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To: Bill Harmond who wrote (7358)2/15/1998 4:31:00 AM
From: Don Earl  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 27307
 
Hi William,

The volume has been dropping off steadily with the recent increase in price. It's been my experience that kind of pattern normally precedes a sharp drop. The volume to push it through resistance just isn't there. The sell offs on the peaks happen FAST. I've also noticed that spreads tend to get bigger close to a top. The momentum that was pushing it to new highs in November and December is gone.

Were not talking about Microsoft here. Were talking about a company that has lost 61 cents per share since they went public two years ago. The stock has a very volatile history. 50 to 17 to 50 to 35 to 70 to .....? Why would it all of a sudden go up forever without repeating that pattern of volatility? It's interesting to watch the analysts go from "BUY!!! BUY!!! BUY!!!" to "Good company but kinda pricey." to "HOLD!!! HOLD!!! HOLD!!!". Were at about the middle of the "Good company but kinda pricey." stage. Personally, I have a pretty low opinion of the way analysts are allowed to manipulate the market, but that doesn't change the fact that they do.

I figure another week of mid 60s on light volume then over the edge. Probably be looking at half point or better spreads by the end of the week.

Regards,

Don

PS My crystal ball is second hand and has proven to be unreliable at times. My opinion is not intended to be investment advise.