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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Mohan Marette who wrote (2148)2/14/1998 1:31:00 PM
From: Ramsey Su  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 9980
 
Mohan,

Forget about the merits of the Rupiah peg for a second and think about feasibility. If they peg the rupiah at 5000 to the dollar, there will be a rush to the banks to exchange rupiah into dollars. Foreign creditors will suggest rolling over loans in dollars vs rupiah. Soros' jet would have landed, shorting every rupiah that he can gets his hands on.

The peg would go down in history as the shortest ever. I wonder if it will survive one banking day. Then again, that would be all Suharto need to get his and his cronies rupiah out of the country in the form of dollars, because they will be first in line before the banks open.

These politicians are the same everywhere. Can't blame Clinton for trying to get ahead here and there. (can't resist a lighter side commend)

Ramsey



To: Mohan Marette who wrote (2148)2/14/1998 9:26:00 PM
From: yard_man  Respond to of 9980
 
I had the same gut reaction to the news as well.



To: Mohan Marette who wrote (2148)2/16/1998 3:53:00 AM
From: tom  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 9980
 
I agree with almost everything you say but the fact is they don't have any choice! It's currency board or death. The IMF et al are all saying that they're against it for bargaining reasons. If they thought that Suharto would go through with the reforms then they would be happy with it.

Don't forget that currency boards are perfect for countries on the brink of meltdown. Bosnia has one that works fine and they haven't had the easiest of times recently