To: Oeconomicus who wrote (7352 ) 2/14/1998 7:50:00 PM From: Bill Harmond Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 27307
>>Surely there must be some convincing reason for buying here. I don't think you can be convinced because your mind is made up, but I'll take a shot at this challenge. I bought more Yahoo last week at 64 and change. I posted the trade. Yahoo has moved up ahead of market perceptions. Stocks that do that and maintain the price in spite of controversy usually know more than the market does. There isn't an argument that the shorts have made in the last year that has mattered. Let's look at these latest two, and see if they matter either: AOL will use it's $2 increase to compete on CPM in the advertising marketplace. Yeah, right. AOL will cut off it's nose to spite its face. AOL will wreck a good thing. And even if they did, Yahoo is 20% sold out, so it's not too hard for Yahoo to compete on price too, without risking a dime in revenue. Lower CPM's would bring in more advertisers, and the rates on the most costly pages would probably not change. The commerce deals and prospects would be unaffected. The Amazon checks would still roll in. The search-word rents would be unaffected. I don't see much to worry about. AOL isn't the industry any longer. Yahoo will pass AOL in advertising revenue and Cendant will pass AOL in commerce. It's only a matter of time. Yahoo has more users than AOL, and is growing faster. Cendant has six times AOL's membership and three times AOL's market cap. Banner-filtering software. DOA. Non-issue. Want an ad-supported page but insist on filtering-out ads, you won't get the page. Doesn't seem like rocket science to me. One important thing I learned early in media is the power is behind the tube, not in front of it. Lets say that the industry can't figure a work-around and ad-filtering software really works. How many people really care? Not many. VCR usage (and the obvious ad-filtering) hasn't meant anything to television rates.