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Technology Stocks : BORL: Time to BUY! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Lewis Edinburg who wrote (9117)2/14/1998 9:59:00 PM
From: Sam Scrutchins  Respond to of 10836
 
Institutions (3 Months) 46.30%
Insiders (6 Months) 17.05%

****

If there is that much less amount of stock in active trading, will that tend to keep the price where it is, or worse yet, to push it down?


I don't know about the rest of you, but it seems particularly positive to me that 63.35% of Borland's stock is held by investors who, for the most part, are likely to want to hold the stock for much higher prices. In the absense of the Visigenic merger (should be interesting to know the same data for VSGN), less than 14 million shares of Borland are available as float. I, for one, have a few thousand of these shares as an individual investor, and mine are NOT available for float. Given that others are probably like me, that should leave less than 10 million shares available for purchase in the short term. Also, given that around 3 million shares are shorted, that tells me that the upside potential could be explosive.

There are bound to be more institutions which take an interest in Borland as the news of the company's recovery and bright future prospects gets around. In fact, this stock could move up strongly on the tight supply regardless of the fundamentals. The technicals seem to support this with the little flags that keep forming, followed by upside breakouts. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see another upside breakout next week if the greater market cooperates. What we could really use is a buy recommendation following the publication of the 10% institutional purchase just announced.

From my perspective as an investor, I want to be able to anticipate the point at which these institutions begin to sell their long-term holdings. However, I think we will see the 20's or higher before that happens. Another couple of positive quarters in Del's 8-quarter turnaround, could achieve this sort of buying frenzy and price appreciation. I hope the news stays as good as it has been.

Just my 2 cents.

Sam



To: Lewis Edinburg who wrote (9117)2/14/1998 10:17:00 PM
From: TChai  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10836
 
what would this tend to mean about future price of BORL stock?

That's economic 101. If you have less supply of something even at the same level of demand, prices go up. In this case, 10% of BI is less than 50M, an amount which is laughable for many of the institutions. If the perception about the company changes, it will only take a small amount of buying from these institutions to make things very ugly, very quickly for the shorts and the call writers.

As God prepares to go before the senate hearing next week. If he is asked about the anti-competitive behavior toward BI by the raiding of the rank and file last year, be prepared when he whips out the poster child. And show how MS encourages competition (witness Gross's statements, MS PDC), and the mention of how well BI is doing. This could be the national attention that Mr. Yocam mentioned that it's hard to get. One way or the other, the Wizards of Scotts Valley will change the perception of BI to the investment community, but it'll be faster with the help of God.

With less and less shares to go around, the stage is set for a head on collision between the Yocam's Express and short sellers and (Wade Cook's students) call writers. It's not going to be a pretty sight when the shorts get squeeeeeezed, but the bulls will be smiling :-) It's payback times.

All aboard the Yocam's Rally.