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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (14115)2/14/1998 4:08:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed  Respond to of 18056
 
George, I doubt very much that we will see 9000 during any time in the first half this year. I believe that the Asian malaise is going to return (and is already getting there with failures of the Nikkei at 17,000, Hong-Kong at 11,000, Korea retracing half the ground gained etc.) and with it the malaise here. The tech have shown some very good resiliency in face of less than rosy looking forward statements (and some stocks like VECO and CYMI are starting to look very bullish), but once this resiliency (and the liquidity that fuel it)is spent, I think that the reality of less than rosy future earnings, will take hold. Short term I think we may run 100 to 200 Dow points at most (but fear that even that will not come through and by Wed. we may start and turn tail). Medium term, until the middle of the year, I think we could go down about 400 Dow point (to 7950 or so) and then rally again, but my fear are now starting to concentrate on the late August area for a "post summer rally" major decline, possibly below 7950 and all the way to around 7600 (where the recent decline was halted).

Zeev