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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CYBERKEN who wrote (15115)	2/14/1998 9:45:00 PM
From: Andreas Helke	Respond to of 32384

Investors frequently demonstrate that they are ready to pay 3 times of what a company should be worth. For example paying $65 for a share of the Amazon.com internet bookstore. I think Amazon today deserves a price of about $20. With Ligand I think a price of $30 would be perfectly justified today. 3 times that would approach triple digits. I am beginning to understand why Henry thinks that he still has a chance to win his $30 by august bet. Two years ago I bought some shares of Amati Communications a leading company in ADSL and VDSL. Those are hot new technologies to send huge amounts of data over a phone line. I paid $5.69 per share. Short after that Amati began a rally that brought the price to $36 in two months. I knew that at $36 was totally overvalued but I thought that if people paid $36 when the future was still hazy they might pay $50 or $60 when the technology would be deployed one or two years later. That proved to be an error. After its trip into totally overvalued territory the price went back to $10 then to $25 then a dip to $7.50 and ended as $20 cash from Texas Instuments last december. Amati had ran out of cash and was therefore shopping itself. My experience with Amati has shown that the shares of a promising company can produce impressive rallies. As a biotech example Agouron went up from $15 to $50 in about half a year in expectation of the Viracept NDA. Andreas