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To: Vattila who wrote (50849)	8/1/2023 2:22:31 PM
From: Pravin Kamdar	Respond to of 72178

Regarding the Reddit estimates, mostly a bunch of newbies with stock bet mentality. A few with the likes of this board. I just go there to find links that I had not found.

To: Vattila who wrote (50849)	8/1/2023 2:44:27 PM
From: rzborusa	Respond to of 72178

If I were placing a large bet I could have made my guess for Outlook at 6.01B, and that would be the high est. I guess I am sort of like the carried away Redit gang. lol

To: Vattila who wrote (50849)	8/1/2023 3:12:57 PM
From: Joe NYC	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 72178

Thanks for getting the last entries in. Lisa and Jean were talking about very high growth rate for server in H2. The fact that Intel went up 1 billion in client revenue is foreshadowing another client side market share loss. While the desirability of the client processor may be 50:50 between AMD and Intel, the market share of processors sold is going to be almost back to Bulldozer era. The lowest in 5 to 10 years. So either extreme mismanagement of client business or extreme manipulation of the market by Intel. Last quarter, Lisa said nothing about correcting this problem. It's as if AMD doesn't think this is a problem. If they said nothing about correcting the problem, likely nothing was corrected, and with Intel client numbers out, Pat Gelsinger is just doubling down on the tactics, rolling over the incompetent AMD management Anyway, even if datacenter picks up, client CPU, client GPU, gaming, Xilinx, none of them are likely going to have a breakout performance, all probably between slightly down, flat and slightly up. So there is a lot for the datacenter CPU to overcome to have a very positive guidance. AI will likely not have meaningful revenue in Q3. Maybe Q4, but not much to go into Q3 guidance. Anyway, that's the background for my low outlook number...

To: Vattila who wrote (50849)	8/1/2023 4:19:35 PM
From: neolib	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 72178

0.58, 5.4B, 5.7B So the surprise was that client did rebound a couple 100M, while indeed Xilinx was down QoQ.

To: Vattila who wrote (50849)

8/1/2023 8:43:25 PM

From: Vattila

Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 72178

AMD 2023-Q2 EPS Contest (non-GAAP) — Results

Reported Results:		$0.58	$5.36B	$5.70B ± 0.30B
Rank	User	EPS	Revenue	Outlook
1	neolib	$0.58	$5.30B	$5.70B
2	Joe NYC	$0.58	$5.30B	$5.60B
-	Zacks Estimate	$0.57	$5.32B	$5.86B
-	Bing Chat	$0.59	$5.28B	$5.75B
3	Vattila	$0.60	$5.35B	$6.00B
4	Kelvin C.P. Wang	$0.60	$5.40B	$6.00B
5	rzborusa	$0.56	$5.29B	$6.34B
6	Pravin Kamdar	$0.55	$5.40B	$5.80B

Both Neolib and Joe hit bullseye on EPS, but Neolib also hit bullseye on the outlook, which edged him ahead on the second tiebreaker. Well done to both, as they managed to also beat Zacks and Bing! Following Bing, with a very near hit on the revenue, is my entry, just edging ahead of Kelvin.

Although Pravin ended up last, he does better on the leaderboard, where every category has equal weight. Here he is just ever so slightly beaten by Neolib. Joe follows closely in third place. Notably, we are all lagging both Zacks and Bing, which now hold the top spots on the leaderboard.

Thanks to all for playing!

---

Scoreboards

Note that, unlike the main EPS Contest, which is primarily ranked by EPS, these boards are ranked by overall score, which is an equally weighted average of subscores. Scores are calculated as (1+error)^-2 per quarter and normalized for the year by sum(scores)/4. The squaring of the denominator in the score calculation is just done to spread out the scores a little. There is no explicit relative weighting of EPS and revenue error, i.e. a 1 cent error in EPS equals a $10M error in revenue.

AMD 2023 EPS Contest Scores

2023 Leaderboard

Rank	User	Entries	EPS score	Revenue score	Outlook score	Overall score
-	Zacks Estimate	2	0.48	0.46	0.37	0.4342
-	Bing Chat	2	0.47	0.44	0.35	0.4224
1	neolib	2	0.49	0.40	0.37	0.4184
2	Pravin Kamdar	2	0.48	0.46	0.32	0.4172
3	Joe NYC	2	0.49	0.45	0.30	0.4131
4	Vattila	2	0.49	0.43	0.28	0.3983
5	rzborusa	2	0.49	0.45	0.24	0.3921
6	Kelvin C.P. Wang	2	0.49	0.42	0.25	0.3837

2023 Quarterly average

Rank	User	Entries	EPS score	Revenue score	Outlook score	Overall score
-	Zacks Estimate	2	0.95	0.92	0.74	0.8684
-	Bing Chat	2	0.94	0.88	0.71	0.8448
1	neolib	2	0.98	0.79	0.74	0.8369
2	Pravin Kamdar	2	0.95	0.92	0.64	0.8344
3	Joe NYC	2	0.97	0.90	0.61	0.8261
4	Vattila	2	0.97	0.87	0.55	0.7966
5	rzborusa	2	0.98	0.89	0.48	0.7842
6	Kelvin C.P. Wang	2	0.97	0.84	0.49	0.7674

AMD 2022 EPS Contest Scores

2022 Full year scores

Rank	User	Entries	EPS score	Revenue score	Outlook score	Overall score
-	Zacks Estimate	4	0.92	0.83	0.62	0.7895
1	Joe NYC	4	0.82	0.72	0.75	0.7618
2	neolib	4	0.90	0.73	0.65	0.7617
3	Vattila	4	0.87	0.84	0.51	0.7390
4	Pravin Kamdar	4	0.81	0.71	0.69	0.7371
5	rzborusa	4	0.81	0.73	0.56	0.7020
6	Kelvin C.P. Wang	4	0.84	0.75	0.48	0.6925
7	gvatty	2	0.48	0.38	0.30	0.3848
8	fastpathguru	1	0.15	0.10	0.06	0.1038

2022 Quarterly average

Rank	User	Entries	EPS score	Revenue score	Outlook score	Overall score
-	Zacks Estimate	4	0.92	0.83	0.62	0.7895
1	gvatty	2	0.95	0.75	0.60	0.7696
2	Joe NYC	4	0.82	0.72	0.75	0.7618
3	neolib	4	0.90	0.73	0.65	0.7617
4	Vattila	4	0.87	0.84	0.51	0.7390
5	Pravin Kamdar	4	0.81	0.71	0.69	0.7371
6	rzborusa	4	0.81	0.73	0.56	0.7020
7	Kelvin C.P. Wang	4	0.84	0.75	0.48	0.6925
8	fastpathguru	1	0.59	0.42	0.24	0.4153

AMD 2021 EPS Contest Scores

2021 Full year scores

Rank	User	Entries	EPS score	Revenue score	Outlook score	Overall score
1	Kelvin C.P. Wang	4	0.93	0.86	0.72	0.8397
2	Joe NYC	4	0.94	0.88	0.69	0.8367
3	rzborusa	4	0.95	0.78	0.70	0.8105
4	Pravin Kamdar	4	0.93	0.75	0.75	0.8101
5	gvatty	4	0.93	0.81	0.69	0.8068
6	Vattila	4	0.92	0.77	0.71	0.7966
-	Zacks Estimate	4	0.83	0.65	0.53	0.6694
7	neolib	3	0.71	0.66	0.61	0.6614
8	engineer	1	0.24	0.18	0.21	0.2111
9	fastpathguru	1	0.23	0.18	0.15	0.1852
10	eetnoyer	1	0.20	0.17	0.10	0.1556

2021 Quarterly average

Rank	User	Entries	EPS score	Revenue score	Outlook score	Overall score
1	neolib	3	0.95	0.88	0.82	0.8819
2	engineer	1	0.96	0.73	0.84	0.8445
3	Kelvin C.P. Wang	4	0.93	0.86	0.72	0.8397
4	Joe NYC	4	0.94	0.88	0.69	0.8367
5	rzborusa	4	0.95	0.78	0.70	0.8105
6	Pravin Kamdar	4	0.93	0.75	0.75	0.8101
7	gvatty	4	0.93	0.81	0.69	0.8068
8	Vattila	4	0.92	0.77	0.71	0.7966
9	fastpathguru	1	0.92	0.71	0.59	0.7408
-	Zacks Estimate	4	0.83	0.65	0.53	0.6694
10	eetnoyer	1	0.78	0.68	0.40	0.6222

AMD 2020 EPS Contest Scores

2020 Full year scores

Rank	User	Entries	EPS score	Revenue score	Outlook score	Overall score
1	Vattila	4	0.95	0.85	0.65	0.8169
2	neolib	4	0.98	0.80	0.61	0.7972
-	Zacks Estimate	4	0.94	0.79	0.62	0.7856
3	Pravin Kamdar	3	0.72	0.62	0.50	0.6128
4	rzborusa	3	0.69	0.57	0.47	0.5812
5	Kelvin C.P. Wang	1	0.24	0.23	0.17	0.2150
6	jc474	1	0.23	0.19	0.19	0.2020

2020 Quarterly average

Rank	User	Entries	EPS score	Revenue score	Outlook score	Overall score
1	Kelvin C.P. Wang	1	0.96	0.92	0.69	0.8601
2	Pravin Kamdar	3	0.96	0.83	0.66	0.8171
3	Vattila	4	0.95	0.85	0.65	0.8169
4	jc474	1	0.92	0.74	0.76	0.8080
5	neolib	4	0.98	0.80	0.61	0.7972
-	Zacks Estimate	4	0.94	0.79	0.62	0.7856
6	rzborusa	3	0.93	0.76	0.63	0.7749

AMD 2019 EPS Contest Scores

2019 Full year scores

Rank	User	Entries	EPS score	Revenue score	Outlook score	Overall score
-	Zacks Estimate	4	0.99	0.97	0.96	0.9708
1	Vattila	4	0.98	0.96	0.84	0.9264
2	Pravin Kamdar	4	0.98	0.95	0.84	0.9258
3	rzborusa	3	0.73	0.70	0.70	0.7106
4	neolib	3	0.73	0.72	0.65	0.6977
5	knykny	2	0.49	0.46	0.40	0.4496
6	gzubeck	2	0.46	0.37	0.32	0.3822
7	THE WATSONYOUTH	1	0.25	0.24	0.25	0.2468
8	FUBHO	1	0.21	0.20	0.25	0.2199
9	Harvey Allen	1	0.20	0.17	0.25	0.2058

2019 Quarterly average

Rank	User	Entries	EPS score	Revenue score	Outlook score	Overall score
1	THE WATSONYOUTH	1	1.00	0.96	1.00	0.9871
-	Zacks Estimate	4	0.99	0.97	0.96	0.9708
2	rzborusa	3	0.97	0.93	0.94	0.9475
3	neolib	3	0.97	0.96	0.87	0.9303
4	Vattila	4	0.98	0.96	0.84	0.9264
5	Pravin Kamdar	4	0.98	0.95	0.84	0.9258
6	knykny	2	0.97	0.93	0.80	0.8991
7	FUBHO	1	0.84	0.80	1.00	0.8796
8	Harvey Allen	1	0.80	0.67	1.00	0.8230
9	gzubeck	2	0.92	0.73	0.64	0.7643