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Technology Stocks : Cohu, Inc. (COHU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (7556)	7/11/2023 11:58:07 AM
From: robert b furman	1 Recommendation Recommended By the longhorn Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 7822

Cohu's decline from the recent high of $42.60 appears to be heading toward the following significant numbers: 50 day sma @ $37.71 .38 fibonacci retrace @ $37.71 both possible coincident support. (now violated and trading below 37.00). Possible retraces to (50% retrace) @ $36.69 and (68% retrace) @ $35.68, and (78% retrace @ $34.23). This may represent price action of minor corrective subwave of the iii wave of long term 3 impulse wave up. iii of 3's are often the most powerful. Since the two wave was very complex, it sets up the 4 wave to be quick and not complex. Wave 1 gained 42.97 points ( $51.86-$8.89) .618 of of 42.97 = 26.55 points plus the end of 2 @ $32.36 = $58.90 1.618 of 42.97 = $69.52 plus the end of 2 @ 32.36 = 101.88 That's quite a range and a very long term view. This subwave iii started @ $32.36 on April 27th 2023, when subwave two ended after a complex abc x abc x abc which descended from the high of (i) of $51.86 on February 8th 2021. So we are correcting in the first wave of iii after the end of ii. This is part of a major up wave 3 which will most likely run out of gas at the high of (i) @ $51.86. This major wave 3 started back in March 2020 @ a low of 8.89 (almost a 6 bagger). Hopefully we'll have a difficult decision on whether Cohu powers past the double top to reach the first fib target of $58.90. So a range of $51.26 to $58.90. If those lofty levels are reached, I'll scale out by selling 500 share lots on 1/3 of my position. That will put me on the market's money and I'll scale out an additional 5,000 shares every 5 to 10 points beyond $60.00. 5 points if it is like pulling teeth and ten points if it fast price rise action. Since the clx offsets are difficult for the next two weeks, their may well be more down to endure. The 38% and 50% retrace retrace is usually the resistance level to watch on a ii wave - it has been said they reach one of those levels 72% of the time. Cohu is tentatively scheduled to report earnings on August 3rd AH. That gives us 3 weeks in which to grab a low ball bid before earnings. EW masters far better than my self have offered a wave iii target of $51.26. The .618 fib extension is $58.90. Both good places to get out your seed money and hail Mary the rest. Cohu has taken a long time to become the cash flow power house it is with the recurring service business and its global footprint. So too have LRCX, AMAT and KLAC. Cohu to a smaller revenue degree, has achieved scale in a less expensive type of equipment. It has global dominance and its equipment has a big impact on the cost of testing 80% of every chip produced in the world. I have believed that for decades. If and when one of the above equipment powerhouses realize that, it could well be taken out and not reach its very long term potential. That's my story, I can't prove it, but I'm sticking to it. Either way, my bet is it will be a huge wealth creation moment for those who buy on dips and have great patience. My vision of the future includes exponential growth of all kinds of chips and they all get 100% tested. There are advanced packaging techniques that cover about 20% of chips made globally and Cohu has other competitors in WCSP (what Cohu calls Wafer Chip Scale Packaging and Brooks calls (advanced packaging techniques). Those chips are predominantly found in mobile handsets. Best of trades to all here who endured a long slow but profitable climb. Hold with confidence! Bob