.
What he apparently fails to comprehend is that the empire is alreadyentrapped – precariously suspended between the Scylla and Charybdis of a scorched-earth tantrum or a humiliating retreat that will forever shatter the myth of American military supremacy, and greatly accelerate the transition to the historical norm of a multipolar world.

And yet he persists:
In the materialist framing of security offered by most realists, there is little upside for America and western Europe, and certainly no genuine national or strategic interest, in getting dragged into what is essentially a regional war in Eastern Europe involving two different nationalistic states.
<sigh>

I am compelled to repeat, this is NOT “essentially a regional war in Eastern Europe involving two different nationalistic states.”

Ukraine is NOT a principal actor in this movie. They are playing the “cast of millions” part.

This is and always has been a power struggle between the current iteration of western empire and its favorite nemesis: Russia. That is the context in which it is being prosecuted, and defines the terms upon which it will be decided.

Nevertheless, in the succeeding paragraph Moeini manages to indirectly affirm this perspective – although he frames the issue once again in the mystifying naïveté of his “ontological” construct:
From an ontological standpoint, however, an Anglo-American foreign policy establishment that strongly “identifies” itself with US unipolarity has been heavily invested in maintaining the status quo, and preventing the formation of a new collective security architecture in Europe, which would be centred on Russia and Germany rather than the United States.
In other words, he frankly acknowledges that this war is, at its root, about the preservation of the unipolar status quo – or restated in terms I have employed for many months now: this war is an existential struggle between Russian sovereignty and American imperial continuity.

Before I elaborate on this point, I want to digress into a brief discussion of vocabulary.

Moeini repeatedly employs the term “ontological” in his paper. Ontologicalrefers to a metaphysical assessment of the nature and meaning of being. It relates to one’s sense of identity. It is abstract in the extreme, inherently subjective, and therefore susceptible to pronounced volatility.

Existential, on the other hand, is a term referring to one’s physical continuance in time and space. It is life reduced to its bare essence. Although it can be employed in an abstract sense, it is fundamentally concrete, and is instinctively perceived as an objective quality – especially when threatened with annihilation.

Returning again to Moeini’s framing of Anglo-American foreign policy within an ontological construct, I fully acknowledge the presumed prerogatives associated with the various vainglorious imperial narratives:

- “the shining city on a hill”

- “the indispensable nation”

- “spreading freedom and democracy”

- “champion of the oppressed”

- et cetera


The Calculated Façade of American Exceptionalism

Of course, all of these expressions are variations on the more ancient western theme of “the white man’s burden”. And all are fundamentally jingoistic at their root. More meaningfully, all are illusory qualities of the empire, whose unbridled imperial avarice and moral hypocrisy have always been insuperable stumbling blocks to its holier-than-thou pretensions.

In any case, as it relates to imperial foreign policy, I adamantly assert that these ontological pretensions have never been more than a calculated façade. The imperial masters do not hold genuine aspirations to spread righteousness and prosperity around the world. As with all declining empires that preceded this one, the imperial elite aspire to dominion as an end per se. It is the self-satisfaction of unquestioned primacy that is the ultimate wellspring of all their actions – at least insofar as the apparatus of tribute and plunder remains adequately intact.

Therefore, in the context of a “collective security architecture” in Europe, it is not the alleged threat of despotic Russian expansionism that has motivated imperial actions, but rather the thought that the Europeans themselves would agree to a mutually satisfactory multilateral security arrangement, and then firmly request that the Americans finally take all their military toys and go home.

Concerningly, it has become increasingly evident that the empire would rather rule over the ashes and rubble of Europe than permit its constituent nations to reclaim their sovereignty on their own terms, and by their own volition.
To reign is worth ambition though in hell:
Better to reign in hell, than serve in heaven.
Moeini correctly observes that the empire’s most acute concern in recent years had been the discernible advance of Russo-German reconciliation and economic collaboration. Going back over a century, this prospect has always been understood as the single greatest threat to Anglo-American dominance of the western world, and hence a development that must be arrested before it can ever gain momentum.

He then accurately characterizes the empire’s stratagem to nip Russo-German partnership in the bud:
… the US establishment has worked to destroy any possibility of a Berlin-Moscow axis forming by aligning itself with the Intermarium bloc of countries from the Baltic to the Black Sea, repeatedly opposing (and openly threatening) Nord Stream gas pipelines, and deliberately rebuffing Russian insistence on a neutral Ukraine.

The historical naïveté and impaired foresight of this imperial machination is a topic for another discussion. Suffice it for now to say it betrays an abject ignorance of the centuries-old frictions and volatile alignments of the disparate Slavic nations comprising the region in question.

As the often-prophetic Fyodor Dostoyevsky wrote during the 1877-1878 Russo-Turkish War which contested the southern portion of the Intermarium:
Between themselves, these lands will forever quarrel, forever envy each other, and intrigue against each other.
In any event, the empire successfully enticed most of the Intermarium to seek its identity with the rest of the western European vassals – with Poland, Ukraine, and the Baltic chihuahuas being most in thrall to the imagined bonanza.

While seemingly blind to the inevitable calamity for the Kiev regime, Moeini obliquely touches upon the cynical reality of how the empire designed to exploit Ukraine to further its own hegemonic goals:
In relation to Ukraine, the initial objective for an ideological Western alliance that is skewed toward “shared values”, as Nato has become with the dissolution of the USSR, was to turn that country into a Western albatross for Russia, to bog down Moscow in an extended quagmire to weaken its regional power and influence, and even to encourage regime change in the Kremlin.
Once again, Moeini inadvertently reveals his bias towards the delusions of western policy makers in relation to their ill-conceived Mother of All Proxy Armies gambit in Ukraine. But rather than crafting anew a response to this reference to the “best-laid plans” of the not-quite-geniuses in the Pentagon, Whitehall, Langley, and Foggy Bottom, I will cite a few paragraphs from my maiden commentary on this war:
I initially believed NATO military leaders must have had a sober view, far in advance, that their half-million-strong, well-armed, trained-to-NATO-standards Ukrainian proxy army had almost no chance of prevailing on the field of battle against Russia.
But watching drone video of Ukrainian fortifications has convinced me the US military brain trust effectively disdained the Russian military, and its commanders, in the course of their eight-year-long preparation of the eastern Ukrainian battlefield.
Their vanity persuaded them the Russians would mindlessly smash themselves to pieces against an entrenched well-armed force.
Indeed, they were so confident of the genius of their plan that they persuasively encouraged many hundreds of now-killed or captured NATO veterans to “share in the glory” of humiliating the Russians and bringing down the Putin regime once and for all.
They deluded themselves into believing the Russians lacked strategic and logistical acumen, a sufficiently well-trained force, and – arguably the biggest miscalculation of all – sufficient stockpiles of ammo to conduct a protracted high-intensity conflict.
In short, I have come to believe US/NATO commanders actually persuaded themselves that this “Mother of All Proxy Armies” had an excellent chance to soundly whip the Russians in a battle situated in their own back yard.
In other words, they disregarded centuries of European history that they somehow convinced themselves had no relevance to their 21st century aspirations to defeat Russia militarily and take a great spoil of its resources.

From Napoleon to Hitler to the amorphous contemporary entity I have dubbed the Empire At All Costs cult, the would-be imperial overlords have fantasized a Russia that is intellectually, organizationally, culturally, and – most consequentially – militarily inferior to its enlightened western cousins. And in every instance it has been proven to be a catastrophic miscalculation.

And yet here we are again.

<sigh>

The Inexplicably Unforeseen Return of Industrial Warfare

Moeini then proceeds to muse tendentiously over the possibilities of the empire somehow finding a way to snatch victory from the inexorable jaws of defeat.

First he imagines that continued deliveries of western weapons to Ukraine can freeze the conflict in a state of attritional stalemate from which some fashion of geopolitical victory can be forged. Apparently he is among those bewitched by the pervasive myths of two-hundred thousand Russian dead and thousands of units of destroyed armor, vehicles, and artillery – not to mention an allegedly impotent and all-but-invisible Russian Air Force whose radically diminished fleet of antiquated Soviet-era aircraft is barely combat capable; far beneath the supposedly lofty standards of the legendary western air armadas.

He, like so many in the overcrowded ranks of ostensibly “prudent and measured” western “experts”, seems to envisage rank upon rank of demoralized, under-trained, under-equipped, under-clothed, under-fed Russian conscripts trembling in frigid terror that yet another in a fictionally inexhaustible series of fearsome HIMARS strikes is about to blast them and their emaciated comrades to smithereens.

In a final leap of ludicrousness, he moots the consequences of even further western escalation in the form of longer-range missiles and F-16s which just might permit the Ukrainians to drive the depleted Russian forces out of the Donbass, and even eventually deliver Crimea from its Russian occupiers.

Consistent with the ontological imperatives of a perspective rooted in unquestionable imperial rightness and might, he cannot conceive that direct NATO intervention could result in catastrophic defeat at the hands of the “obviously inferior” Russian conventional military, but only finds himself capable of fretting over the possibility that, for Russia, the prospect of conventional military humiliation:
… would dramatically increase the likelihood of a nuclear event, given how Moscow regards protecting its strategic stronghold in the Black Sea as an existential imperative.
There are, as I have noted above and elsewhere, true existential imperatives at work in this conflict – for both Russia and the empire. But the essential difference is that Russia entered into this conflict cognizant of that reality, and – contrary to the misinformed delusions of almost everyone in the west – the Russians were much better prepared to prosecute a protracted conventional conflict than all of the atrophied NATO militariescombined.

And now, after a full year of the most high-intensity European war since 1945, the Russian economy is effectively on a war-footing. Latent Soviet-era armaments factories have been running round-the-clock shifts for months already, producing every type of weaponry the prior year of combat has proven to be most effective, and in quantities western military planners can only dream of.

Russian war-time production levels coupled with its now nearly mature half-million-strong mobilization of reservists — virtually all of them as yet uncommitted on the battlefield — projects the tableau of a Russian militarysubstantially more potent than it was just one year ago, and growing stronger with each passing month. Anyone who continues to believe otherwise has simply been comprehensively propagandized by the pervasive western intel psyop that has operated on the cynical principle that:
“If you can’t win a real war, win an imaginary one.”
That works satisfactorily well so long as the narrative can be persuasively perpetuated. But imaginary troops, equipment, and ammunition do not win real wars.

Meanwhile, anything that could have been characterized as “surplus” NATO stores is all but exhausted. Oh, to be sure, there have been recent announcements of new mountains of NATO armaments to be shipped to Ukraine – hundreds of incomparable western main battle tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, mobile artillery platforms, and a long list of other supposedly war-winning sundries.

The Arsenal of Democracy is just beginning to flex its muscles!

Or so the story goes.

However, upon closer examination, the “mountain” of awesome western stuff is revealed to be little more than a modest molehill of mostly antiquated equipment, along with woefully deficient quantities of additional ammunition.

To make matters worse, in the ensuing weeks, what was initially touted as hundreds of main battle tanks has become only a few dozen, most of them long out-of-service and requiring extensive repair to render them combat capable.

The “Arsenal of Democracy” is not a massive muscle waiting to be flexed in the eyes of an easily shocked and awed global public. It is a mirage.

As I described the situation in a succinct commentary published three weeks ago:
The US military is not built nor equipped for protracted high-intensity conflict. Nor can it supply a depleted proxy army with the means to prosecute a protracted high-intensity conflict.
The incontrovertible reality is that the US and its NATO allies are presently incapable of supplying the massive material demands of modern industrial warfare, as Lieutenant Colonel (Ret.) Alex Vershinin articulated so well in this essential June 2022 analysis: The Return of Industrial Warfare.
And yet the public discussion of potential war always includes convinced voices proclaiming that, just like in the Second World War, US industry could very rapidly ramp up to produce armaments of surpassing quality, and in overwhelming quantities.
This titillates the biases of American exceptionalists in general, and is a particularly seductive fantasy of the #EmpireAtAllCosts cult drones propagandizing for filthy lucre at the countless armaments-industry-funded “think tanks” in Washington and London.
But the notion that the rapidly declining empire can resurrect the Arsenal of Democracy band for one final farewell tour is a singularly delusional vanity.
You see, for all its massive plunder of the public purse, the US armaments industry is effectively a modestly scaled high-end boutique.

Building the Perfect Beast

Even more significantly, in a development I and many others have predicted for several years now – in the face of almost universal ridicule, I might add – the empire’s seemingly endless string of hubris-driven blunders has rapidly accelerated the formation of what is quite arguably the single most potent military / economic / geostrategic alliance seen in modern times: the tripartite axis of Russia, China, and Iran.

In its misguided and short-sighted gambit to thwart the long-dreaded Russo-German rapprochement — incomprehensibly punctuated by the late September 2022 sabotage of the Nordstream gas pipelines — the empire has astoundingly managed to jump from the frying pan of a regional proxy war against Russia into the fire of a global conflict all three of its steadily strengthening adversaries now view as existential.

In my considered opinion, this is almost certainly the single most inexplicable and portentous series of geopolitical blunders in recorded history.

For the time being, the fighting will remain confined to Ukraine. But the entire complexion of this war has been irreversibly altered.

Ontological Insecurity Goes to War

Moeini then proceeds to wax tendentiously verbose about the compulsions of “ontological insecurity” under which the empire and its heretofore thoroughly indoctrinated vassals are now laboring on account of Russia having acted in direct contravention of the dictates of the “rules-based international order”.

He adopts an almost-Hofferesque “true believer” affectation as he characterizes America as an “ideological great power”. In a Manichaean rapture, he implicitly asserts that the greatness of the current hegemonic order is a direct byproduct of the “humanitarianism and democratism” he imagines to be at its core.

He bemoans his conviction that the “compulsion toward escalation” derives directly from an unforgivably aggressive Russia that has disrupted the “unified sense of order and continuity in the world.”

He then concludes with this remarkable rhetorical flourish:
As we begin the second year of the war, it has finally dawned on many in Washington that the likely outcome of this tragedy is stalemate: “We will continue to try to impress upon [the Ukrainian leadership] that we can’t do anything and everything forever,” one senior Biden administration official said this week. For all the talk of Ukrainian agency, that agency depends entirely on Nato’s commitment to continue to support Kyiv’s war effort indefinitely. Such a maximalist desire for “complete victory” is not only highly attritional and suggestive of yet another endless war, but it is also reckless; its very success could trigger a nuclear holocaust.
Moscow has already paid a high price for its transgressions in Ukraine. To prolong the war at this point in an ideological quest for total victory is both strategically and morally questionable. For many liberal internationalists in the West, the clamour for a “just peace” that is sufficiently punishing to Russia suggests little more than a thinly-veiled desire to impose a Carthaginian peace on Moscow. The West has indeed wounded Russia; now it must decide if it wants to let this wound fester and conflagrate the entire world. For unless Moscow is provided with a reasonable off-ramp that recognises Russia’s status as a regional power with its own existential imperatives of strategic and ontological security, that is the precipice towards which we are heading.
It is a breathtaking encapsulation of the analytical transgressions of this archetypal expression of American imperial exceptionalism.

I shall respond to the most noteworthy among them:

The “likely outcome” of this war is not “stalemate”. Rather, it is the all-but-certain scenario of Russia effectively annihilating the hybrid NATO/Ukrainian military force clinging to existence along the current line of contact, and then dictating new borders consistent with Russia’sconception of satisfactory “strategic depth”.

The notion that the US/NATO can “continue to support Kyiv’s war effort indefinitely” is a delusional conceit. As I have written above and elsewhere:

The US military is not built nor equipped for protracted high-intensity conflict. Nor can it supply a depleted proxy army with the means to prosecute a protracted high-intensity conflict.

Escalating the degree of US intervention in this war is not reckless because it risks backing the Russians into a corner from which they will feel compelled to use nuclear weapons, but rather because, in the face of catastrophic NATO losses on the ground and in the air of a conventional conflict, the United States government could very well find itself so desperately humiliated that it will yield to the enticings of the Empire At All Costs cult to sally forth boldly into the nuclear abyss.

The Persistent Myth of Russian Weakness

Moeini imagines that “Moscow has already paid a high price for its transgressions in Ukraine.”

To be sure, Russia has suffered losses in this war. Aggregating all the major components of the Russian military effort so far (Russian regulars, Donbass militia, Wagner PMC, and Chechen volunteer regiments), the Russians have very conceivably incurred as many as twenty-five thousand killed, and twice that wounded.

On the other side of the balance, it is now a near-certainty that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have suffered over two-hundred thousand killed, and at least twice that many irrecoverably wounded.

It is Ukraine that has paid a high price for the transgressions of the empire in its futile attempt to mortally wound Russia!

Utilizing a resolute “economy of force” strategy for an entire year — on both the offensive and the defensive — the Russians have exacted the most disproportionate casualty ratio of any major war in modern times.

Contrary to the propaganda-driven hallucinations of the overwhelming majority of western military analysts — as well as a surprisingly large number of Russian critics of Putin, the Kremlin, and the Russian Ministry of Defense — I remain thoroughly persuaded that future historians and war college professors will acclaim the past year of Russian military operations as the most impressive large-scale campaign of urban combat ever witnessed. It will be admiringly studied for centuries to come.

Meanwhile, as many as a half-million Russian combat effectives remain uncommitted in the theater — a mixture of battle veterans and mobilized reserves. They have been abundantly equipped with the finest armor, vehicles, and firepower yet fielded on the Russian side in this war.

Over 700 fixed-wing and rotary aircraft are dispersed within striking distance of the front.

Russian armaments production has proven all the imperial think-tank naysayers wrong. They have mobilized their latent but massive manufacturing capacity to such an impressive extent that it would take the west at least five years, and more likely a decade, to “catch up”.

The unadorned truth of the matter is that the US/NATO simply cannot and most assuredly will not win this war.


The Moment of Greatest Danger

Moeini concludes his treatise by musing that “unless Moscow is provided with a reasonable off-ramp that recognises Russia’s status as a regional power with its own existential imperatives of strategic and ontological security”, the world stands on the brink of a nuclear holocaust.

He correctly fears a nuclear calamity, but misattributes the source of the risk.

It is the empire that desperately needs an off-ramp at this point. The imperial potentates imagined up for themselves a world in which they commanded the sole “great power” on the planet. In casually dismissing the relative strength of the civilizational powers whom they have converted into mortal foes — Russia, China, and Persia — they have now consigned western civilization to an ontological and existential crisis of their own creation.

Tip Jar



To: THE ANT who wrote (199558)6/16/2023 8:41:53 PM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 217764
 
Re this below article you cited, am thinking Brazil is very well placed

tabletmag.com

On Yom Ha’atzmaut, Israeli Independence Day: Americans, the Almost-Chosen People

When we speak of culture in general, we typically think of fixed roots in the form of memory, custom, and habit. Yet the salient characteristic of the American character is restlessness, as Tocqueville observed. We are journeyers rather than settlers. We are risk-takers, entrepreneurs, and innovators. How then should we think about our culture?

One approach is to steer clear of the problem and define America as a “propositional nation,” as John Courtney Murray contended. A proposition is something one assents to rationally. Culture, by contrast, is the context in which we perceive things, which we receive from our ancestors and pass down to our descendants. It is pre-rational, instinctive rather than intellectual, a manifestation of who we are rather than what we think. It is the way in which we cannot help but understand the world.

It is one thing to assert that a proposition is true and quite another thing to pledge one’s life, fortune, and sacred honor. The American Revolution is in some ways the strangest conflict in history: There is no other example of prosperous, property-owning people who were free to publish their thoughts and practice their religion taking up arms against the world’s most powerful empire. Four generations later, half a million Northerners died to end slavery.

If America is merely a propositional nation, moreover, then this proposition can be taught to any other nation, like a proof in logic. From Woodrow Wilson to George W. Bush, our attempts to instruct the rest of the world in the American proposition have had baleful consequences, and it behooves us to consider the side of being American that cannot be learned but rather must be lived—what we call culture.

American culture is so singular that the general concept of culture we inherit from the Old World does not suffice to cover it. Critic Russell Kirk refers us to T.S. Eliot, who wrote:

[T]he term culture … includes all the characteristic activities and interests of a people: Derby Day, Henley Regatta, Cowes, the 12th of August, a cup final, the dog races, the pin table, the dart board, Wensleydale cheese, boiled cabbage cut into sections, beetroot in vinegar, 19th century Gothic churches, and the music of Elgar.

These are the sorts of quaint things American tourists used to look for in England, that is, when England still had them. If we Americans had things like that, we would put them in a theme park. I do not mean to deprecate Eliot. His is the common-sense way to think about culture, and to deviate from it takes us into deep water. Nonetheless, Eliot’s definition does not well suit the American example.

For Martin Heidegger, our Being-in-the-World, or Dasein, always occupies a particular space in a particular temporality. “Heritage” for Heidegger refers back to something like an autochthonous peasant archetype. In his later years Heidegger withdrew to a cabin in the Black Forest to write dithyrambs to the German Heimat endangered by the encroachment of technology. Americans do not stay in any one place long enough to accrete the Bodenständigkeit, or rootedness, that Heidegger sought at the core of our Being. No wonder Heidegger hated America.

Recently Alexander Gauland, the deputy chair of the ultra-right Allianz für Deutschland, called Americans “a people thrown together by chance without an authentic culture.” It is true that we do not have a high culture to compare to Europe’s, for all the good that did them. We cannot claim a national poet with the stature of a Dante, Shakespeare, or Goethe. Not until the 1920s did we discover Moby-Dick when critics in search of an American classic rescued Melville’s work from 70 years of obscurity. We have Walt Whitman, the butt of innumerable parodies, and Hemingway, the subject of a famous imitation contest.

America nonetheless has a distinct national culture, with a national epic, a national poem, and a national place.

It is instructive to start in medias res, with the most original and influential work of American fiction, Mark Twain’s Huckleberry Finn, whence “all modern American literature comes,” as Hemingway said. Its flaws shed light on our problem as much as do its virtues. Twain devised the most arresting image in American literature: the runaway boy Huck and the escaped slave Jim, fragile and free on the great river. The evocative opening of the novel, though, eventually fades into a disappointing sequel to Tom Sawyer. “The book ends so lamely,” Harold Bloom rightly observes. Nonetheless, we forgive Mark Twain his sin of literary construction and love the work. Our critics, I think, misunderstand why. Lionel Trilling thinks Huck is a “servant of the river-god,” while Bloom cannot decide whether Huck is a “wholly secular being” or an “American Orphic.” This seems far-fetched. What fascinates us in Huckleberry Finn is not the plot but the image of the journey itself. Twain gives us the most poignant picture of a journey ever imagined by an American: the vulnerability of the two fugitives against the backdrop of the great current that bisects the American heartland.

Culture must be commonplace. By the turn of the 20th century, the journey had become a cliché in American culture, from Frederick Jackson Turner’s essay on the frontier to Stephen Vincent Benét’s 1943 epic poem “Western Star” with its opening motto, “Americans are always on the move.” Hollywood made migration to the West a metaphor of redemption, as in John Ford’s 1939 film Stagecoach. The American journey differs from journeys of earlier literature. It is not the journey of Joseph Campbell’s hero. The heroes of past fiction travel in order to come home, enlightened in the case of Gilgamesh, honored in the case of Odysseus, and lucid in the case of Don Quixote. In picaresque fiction from Lazarillo de Tormes to Simplicius Simplicissimus, the protagonist is a foil for the people and situations he encounters. The American journey, by contrast, is an existential event in the life of the traveler. It is not the destination but the journey that matters, and it is a journey that by its nature cannot reach its destination. Huckleberry Finn resembles picaresque fiction only superficially. Twain’s novel and American narrative prose in general have even less resemblance to the European Bildungsroman. The purpose of the journey is not the perfection of the personality but redemption. Wilhelm Meister is as alien to the Mississippi as Huck is to the Elbe.

America’s journey is the Christian pilgrimage that cannot end with an earthly goal. Huckleberry Finn thus is an exemplar of Christian literature as much as The Pilgrim’s Progress is. The journey is motivated not by the destination but by the restlessness of the pilgrim. There is only one possible conclusion to Huck’s adventure: His journey must resume, as he announces in the book’s last line: “But I reckon I got to light out for the Territory ahead of the rest, because Aunt Sally she’s going to adopt me and sivilize me, and I can’t stand it. I been there before.”

I began with Twain rather than with John Winthrop—the new mission in the Wilderness of a new Israel—because Winthrop’s vision of a new Mission in the Wilderness too easily may be reduced to a proposition, a theological maxim unrelated to American life. For Winthrop and the Pilgrim Fathers, the journey to a new Promised Land is existential rather than ideological.

Augustine was a decisive influence on the Pilgrim Fathers; as Perry Miller wrote, Augustine “exerted the greatest single influence upon Puritan thought next to that of the Bible itself, in reality a greater one than did John Calvin.” But America is Augustinian in a sense deeper than doctrine. Augustine began his Confessions, “You have made us for yourself, and our hearts are restless until we come to you.” The journey is the iconic motive of American culture because it fulfills the Augustinian restlessness of the American character. The pilgrimage of the Separatists who founded the Massachusetts Bay Colony repeats itself throughout American history. I do not mean to diminish the importance of Westward migration, whose memory is stamped on the American character. The American journey nonetheless is more metaphysical than physical.

Not merely the journey as such but a radically different kind of journey pervades American fiction, because America is a radically different kind of nation: It is uniquely Christian and peculiarly Protestant in character. What Heidegger calls “heritage” and Eliot calls “tradition,” whose origins lurk in the mists of time, have a different meaning in America. America’s Dasein has its “place,” but it is a different sort of place than Heidegger could have imagined: America’s “place” is Canaan. But it is the Canaan of Christian belief rather than the actual Israel of Jewish practice. It is always a vanishing point in the distance.

That is how the great German-Jewish theologian Franz Rosenzweig understood Christianity. It is a never-ending journey, as he put it, an “eternal path.”

It is Christianity that has made the present into an epoch. The past is now simply the time before Christ’s birth. …Time has become a single path, but a path whose beginning and end lie beyond time and therefore an eternal path. By contrast, on those paths that lead from one time to another time, one only sees another section of the road. Because beginning and end are equally near on the eternal path, and equally displaced just as is time itself, because every point is a midpoint.

A journey may not have an end, but it must have a beginning. The gentile nations have no beginning, or else a beginning so clouded in myth that they think of themselves as autochthonous sons of the soil. Not so the Jews, whose national life begins at the Exodus with the eruption of God into history. And not so “the tribe of Christians,” whose life as a new People of God begins with what Christians regard as a new Exodus, the Christ event. The Catholic theologian Henri de Lubac wrote:

To St. Paul the Church is the People of the New Covenant. Israel according to the Spirit takes the place of Israel according to the flesh; but it is not a collection of many individuals, it is still a nation albeit recruited now from the ends of the earth, “the tribe of Christians,” says Eusebius, for instance, “the race of those who honor God.”

But where on earth do we encounter this “tribe of Christians”? The peoples of Europe came to the Church under their national banners by the order of their monarchs. As Rosenzweig observed, the Europeans who adhered to Christendom as tribes rather than as individuals never forswore their love for their own ethnicity. They longed for eternal life in their own gentile skin as much they did for the Kingdom of God promised by Christianity. From the Wars of Religion of the 16th and 17th centuries to the world wars of the 20th, the nations of the old world conflated national self-aggrandizement with the Election of Israel and fought each other to mutual ruin.

Heidegger insisted that the heritage we learn by repetition must come from our primal origins. But in America, by contrast, Christian memory created itself. It is the most extreme example of what the politically correct now call “cultural appropriation,” the appropriation of the history of Israel as America’s heritage. The Mission in the Wilderness was prelude to a new covenant and a new revelation. That is the foundation of our national culture, what Lincoln called “the mystic chords of memory, stretching from every battle-field, and patriot grave, to every living heart and hearthstone.”

The peoples of the Old World, by contrast, recall a time before Christianity, when their woods and fields still were infested with the minor gods of the pagan world. That is Max Weber’s “enchanted world,” teeming with magical creature, remnants of the old folk-religions that survived the advent of Christianity. It is a world that knows only archetypes, but no characters. The Old World cultures are fixed in the past; their time is “once upon a time,” the amorphous time of legend. A day, a year and a life are indistinguishable: A traveler chances into a feast at an enchanted castle, and the seven days of his sojourn turn out to be seven years. Washington Irving repurposed the ancient tale: with an ironic masterstroke, he put Rip van Winkle to sleep in the Old World of legend and woke him up in the new time of the American Revolution. With this story, our first national writer declared independence from the literary sources of the Old World, and banished the enchanted world with the clear light of the new era.

The peoples of the world, Rosenzweig said, also “foresee a time when their land with its rivers and mountains still lies under heaven as it does today, but other people dwell there; when their language is entombed in books, and their laws and customers have lost their living power.” That is why “the love of the peoples for their own ethnicity is sweet and pregnant with the presentiment of death.” The popular culture of the Old World is suffused with nostalgia and shadowed by this presentiment. Where the European protagonist finds tragedy, the American resolves to light out for the new territory. Americans never have written good tragedies. Eugene O’Neill tried to, but he instead produced plays with the inner structure of a situation comedy only with sad endings. The Iceman Cometh is Cheers with murder and suicide, and A Long Day’s Journey Into Night is Leave It to Beaver with dope addiction and tuberculosis instead of a baseball through a neighbor’s window.

America has no ethnicity and therefore has no fear of extinction. We look forward to the journey rather than backward to our roots. Our journey is the Christian journey to the Promised Land, which is bound up with the journey to America: the Pilgrims’ journey to New England, the flight of slaves to the free North, the westward migration of the landless.

In the African American spiritual, the first original American art form, the journey to Canaan is an all-pervasive subject. The spiritual draws on Low Church hymns from the British Isles, to be sure. I first heard the following lines interjected among the verses of the spiritual “Joshua Fought the Battle of Jericho,” although their origin is British and much older; they first appear in print in a Methodist hymnal printed in the Midlands in 1809.

Good morning, brother traveler,
Pray tell to me your name:
What country you are traveling to;
Likewise from whence you came?
My name it is Bold Pilgrim
To Canaan I am bound,
I’m from the howling wilderness
And the enchanted ground.

Radical Protestantism leads the pilgrim from the “howling wilderness” and the “enchanted ground” of the Old World and leads him to the Canaan of the spirit. The question is addressed to, and answered by, the individual pilgrim. The Jew is born into the people of Israel; the Christian seeks adoption into the Israel of the Spirit. American Christianity retains the radical individualism of its Protestant forebears, who chose as individuals to become Americans. We have become Americans by adoption, and we have adopted the history of Israel as our national common memory. A profound parallelism is involved. The biblical Election of Israel was not a prize that God awarded to an unlikely nation of shepherds, but rather the outcome of Israel’s free choice to accept the Torah and the responsibility of election. It is our free choice to become Americans that is the cornerstone of our culture.

In Virginia, Maryland, and the Carolinas, the colonial state church was Anglican, to be sure, but New England Puritans and Pennsylvania Quakers gave America its radical Protestant character. There were also 300,000 German immigrants who arrived before 1790, most of them from Protestant communities shattered by the Thirty Years War, as well as 100,000 Dutch. The Protestantism of the Puritan Fathers and the Pennsylvania settlers, and the Presbyterianism and Methodism of the First and Second Great Awakenings, was enthusiastic, apocalyptic, and individualistic. Circumstances made it so. The pilgrims, as William Bradford attested, left Holland in 1620 two years after the outbreak of the Thirty Years War, in the well-founded fear of an imminent Spanish invasion. This great civil war within Christendom, in which Spain and France fought for dominance over the Christian world, prompted the founding of America. The direct experience of revelation from the Bible was its decisive religious act and its primary spiritual exercise reliving the history of Israel through conversion and baptism. It is apocalyptic, because the pilgrimage of this world never attains its goal, and redemption remains a point of perspective in the distance.

Because American Christians understand their lives as pilgrimage, they cling all the more avidly to the roadmap that has been given them for this pilgrimage. And this roadmap is the history of Israel. America’s national epic is the Hebrew Bible, in the King James translation. Because the inner life of the American Christian recapitulates the history of Israel, American Christianity is instinctively philo-Semitic. By contrast, the Old World Christianity of T.S. Eliot tends toward suspicion, if not outright hatred, of actual Jews.

Because American culture and American identity arise from the Christian imagination rather than the tactile and auditory traditions, American culture is enthusiastic and apocalyptic rather than settled and stable. It dwells not in the routine of quotidian life but in memory and hope. It is protean like American Christianity itself, which surges in Great Awakenings, recedes, lies dormant, and arises again—in the Presbyterianism of the First Great Awakening and the Baptists and Methodists of the Second Great Awakening. It is a common observation, and I think a correct one, that the American Revolution arose from the first awakening and the Civil War from the second.

If America is an almost chosen people, Lincoln was almost our national poet. When he spoke of a “new nation conceived in liberty” at the Gettysburg battlefield in 1863, he paraphrased the father of English Protestantism, John Wycliffe, who introduced his Bible translation with these words: “This Bible is for the government of the people, for the people and by the people.”

We have our national epic, and from that national epic comes our national poem, adapted from the apocalyptic vision of Isaiah 63, which asks: “Who is this that cometh from Edom, with dyed garments? Wherefore art thou red in thine apparel, and thy garments like him that treadeth in the winevat? I have trodden the winepress alone; and of the people there was none with me: for I will tread them in mine anger, and trample them in my fury; and their blood shall be sprinkled upon my garments, and I will stain all my raiment. For the day of vengeance is in mine heart, and the year of my redeemed is come.”

Mine eyes have seen the glory of the coming of the Lord.
He is trampling out the vintage where the grapes of wrath are stored.
He hath loosed the fateful lightning of his terrible swift sword …

The evangelical historian Mark Noll remarks that Lincoln diverges from the theologians of his day, who “found it easy to equate America’s moral government of God with Christianity itself.” Noll adds, “Their tragedy … was to rest content with a God defined by the American conventions God’s own loyal servants had exploited so well.” There is no explaining Lincoln in terms of prevailing ideology; we understand him better as the bearer of our culture. His celebrated statement that God held both sides in the Civil War to strict account for their transgressions echoes John Winthrop’s warning to the fledgling Plymouth Bay Colony that God would hold America to stricter account “because he would sanctify those who come near him.”

Americans chiseled the text of the Second Inaugural address onto Lincoln’s memorial on the National Mall: “If we shall suppose that American slavery is one of those offenses which, in the providence of God, must needs come, but which, having continued through His appointed time, He now wills to remove, and that He gives to both North and South this terrible war as the woe due to those by whom the offense came, shall we discern therein any departure from those divine attributes which the believers in a living God always ascribe to Him?”

Lincoln’s Calvinism weakened with the Civil War: Americans decided that they would rather not have a God who demanded sacrifice from them on this scale—10 percent of military-age Northern men and 30 percent of military-age Southern men. They did not want to be a Chosen People held accountable for their transgressions. They wanted instead a reticent God who withheld his wrath while they set out to make the world amenable to their own purposes. The New England elite went to war as convinced Abolitionists in service of Isaiah’s God of vengeance and redemption, singing, “Be swift my soul to welcome Him, be jubilant my feet.” As Louis Menand observes, they came back pragmatists, convinced that no idea could be so righteous or so certain as to merit the terrible sacrifices of their generation.

In place of the demanding God of the “Battle Hymn,” Americans got the avuncular God of Social Gospel and Wilsonian “Idealism.” The conceit that social engineering can remake the world according to our preferences became the reigning idea of mainline Protestantism. It implies that there is nothing really exceptional about America. From this muddy well came the naïve universalism of Jimmy Carter and the Wilsonian optimism of George W. Bush.

American culture persists nonetheless. The great wave of migration to the West ended more than a century ago, but the restlessness remains. Americans will always seek frontiers to conquer. That is why we are a nation of entrepreneurs, tinkerers, experimenters, and innovators. It is possible to be a European conservative and consider technology a threat to culture, as did Tolkien, that most Catholic of 20th-century writers. American conservatives embrace entrepreneurship and technological innovation. Edmund S. Phelps, the 2006 Nobel Laureate in economics, argues convincingly that the moral foundation of the free enterprise system is the human impulse to innovate:

I personally hold that the classical spirit of challenge and self-discovery is a fundamental human trait. By showing how the risk-taking activity of individuals contributes to social benefits, economics helps societies to accommodate what Augustine called our “restlessness of heart.” This is the better part of our human nature. Societies that suppress this restlessness stagnate and die. The issue of morality in economics is neither the fairness of income distribution nor the stability of financial systems. It is how human institutions can be shaped to correspond to human nature—to man’s nature as an innovator.

Phelps’ characterization is true of Homo Americanus. Whether it is true of other cultures is debatable. In 2009, 24 employees of France Telecom killed themselves and another 13 tried to, after the government monopoly put them in different jobs. They were not in financial distress. They simply couldn’t bear the insecurity. One can’t imagine this in America. Working for the telephone company is something we abide if we must, not something to which we aspire. The France Telecom suicides do not prove that Frenchmen always are averse to risk; it was Napoleon, after all, who boasted that his private soldiers carried a field marshal’s baton in their backpacks. But Europe’s past experience of risk-taking is bound up with the rapacity of war, rather than pioneering and entrepreneurship, and it has not been altogether satisfactory.

American culture eschews timidity and celebrates the disruptive outsider. When innovation is grounded in Judeo-Christian ethics, the Augustinian restlessness of American culture serves a profound moral purpose. But there is also a dark side to the radical individualism bequeathed to us by our Protestant forebears. At its best American Protestantism is antinomian, prone to sectarianism, and vulnerable to the hucksters like Sinclair Lewis’ Elmer Gantry. At its worst, the radical individualist can turn into a sociopath. We lack natural defenses against the predatory innovator.

That is the premise of America’s most original contributions to narrative prose, the hard-boiled detective story and the Western tale of vengeance. In the novels of Agatha Christie or Dorothy Sayers, the English detective corrects a temporary disturbance in the natural order of things. By contrast, evil runs out of control in the American detective novel and must be purged with blood. Dashiell Hammett’s Red Harvest invented the genre. A nameless detective comes to a Montana mining town where the local tycoon had allied with gangsters to crush radical labor agitation. Everyone is corrupt: Capitalists and Communists, leading citizens and low-life gangsters simmer in the same pot of brimstone. Hammett’s Continental Op provokes a gang war that kills off the entire cast of characters. This is not tragedy, but black comedy; André Malraux accordingly praised Red Harvestas “Grand Guignol.”

The American journey is as central to Hammett’s story as it is to Mark Twain’s. At the apex of the slaughter, the nameless detective has a dream:

“I walked … half the streets in the United States, Gay Street and Mount Royal Avenue in Baltimore, Colfax Avenue in Baltimore, Aetna Road and St Clair Avenue in Cleveland, McKinney Avenue in Dallas, Lemartine and Cornell and Amory Streets in Boston, Berry Boulevard in Louisville, Lexington Avenue in New York, until I came to Victoria Street in Jacksonville … ”

Between Mark Twain and Dashiell Hammett, the American journey turns from pilgrimage to nightmare. Only an outsider, an exterminating angel, can purge the Satanic City. That is a side of American culture that makes us cringe. Hollywood has pillaged Hammett’s plots without ever quite depicting his exterminating angel on the screen. We are more comfortable with the Western avenger who kills the outlaws and rides into the sunset. But the Western hero is merely a knight errant with six-guns; Hammett’s Continental Op is a real American.

What is the future of American culture? The good news is that we still are able to ask the question. In the case of the traditional cultures of the Old World, we already know the sad answer. The hope of European conservatives as diverse as Eliot, Heidegger, and Tolkien has been disappointed. Europe no longer cares enough about its own future to produce a new generation. The European nations where traditional society was strongest until the 1960s—Spain, Italy, Ireland, and Poland—have suffered the fastest decline in fertility. European culture will live on wraith-like in the museum and the concert hall, but it already has lost its living power. American culture is hardier. Its roots lie not in places and habits, but in the restlessness of our hearts. It lacks consistency and continuity but shows itself in bursts of enthusiasm followed by periods of torpor.

Without faith, American culture becomes a parody of itself. There is no secular substitute, no “civic religion,” no next-best-thing. The condition of being American is a leap of faith. Faith enables a new nation to create its own roots by an act of adoption; without faith, we are deracinated.

The dark side of American culture, meanwhile, has grown darker. We have lost faith in eternal life and instead are fascinated by living death. Our most-watched TV series depicts a zombie apocalypse whose characters are unmistakably American: Even in a nightmare world they evince the initiative and grit that have always informed our national character. The zombie apocalypse is another incarnation of the American journey, to be sure, but one in which God is absent and satanic forces run wild. That is a disturbing evolution in American culture. For the first time in our history, we have raised up a pseudo-religion that preserves our old restlessness and awe of mortality, but without the Christian hope of redemption.

We have had dark days before. The Israel that dwells in America’s heart may return from exile again, and when we least expect it. From our nadir of the 1850s, no one could have predicted the appearance of a Lincoln—not even Lincoln himself, who underwent a religious conversion while in the White House.

It was only 36 years ago that President Jimmy Carter qualified America’s condition as “paralysis and stagnation and drift.” The dollar was crashing after a decade of stagflation, Soviet aggression was at its peak, and the world’s elites thought that America would lose the Cold War. But America arose from its torpor and rallied its moral energy.

The Reagan Revolution could not have happened without another Great Awakening. Between mid-1960s and the mid-2000s, a great migration away from mainline churches toward conservative Christian denominations transformed America’s religious landscape. There were many reasons for the resurgence of evangelical Christianity, but one of them surely is the example of the real, living people of Israel. If the idea of Israel was powerful enough to motivate the American journey at our founding, a fortiori the restoration of the living Israel to its ancient homeland resonated powerfully among American Christians. The fulfillment of God’s promise to the Jewish people after 2,000 years of exile was marvelous in the eyes of American Christians. The question never was whether America would save Israel, but whether Israel would save America.

For good reasons, we have the only national anthem that concludes with a question: “Does that star-spangled banner yet wave/ O’er the land of the free and the home of the brave?” Francis Scott Key’s work belongs to the sparse genre of great poems by awful poets (another is “The Battle Hymn of the Republic”). Great stress may concentrate the thoughts of a mediocre versifier, like coal into diamonds, and that is what the Battle of Fort McHenry did for Key in 1814. The first light of the dawn has come. The bombardment has ceased. The poet demands that the listener say whether he still can see the flag above the ramparts. It is a fearsome moment; the hearer has watched through the night, and in a few moments he will see in the first light of day whether the flag is still there. All the fears of the nightly vigil peak in those few moments of anticipation. More than that: The hopes and fears of generations hang upon what the listener will espy as day breaks, as the poet demands an answer.

And then the poet repeats the injunction “Say!” and reverses the question: The flag, the object kept in suspense, no longer is the object of the poem. The vigil through the nocturnal bombardment, the fleeting view of the national colors, the moment of truth in the gathering light of dawn—these are a metaphor for the national condition. Key addresses the second “Say!” to all generations of Americans: Are you still brave enough to be free? Like Israel, we chose to be what we are, and every generation must make that choice for itself.

Lincoln warned that his Second Inaugural address would not be popular because “Men are not flattered by being shown that there is a difference of purpose between the Almighty and them. To deny it, though, in this case would be to deny that there is a God governing the world.” And he was right. We have locked Lincoln up in a marble box on the Washington Mall, in a mock-up of the Temple of Zeus at Olympus. There he sleeps, like Barbarossa in a cave under the Kyffhäuser. God help America’s enemies when he wakes.

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To: THE ANT who wrote (199558)6/17/2023 3:15:44 AM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 217764
 
Stuff

thezman.com

The Terrifying Narrative

Posted on June 13, 2023

Note: American Renaissance is having its annual conference in August at the usual location in Tennessee. It is a great event and anyone who is interested in the sort of politics discussed here should make it there at least once. You can sign up for the event at the American Renaissance website.

Depending upon who is doing the reporting, the great Ukrainian counter-offensive is now entering its second week, or the pre-counter-offensive probing maneuver is winding down in preparation for the long-awaited counter-offensive. However, it is described, the Ukrainians are conducting largescale offensive operations at several places using the Western armor. We know this because of the images of German Leopard tanks on fire that we are seeing online.

It is far too early to draw any conclusions about the success or lack of success of this new operation, but it is clear that we are seeing another example of how Western leaders came to believe the narratives they created in the information war. This is an increasing phenomenon where the information production centers of the managerial class create narratives so compelling that the managerial elite confuses these manufactured realities with genuine reality.

In this case, the manufactured reality said that the Russian defensive lines were undermanned and under supplied. Despite the daily display of firepower, the Russians are running out of everything. On top of that, morale in the Russian ranks is low due to the fact the Russian army is composed of conscripted peasants. The narrative that evolved over the last six months of hyping the offensive is that as soon as Western tanks appeared, the Russians would scatter.

This explains why the Ukrainians used the most advanced armor in their assault on Russians lines in the south. The images of destroyed Leopard 2 tanks, Bradley Fighting Vehicles and Finnish mine clearly tanks that have been all over the internet the last week tell the story. This frontal assault with the best Western equipment was supposed to be a promotional vehicle for the benefits of arming Ukraine with the weapons it needs to drive the Russians all the way back to Moscow.

What happened instead was a disaster for Ukraine. In the south, they launched attacks on three areas, all of which got bogged down in minefields. As the Ukrainians tried to maneuver out of the minefields, the Russians attacked them with Lancet drones, KA-52 attack helicopters and artillery. Depending upon who is telling the story, Ukraine has already lost between fifteen and thirty percent of its Western armor and has yet to reach the first line of Russian defenses.

If we accept the Western number as fifteen percent, it is clear that these offensive operations will have a short duration. Keep in mind that the action so far has happened in the security zone of Russian defenses. This is the extreme outer layer used to detect how the enemy is approaching. Ukraine has yet to penetrate this area, which is lightly defended relative to the proper defensive lines. In order to reach the defensive lines, it means suffering massive losses in men and material.

What is remarkable about this is that the United States has spy satellites positioned over Ukraine. They have been providing Ukraine with intelligence from satellites for over a year. NATO has been providing targeting information along with the guided munitions they supply Ukraine. The United States operates the Global Hawk surveillance drone over the Black Sea. In other words, the West has been watching the Russians build their lines in real-time for months.

Despite what they clearly see happening, the narrative prevails. You see it in this detailed report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies. It goes into great detail about Russian defensive preparations. Woven throughout the report, however, is the familiar talking points about the inferiority of Russian equipment and the condition of the Russian military. When asked who they believe? The official narrative or their lying eyes, the writers chose the former.

That is the important part about understanding the power of narrative within the Western managerial elite. Disconfirmation is always met with an organized effort to force the contrary information onto the narrative. Maybe the narrative is tweaked to account for the new data, but the final chapter never changes. The good guys always win in the end and the West is always the good guys. After all, the lesson of history is that the good guys always win.

What we see happening is the narrative makers are converting the results on the battlefield into a new chapter of the story. In this chapter, the West supplies Ukraine with nuclear weapons. Note that this is cast as a defensive action. The superpower cries out in pain as it supplies Russia’s opponent with nukes. Note also that this policy paper is not produced by a random crank. AEI is one of the most influential and well-funded think tanks in Washington.

If that is not terrifying enough for you, there is now talk of letting NATO members “voluntarily” send troops into Ukraine. The Poles have already sent thousands of volunteers, but now there is talk of bring the Baltic states into the mix. The idea is to provide F-16 fighter jets with Western trained pilots from the eastern members of NATO in order to provide air cover for Ukrainian offensives. After all, the Russian army is ready to collapse so they just need one final push.

One of the enduring mysteries of the Great War is how the rulers on both sides kept at it despite the obvious futility of the war. Both sides remained convinced that the other was running on fumes. All they needed to do was keep up the pressure and the other side would eventually crack. They were right, in that the Germans did eventually crack, but not until the continent was reduced to rubble. Imagine if both sides even had crude nuclear weapons. That is where we are now.

That is the terrifying part of this war. Western leaders have become immune to reality, so they embrace narratives produced by people with their own interests. The neocons want to blow up the world. The military industrial complex wants to keep selling expensive weapons. The Ukrainian dictator needs the war to keep going in order to avoid assassination. Everyone involved has a reason to believe the narrative over their lying eyes, so reality remains on the sidelines.

The hope is that events on the ground will reach a point where the remaining sane people in power feel they must step in and stop the madness, but this Ukrainian offensive suggest reality is no match for a good story. Western managerial elites have evolved to the point where they now live in a world of their own creation. It is not hard to imagine them standing in front of a window with VR goggles strapped to their faces as a mushroom cloud forms on the horizon.

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