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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jeff nightbyrd who wrote (3018)	2/15/1998 11:58:00 PM
From: Dan Lisman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

Jeff, AOL is making lots of customers mad by raising their rates. At first I thought this would be good for "shorts". Later, I decided that the only AOL to ISP deserters would be the experienced "heavy time low profit" users. The newbies and Grandmas will be glad to pay an extra 10 percent for "hand-holding". Chasing off the HOGS and keeping the rabbits will just add to AOL's profit margin. I've been bitten before trying to short AOL's high P/E with reason and common sense. Wait until the momentum stops (maybe 3 months). Dan

To: jeff nightbyrd who wrote (3018)	2/16/1998 8:03:00 AM
From: TAPDOG	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

Jeff- I think that AOL is a high beta proxy for the market as a whole. If the market continues higher there will be many fund managers and individuals who want to own "internet stocks". As people are impressed by the growth of the net they want to bet on the future of the net. AOL is overvalued amd is probably not the way to do that, but it has the greatest name recognition right now and since the bet is on the distant future, there is no short term catalyst to bring it down. YHOO, however, is facing short term competition: from AOL, MSFT, LCOS, etc. It may lose its position as premier search engine and would then lose lose its price premium. Personally, I've lost money trying to short both AOL and YHOO. Right now I'm out of AOL and short YHOO. The irony is that I don't use AOL but I use YHOO all the time.